Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Futures were lower on demand concerns as Covid has returned to the forefront. The Delta variant has spread fast and is hurting mostly unvaccinated people. The speed at which it has spread has scared traders and investors and caused a big selloff in the stock index futures in the US. The outlook for a weaker than expected economy and the potential for lockdowns or restricted movement hurt Cotton as it depends on people buying clothes and spending money. The return of Covid means that they might not have much left over for new clothes for at least the short term. Production ideas are being impacted in just about all areas due to the weather extremes. Demand was increased in the weekly export sales report and is expected to stay strong as the world economy rebounds from the Covid times.
Overnight News: The Delta will get isolated showers and near to below normal temperatures and Southeast will get scattered showers and near to below normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 86.59 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 107,517 bales, from 107,517 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for July delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 117 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 8630, 8590, and 8470 December, with resistance of 8900, 9000 and 9060 December.
Date 18-Jul 11-Jul 2020 Avg
Cotton Squaring 69 55 72 73
Cotton Setting Bolls 23 16 26 30
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 2 7 31 49 11
Cotton Last Week 1 8 35 44 12
Cotton Last Year 5 17 31 39 8
General Comments: FCOJ closed lower yesterday on world economic concerns caused by the return of Covid and as conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops. The Atlantic is turning more active although nothing has formed to threaten the state of Florida yet. A big storm could threaten trees and fruit. Brazil is reported to be in good condition, but dry. It has been cold but any damage is called minor. Cold weather is forecast for later this week and a little damage is possible although rated as not likely by forecasters. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production. Northern and western Mexico areas are getting some rains and conditions are rated mostly good. Some areas have had too much rain. Florida inventories are now 16.6% below a year ago.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 125.00, 122.00, and 121.00 September, with resistance at 132.00, 135.00, and 138.00 September.
General Comments: New York and London closed lower on demand concerns as the return of Covid threatened the world economic recovery. The US stock market was down sharply and some of this selling spilled over into commodities. London remains firm overall on some speculative and commercial buying tied to dry weather in Southeast Asia and on reports that Vietnamese producers were not selling or delivering. New York was higher along with the Brazilian Real as producers there were not willing to sell with the stronger Real. Temperatures are now warmer in Brazil after some very cold temperatures reported over the weekend. It is possible that some more Coffee was lost. There were some losses created by a hot and dry start to the growing season that impacted flowering and initial cherry development and a little Coffee was lost during the freeze event a couple of weeks ago. Asian Coffee areas are dry, especially in Southeast Asia, but increasing showers are coming this week and tree condition should be improved. Good conditions are reported in northern South America and good conditions reported in Central America. Colombia is having trouble exporting Coffee due to protests inside the country. Conditions are reported to be generally good in parts of Asia and parts of Africa.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 2.187 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 144.53 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE said that 0 contracts were posted for delivery today against NY July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 434 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 163.00 and 168.00 September. Support is at 155.00, 152.00, and 147.00 September, and resistance is at 162.00, 164.00 and 168.00 September. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1800 and 1880 September. Support is at 1710, 1690, and 1660 September, and resistance is at 1750, 1780, and 1790 September.
General Comments: New York and London were lower on demand concerns caused by the sharply weaker US stock markets and the drop in Crude Oil. Reports of damaged can in Brazil from the recent cold snap were heard and pictures of the damaged were tweeted. Brazil temperatures have moderated. Mills were also processing for more Ethanol and less for Sugar than expected and this trend should continue even with weaker world petroleum prices. London has been the leader to the downside on ample supplies of White Sugar available to the market and as demand for White Sugar is less. There is plenty of White Sugar available in India for the market and monsoon rains are promoting good conditions for the next crop. The Indians are selling with or without a subsidy from the government. Thailand is expecting improved production. Sugar demand is said to be weak. Ethanol demand is returning to the market as more world economies open up after the pandemic.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1670, 1640, and 1610 October, and resistance is at 1780, 1790, and 1820 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 447.00, 440.00, and 436.00 October, and resistance is at 452.00, 455.00, and 466.00 October.
General Comments: New York and London closed lower again yesterday on demand concerns. The return of Covid around the world hurt demand ideas as world economies could suffer again. The European grind data was released early last week and showed a strong recovery from the Covid times. Asian data was released on Friday and also showed increased demand, although not as much of an increase than showed for Europe. The daily charts show short term mixed trends in New York and in London and the fundamentals remain bearish despite the increased demand. Ports in West Africa are filled with Cocoa right now. The weather has had above average rains in West Africa and crop conditions are rated good.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.804 million bags. ICE said that 0 contracts were posted for July delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 271 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2200 September. Support is at 2240, 2210, and 2180 September, with resistance at 2310, 2350, and 2370 September. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1500 September. Support is at 1510, 1480, and 1450 September, with resistance at 1630, 1660, and 1670 September.