About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were higher yesterday as the weather in the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains bad for production and on better demand ideas. The market is also hearing about too wet weather in China and Europe and dry conditions in southern Russia and Kazakhstan. It has been very cold in South America and the winter crops are in trouble in Brazil and Paraguay. The bad weather is coming back as hot and dry conditions are in the forecast for the northern Great Plains and the Canadian Prairies for the next couple of weeks. White Winter Wheat production is also being hurt as both have been impacted by drought and heat this year. Yield reports have generally been good in Winter Wheat areas but there have been mixed results reported in some Great Plains states. Quality has been generally good. Europe has had too much rain and Russia and Kazakhstan have had too little. Kazakhstan has moved to limit Wheat exports for this year. World prices are expected to bottom soon and start to move higher, supporting Wheat futures markets in the US.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near normal. Northern areas should see mostly isolated showers. Temperatures will be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with no objectives. Support is at 694, 676, and 658 September, with resistance at 724, 748, and 767 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 681 September. Support is at 645, 638, and 619 September, with resistance at 686, 692, and 700 September. Trends in Minneapolis are up with no objectives. Support is at 897, 859, and 849 September, and resistance is at 948, 954, and 960 September.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed higher yesterday and mostly recovered the losses from Monday. It was a return to the fundamentals of Rice as the market expects smaller production this year due to reduced planted area and some weather extremes seen through the growing season to date. Growing conditions have been mixed at best with many areas getting too much rain. Rice areas have generally been wet. Louisiana and parts of Mississippi were saturated and are still reported to be wetter than desired for strong production and good quality. Warm temperatures are reported in Arkansas and Missouri and the crop progress is improving. However, it is still very wet in Arkansas. Texas has also been wet. Export demand was disappointing in the weekly sales report last week and Asian prices are trending lower.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1302, 1298, and 1295 September, with resistance at 1321, 1334, and 1340 September.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Jul 21
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 16.42 10.50 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 16.05 10.72 0.00
Brokens 10.42 —- —-

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn was higher as Crude Oil rallied and production concerns returned to the forefront. Northern and western Midwest areas and the northern Great Plains are turning hot and dry again. The growing conditions in the US are highly variable and not likely to produce trend line yields. Traders are reducing yield estimates from the USDA report of 179.5 bushels per acre to more like 174 bushels per acre and ideas are that more adverse weather could drive yields lower. No one is talking much about increasing yield estimates right now. Ideas are that Brazil Corn production will be less than 90 million tons so reduced production estimates are expected in coming reports. Oats were higher once again. Canadian Oats areas look to get some rain in the next couple of weeks, but US areas showed mixed conditions in the weekly USDA updates. Longer range forecasts released by NWS call for warmer and drier weather for many important US growing areas this Summer.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 584, 599, and 607 September.. Support is at 549, 546, and 540 September, and resistance is at 579, 588, and 598 September. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 463 and 483 September. Support is at 440, 424, and 403 September, and resistance is at 452, 458, and 464 September.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products moved higher on production concerns as the US weather forecast returned to the forefront. There are many areas that do not have good Soybeans in the US. Soybeans conditions in central production area are often too wet and have suffered. The weather forecasts changed to wetter and cooler and the crop needs dry conditions and some heat . Minnesota and northern Iowa and the Dakotas have been very hot and dry but Iowa got very beneficial rain last week. Forecasts call for warmer weather this week in the Midwest and northern Great Plains, and it should generally be dry. Warmer and drier outlooks are offered through at least the end of this month. The longer range forecasts from NWS call for warmer and drier than normal conditions for most Soybeans areas of the US.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1530 August. Support is at 1425, 1418, and 1408 August, and resistance is at 1480, 1492, and 1504 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 358.00, 351.00, and 347.00 August, and resistance is at 371.00, 375.00, and 379.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil mixed to are up with objectives of 7090 August. Support is at 6600, 6380, and 6180 August, with resistance at 6820, 6970, and 703

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were lower on weaker export data for the month to date from the private surveyors. Trends are still up on the daily charts. The private surveyors showed more demand for last month in reports issued last week and ideas are that the stronger demand can continue as India has cut its import taxes. Canola closed higher in recovery trading. Trends are still up and weather concerns continue strong. It remains generally dry and is turning warmer in the Prairies. The showers last week have a chance to be very beneficial as the Prairies crops are in big trouble now due to previous hot and dry weather. Demand has improved.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 872.00, 856.00, and 844.00 November, with resistance at 932.00, 949.00, and 955.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 4340 October. Support is at 4120, 4000, and 3960 October, with resistance at 41220, 4280, and 4340 October.

DJ Malaysia July 1-20 Palm Oil Exports Down 9.6%, SGS Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the July 1-20 period are estimated down 9.6% on month at 869,542 metric tons, cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. said Wednesday.
The following are the major items in the SGS estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
July 1-20 June 1-20
RBD Palm Olein 235,660 278,640
RBD Palm Oil 65,075 71,010
RBD Palm Stearin 61,880 74,200
Crude Palm Oil 184,628 214,715
Total* 869,542 962,184
SGS Malaysia is a division of the Switzerland-based Societe Generale de Surveillance Group.

DJ Malaysia July 1-20 Palm Oil Exports Fell 7.9% to 863,586 Tons, AmSpec Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the July 1-20 period are estimated down 7.9% on month at 863,586 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Wednesday.
The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
July 1-20 June 1-20
RBD Palm Olein 220,768 287,840
RBD Palm Oil 57,417 58,060
RBD Palm Stearin 79,230 68,000
Crude Palm Oil 197,428 227,705
Total* 863,586 937,135
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Isolated showers north and west, showers and storms south and east. Temperatures should average near normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June July May May May
July July July July
August July July July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jul 19
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 992.50 75.00 Nov 2021 up 20.40
Basis: Thunder Bay 938.10 40.00 Nov 2021 dn 19.40
Basis: Vancouver 968.10 70.00 Nov 2021 dn 19.40
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell
204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – July 21
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 1092.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Sept 1062.50 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1007.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 957.50 -17.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 1095.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Sept 1065.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1010.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 960.00 -17.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 1040.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 990.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 4,400.00 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 302.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.23)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jul 21
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 188,110 lots, or 10.72 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-21 5,698 5,739 5,637 5,656 5,727 5,683 -44 135,264 89,920
Nov-21 5,732 5,765 5,677 5,702 5,748 5,716 -32 25,213 77,328
Jan-22 5,774 5,790 5,696 5,718 5,777 5,739 -38 11,662 21,864
Mar-22 5,774 5,791 5,697 5,717 5,774 5,737 -37 9,546 15,806
May-22 5,846 5,847 5,750 5,769 5,848 5,796 -52 300 1,058
Jul-22 5,842 5,853 5,756 5,768 5,829 5,798 -31 6,125 1,561
Corn
Turnover: 705,450 lots, or 17.85 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-21 2,525 2,541 2,511 2,519 2,522 2,525 3 499,581 669,156
Nov-21 2,523 2,543 2,514 2,523 2,521 2,528 7 48,180 247,852
Jan-22 2,522 2,553 2,522 2,532 2,528 2,540 12 126,437 264,223
Mar-22 2,542 2,563 2,534 2,545 2,540 2,549 9 25,250 56,563
May-22 2,576 2,595 2,573 2,581 2,574 2,583 9 3,433 16,053
Jul-22 2,594 2,604 2,589 2,592 2,584 2,594 10 2,569 2,256
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,443,180 lots, or 53.06 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-21 3,719 3,754 3,650 3,670 3,710 3,685 -25 91 833
Sep-21 3,713 3,736 3,648 3,678 3,686 3,692 6 944,743 1,046,855
Nov-21 3,728 3,755 3,672 3,701 3,702 3,712 10 61,721 56,446
Dec-21 3,711 3,733 3,657 3,688 3,680 3,699 19 18,762 35,499
Jan-22 3,680 3,706 3,641 3,665 3,652 3,670 18 346,439 618,555
Mar-22 3,516 3,542 3,491 3,512 3,487 3,513 26 33,406 277,944
May-22 3,419 3,444 3,402 3,421 3,398 3,420 22 36,622 86,457
Jul-22 3,400 3,430 3,385 3,401 3,385 3,400 15 1,396 5,412
Palm Oil
Turnover: 945,508 lots, or 76.28 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-21 8,460 8,460 8,422 8,422 8,446 8,428 -18 6 13
Sep-21 8,208 8,242 7,994 8,084 8,084 8,132 48 810,324 397,621
Oct-21 7,976 8,052 7,830 7,918 7,884 7,970 86 11,254 37,859
Nov-21 7,920 7,942 7,710 7,796 7,792 7,826 34 5,305 40,400
Dec-21 7,760 7,832 7,614 7,686 7,696 7,744 48 9,057 57,082
Jan-22 7,710 7,736 7,528 7,588 7,598 7,650 52 95,764 114,585
Feb-22 7,632 7,678 7,482 7,546 7,542 7,612 70 4,631 8,815
Mar-22 7,620 7,648 7,452 7,510 7,514 7,582 68 4,695 4,165
Apr-22 7,536 7,578 7,380 7,452 7,438 7,510 72 3,597 3,206
May-22 7,448 7,484 7,306 7,366 7,358 7,382 24 859 4,821
Jun-22 7,358 7,370 7,356 7,370 7,298 7,360 62 7 21
Jul-22 7,356 7,356 7,226 7,226 7,224 7,256 32 9 4
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 855,352 lots, or 76.49 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-21 8,640 8,928 8,612 8,844 8,776 8,814 38 71 145
Sep-21 9,044 9,076 8,870 8,936 8,908 8,976 68 731,155 392,095
Nov-21 8,956 8,984 8,794 8,852 8,810 8,892 82 20,021 53,548
Dec-21 8,810 8,908 8,716 8,784 8,742 8,806 64 13,131 74,585
Jan-22 8,786 8,808 8,636 8,692 8,658 8,720 62 82,637 174,998
Mar-22 8,640 8,668 8,500 8,558 8,526 8,590 64 6,938 20,822
May-22 8,406 8,438 8,304 8,348 8,324 8,364 40 1,005 5,687
Jul-22 8,304 8,368 8,240 8,282 8,268 8,292 24 394 4,256
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322