About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Jul 22
For the week ended Jul 15, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 473.2 5.0 7588.8 8841.3 5205.1 5.0
hrw 137.0 0.0 2490.0 3313.6 1631.1 0.0
srw 184.6 5.0 1300.0 889.2 967.4 5.0
hrs 113.5 0.0 2275.3 2608.4 1533.0 0.0
white 38.0 0.0 1473.3 1668.4 1065.1 0.0
durum 0.0 0.0 50.1 361.8 8.4 0.0
corn -88.5 47.7 69770.6 43710.3 9019.4 16127.4
soybeans 62.0 176.3 61988.0 46394.5 3132.2 9864.9
soymeal 68.3 19.1 11589.6 11410.2 2069.7 1057.3
soyoil 0.7 0.0 677.2 1244.1 16.9 0.6
upland cotton 40.0 251.9 16190.8 17006.2 1825.3 2972.4
pima cotton 3.4 0.9 837.1 594.4 103.3 5.4
sorghum -52.2 0.0 7178.3 4360.3 710.9 1594.9
barley 0.0 0.0 25.1 38.7 23.5 0.0
rice 73.2 5.4 3428.3 3363.4 369.7 25.3

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were higher yesterday on better demand ideas. The market is also hearing about too wet weather in China and Europe and dry conditions in southern Russia and Kazakhstan. It has been very cold in South America and the winter crops are in trouble in Brazil and Paraguay. The bad weather is coming back as hot and dry conditions are in the forecast for the northern Great Plains and the Canadian Prairies for the next couple of weeks. Even so, Minneapolis was lower as correction trading continued there. White Winter Wheat production is also being hurt as both have been impacted by drought and heat this year. Yield reports have generally been good in Winter Wheat areas but there have been mixed results reported in some Great Plains states. Quality has been generally good. Europe has had too much rain and Russia and Kazakhstan have had too little. Kazakhstan has moved to limit Wheat exports for this year. World prices might have bottomed and should start to move higher, supporting Wheat futures markets in the US.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near normal. Northern areas should see mostly isolated showers. Temperatures will be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with no objectives. Support is at 694, 676, and 658 September, with resistance at 718, 724, and 748 September. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 681 September. Support is at 649, 645, and 638 September, with resistance at 674, 686, and 692 September. Trends in Minneapolis are up with no objectives. Support is at 897, 859, and 849 September, and resistance is at 948, 954, and 960 September.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed higher yesterday. The market expects smaller production this year due to reduced planted area and some weather extremes seen through the growing season to date. Growing conditions have been mixed at best with many areas getting too much rain. Rice areas have generally been wet. Louisiana and parts of Mississippi were saturated and are still reported to be wetter than desired for strong production and good quality. Warm temperatures are reported in Arkansas and Missouri and the crop progress is improving. However, it is still very wet in Arkansas. Texas has also been wet. Export demand has been disappointing and Asian prices are trending lower.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1319, 1302, and 1298 September, with resistance at 1334, 1340, and 1357 September.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn was a little higher as Crude Oil rallied. Corn did not react that much to the big rally in Crude Oil as there were political moves being made to try to end all mandates for bio fuels in Washington. Supporters of the move argue that it is too expensive for refineries to use ethanol in blends. President Biden is committed to using bio fuels including ethanol in the US so the bill is not likely to become law anytime soon. Northern and western Midwest areas and the northern Great Plains are turning hot and dry again. The growing conditions in the US are highly variable and not likely to produce trend line yields. Traders are reducing yield estimates from the USDA report of 179.5 bushels per acre to more like 174 bushels per acre and ideas are that more adverse weather could drive yields lower. No one is talking much about increasing yield estimates right now. Ideas are that Brazil Corn production will be less than 90 million tons so reduced production estimates are expected in coming reports. Oats were higher once again. Canadian Oats areas look to get some rain in the next couple of weeks, but US areas showed mixed conditions in the weekly USDA updates. Longer range forecasts released by NWS call for warmer and drier weather for many important US growing areas this Summer.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 584, 599, and 607 September.. Support is at 570, 561, and 549 September, and resistance is at 579, 588, and 598 September. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 483 September. Support is at 452, 440, and 424 September, and resistance is at 462, 470, and 473 September.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were mixed. Soybean Meal was higher and Soybean Oil was lower. The move in Soybean Oil comes as there were political moves being made to try to end all mandates for bio fuels in Washington. Supporters of the move argue that it is too expensive for refineries to use ethanol in blends. President Biden is committed to using bio fuels including ethanol in the US so the bill is not likely to become law anytime soon. on production concerns as the US weather forecast returned to the forefront. There are many areas that do not have good Soybeans in the US. Soybeans conditions in central production area are often too wet and have suffered. The weather forecasts changed to wetter and cooler and the crop needs dry conditions and some heat . Minnesota and northern Iowa and the Dakotas have been very hot and dry but Iowa got very beneficial rain last week. Forecasts call for warmer weather this week in the Midwest and northern Great Plains, and it should generally be dry. Warmer and drier outlooks are offered through at least the end of this month. The longer range forecasts from NWS call for warmer and drier than normal conditions for most Soybeans areas of the US.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1425, 1418, and 1408 August, and resistance is at 1450, 1480, and 1492 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 358.00, 351.00, and 347.00 August, and resistance is at 371.00, 375.00, and 379.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 6380, 6180, and 5940 August, with resistance at 6660, 6820, and 6970

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were lower on weaker export data for the month to date from the private surveyors. Trends are still up on the daily charts. The private surveyors showed more demand for last month in reports issued last week and ideas are that the stronger demand can continue as India has cut its import taxes. Canola closed lower along with Spring Wheat futures and on demand concerns. Trends are still up longer term, but are mixed short term and weather concerns continue. It remains generally dry and is turning warmer in the Prairies. The showers last week have a chance to be very beneficial as the Prairies crops are in big trouble now due to previous hot and dry weather. Demand has improved.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 856.00, 844.00, and 836.00 November, with resistance at 893.00, 932.00, and 949.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 4340 October. Support is at 4080, 4000, and 3960 October, with resistance at 4220, 4280, and 4340 October.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Isolated showers north and west, showers and storms south and east. Temperatures should average near normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June July May May May
July July July July
August July July July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jul 21
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 984.10 75.00 Nov 2021 up 11.00
Basis: Thunder Bay 919.90 40.00 Nov 2021 dn 29.20
Basis: Vancouver 949.90 70.00 Nov 2021 dn 29.20
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell
204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – July 22
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 1097.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Sept 1067.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1000.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 952.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 1100.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Sept 1070.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1002.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 955.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 1045.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 1000.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 4,450.00 +50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 302.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.221)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jul 22
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 169,883 lots, or 9.63 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-21 5,693 5,693 5,623 5,627 5,683 5,650 -33 122,062 94,695
Nov-21 5,700 5,714 5,664 5,674 5,716 5,692 -24 22,723 80,814
Jan-22 5,727 5,738 5,688 5,691 5,739 5,711 -28 10,217 23,912
Mar-22 5,720 5,739 5,687 5,699 5,737 5,713 -24 8,370 15,813
May-22 5,761 5,792 5,745 5,752 5,796 5,763 -33 173 1,049
Jul-22 5,798 5,798 5,740 5,757 5,798 5,765 -33 6,338 2,054
Corn
Turnover: 620,179 lots, or 15.66 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-21 2,519 2,532 2,506 2,512 2,525 2,520 -5 448,619 674,463
Nov-21 2,526 2,535 2,515 2,521 2,528 2,527 -1 43,945 249,901
Jan-22 2,532 2,545 2,527 2,532 2,540 2,536 -4 94,052 268,276
Mar-22 2,549 2,555 2,541 2,545 2,549 2,548 -1 29,645 57,457
May-22 2,585 2,589 2,577 2,581 2,583 2,582 -1 3,059 15,789
Jul-22 2,595 2,600 2,588 2,588 2,594 2,593 -1 859 2,277
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,291,894 lots, or 47.05 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-21 3,710 3,710 3,628 3,628 3,685 3,659 -26 25 813
Sep-21 3,686 3,696 3,618 3,622 3,692 3,653 -39 827,007 991,347
Nov-21 3,714 3,720 3,644 3,649 3,712 3,685 -27 49,566 58,314
Dec-21 3,703 3,710 3,636 3,642 3,699 3,681 -18 14,852 31,488
Jan-22 3,681 3,689 3,617 3,621 3,670 3,650 -20 326,985 628,665
Mar-22 3,526 3,535 3,470 3,473 3,513 3,501 -12 25,411 278,534
May-22 3,426 3,444 3,380 3,382 3,420 3,405 -15 45,951 91,600
Jul-22 3,405 3,432 3,356 3,366 3,400 3,382 -18 2,097 5,876
Palm Oil
Turnover: 930,932 lots, or 74.68 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-21 – – – 8,428 8,428 8,428 0 0 13
Sep-21 8,098 8,152 8,004 8,106 8,132 8,076 -56 820,595 403,606
Oct-21 7,960 7,980 7,830 7,914 7,970 7,896 -74 10,355 37,837
Nov-21 7,826 7,856 7,726 7,796 7,826 7,796 -30 4,773 40,497
Dec-21 7,714 7,748 7,610 7,686 7,744 7,672 -72 8,099 56,482
Jan-22 7,602 7,654 7,502 7,574 7,650 7,572 -78 75,813 114,647
Feb-22 7,598 7,598 7,450 7,530 7,612 7,502 -110 3,724 8,737
Mar-22 7,510 7,574 7,426 7,496 7,582 7,484 -98 3,842 4,228
Apr-22 7,410 7,510 7,366 7,430 7,510 7,428 -82 2,931 3,278
May-22 7,366 7,414 7,280 7,330 7,382 7,338 -44 796 4,926
Jun-22 7,250 7,250 7,230 7,230 7,360 7,240 -120 2 21
Jul-22 7,150 7,150 7,150 7,150 7,256 7,150 -106 2 6
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 864,072 lots, or 76.65 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-21 8,804 8,804 8,804 8,804 8,814 8,804 -10 1 146
Sep-21 8,940 8,996 8,824 8,884 8,976 8,904 -72 719,986 386,986
Nov-21 8,824 8,910 8,754 8,812 8,892 8,832 -60 30,576 53,363
Dec-21 8,806 8,828 8,676 8,740 8,806 8,744 -62 15,623 74,298
Jan-22 8,706 8,748 8,600 8,652 8,720 8,664 -56 87,417 174,599
Mar-22 8,570 8,606 8,460 8,516 8,590 8,530 -60 7,733 21,063
May-22 8,380 8,398 8,252 8,308 8,364 8,318 -46 2,163 5,645
Jul-22 8,300 8,320 8,198 8,248 8,292 8,268 -24 573 4,328
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322