About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Jul 19
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT. NO
ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING JUL 15, 2021
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————–
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 07/15/2021 07/08/2021 07/16/2020 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 0 49 1,919 416
CORN 1,000,512 1,002,342 1,220,792 60,163,215 36,518,028
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 0 317
MIXED 0 48 0 48 0
OATS 0 0 200 100 600
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 63,192 73,916 124,654 6,619,961 4,266,513
SOYBEANS 143,934 201,129 454,719 57,799,815 38,321,410
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 240 0
WHEAT 490,626 427,819 512,305 2,817,946 3,586,880
Total 1,698,264 1,705,254 2,312,719 127,403,244 82,694,164
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

Crop Progress
Date 18-Jul 11-Jul 2020 Avg
Cotton Squaring 69 55 72 73
Cotton Setting Bolls 23 16 26 30
Corn Silking 56 26 55 52
Corn Dough 8 3 8 7
Soybeans Blooming 63 46 62 57
Soybreans Setting Pods 23 10 23 21
Sorghum Headed 33 29 33 34
Sorghum Coloring 17 15 18 19
Rice Headed 30 21 31 36
Peanuts Pegging 74 63 75 74
Oats Headed 98 94 96 96
Oats Harvested 18 11 19 18
Winter Wheat Harvested 73 59 73 74
Spring Wheat Headed 92 83 89 92
Barley Headed 90 78 86 90

Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 2 7 31 49 11
Cotton Last Week 1 8 35 44 12
Cotton Last Year 5 17 31 39 8

Corn This Week 2 7 26 50 156
Corn Last Week 2 6 27 51 14
Corn Last Year 2 6 23 52 17

Soybeans This Week 3 8 29 49 11
Soybeans Last Week 3 8 30 49 10
Soybeans Last Year 2 5 24 54 15

Spring Wheat This Week 29 34 26 19 1
Spring Wheat Last Week 21 34 29 15 1
Spring Wheat Last Year 2 5 25 55 13

Rice This Week 1 3 24 55 17
Rice Last Week 1 4 24 55 16
Rice Last Year 0 3 24 57 16

Oats This Week 9 21 35 29 6
Oats Last Week 11 21 33 30 5
Oats Last Year 2 8 29 52 9

Barley This Week 17 25 31 23 4
Barley Last Week 16 27 33 20 4
Barley Last Year 0 4 21 48 27

Sorghum This Week 1 5 26 57 11
Sorghum Last Week 1 4 25 57 13
Sorghum Last Year 3 9 37 43 8

Peanuts This Week 0 3 25 61 11
Peanuts Last Week 0 2 25 63 10
Peanuts Last Year 1 6 22 60 11

Pasture and Range This Week 21 19 27 25 8
Pasture and Range Last Week 19 20 27 26 8
Pasture and Range Last Year 12 22 31 30 5

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets and Minneapolis Spring Wheat were all higher again yesterday as the weather in the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains bad for production and on better demand ideas. The bad weather is coming back as hot and dry conditions are in the forecast for the northern Great Plains and the Canadian Prairies for the next couple of weeks. White Winter Wheat production is also being hurt as both have been impacted by drought and heat this year. Yield reports have generally been good in Winter Wheat areas but there have been mixed results reported in some Great Plains states. Quality has been generally good. Europe has had too much rain and Russia and Kazakhstan have had too little. Kazakhstan has moved to limit Wheat exports for this year. World prices are expected to bottom soon and start to move higher, supporting Wheat futures markets in the US.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near normal. Northern areas should see mostly isolated showers. Temperatures will be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with no objectives. Support is at 694, 676, and 658 September, with resistance at 709, 717, and 748 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 681 September. Support is at 645, 638, and 619 September, with resistance at 669, 670, and 686 September. Trends in Minneapolis are up with no objectives. Support is at 897, 859, and 849 September, and resistance is at 948, 954, and 960 September.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed lower yesterday in speculators sold due to the return of Covid and the potential for even weaker demand. Futures were higher for the week. Crude Oil and the stock market were sharply lower as well. Growing conditions have been mixed at best with many areas getting too much rain. Rice areas have generally been wet. Louisiana and parts of Mississippi were saturated and are still reported to be wetter than desired for strong production and good quality. Warm temperatures are reported in Arkansas and Missouri and the crop progress is improving. However, it is still very wet in Arkansas. Texas has also been wet. Export demand was disappointing in the weekly sales report last week and Asian prices are trending lower.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1298, 1295, and 1289 September, with resistance at 1321, 1334, and 1340 September.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn was unchanged to slightly higher in two sided trading. Some traders noted that Corn in Illinois and along Interstate 80 appear to be in good condition. However, northern and western areas are turning hot and dry again. The stock market and Crude Oil sold off in a big way as Covid fears resurfaced as the Delta variant continues to spread. The weaker Crude Oil futures market kept ethanol demand ideas down. The weekly chart trends might be down now even though the growing conditions in the US are highly variable and not likely to produce trend line yields. The daily charts imply a recovery trade is coming before any new moves significantly lower. Traders are reducing yield estimates from the USDA report of 179.5 bushels per acre to more like 174 bushels per acre and ideas are that more adverse weather could drive yields lower. No one is talking much about increasing yield estimates right now. Ideas are that Brazil Corn production will be less than 90 million tons so reduced production estimates are expected in coming reports. Oats were higher once again. Canadian Oats areas look to get some rain in the next couple of weeks, but US areas showed mixed conditions in the weekly USDA updates. Longer range forecasts released by NWS call for warmer and drier weather for many important US growing areas this Summer.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 546, 540, and 528 September, and resistance is at 571, 579, and 588 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 424, 403, and 396 September, and resistance is at 444, 452, and 458 September.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products moved lower on Covid and demand fears. Ideas are that Covid has returned and could hurt world economies again causing weaker demand around the world. There are many areas that do not have good Soybeans in the US. Soybeans conditions in central production area are often too wet and have suffered. The weather forecasts changed to wetter and cooler and the crop needs dry conditions and some heat . Minnesota and northern Iowa and the Dakotas have been very hot and dry but Iowa got very beneficial rain last week. Forecasts call for warmer weather this week in the Midwest and northern Great Plains, and it should generally be dry. Warmer and drier outlooks are offered through at least the end of this month. The longer range forecasts from NWS call for warmer and drier than normal conditions for most Soybeans areas of the US.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1530 August. Support is at 1425, 1418, and 1408 August, and resistance is at 1480, 1492, and 1504 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 358.00, 351.00, and 347.00 August, and resistance is at 371.00, 375.00, and 379.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil mixed to are up with objectives of 7090 August. Support is at 6600, 6380, and 6180 August, with resistance at 6970, 7030, and 7100 August.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were closed for a holiday today. Trends are up on the daily charts. The private surveyors showed more demand for last month in reports issued last week and ideas are that the stronger demand can continue as India has cut its import taxes. Canola closed lower on world economic fears and along with the weakness in Chicago Soybeans. Crude Oil and the stock market were sharply lower and this affected all oilseeds as bio fuels production could suffer. Trends are still up and weather concerns continue strong. It remains generally dry and is turning warmer in the Prairies. The showers last week have a chance to be very beneficial as the Prairies crops are in big trouble now due to previous hot and dry weather. Demand has improved a little bit with the recently weaker prices.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 961.00 November. Support is at 872.00, 856.00, and 844.00 November, with resistance at 949.00, 955.00, and 961.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 4340 October. Support is at 4000, 3930, and 3880 October, with resistance at 4160, 4220, and 4280 October.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Isolated showers north and west, showers and storms south and east. Temperatures should average near normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June July May May May
July July July July
August July July July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jul 19
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 992.50 75.00 Nov 2021 up 20.40
Basis: Thunder Bay 938.10 40.00 Nov 2021 dn 19.40
Basis: Vancouver 968.10 70.00 Nov 2021 dn 19.40
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell
204-782-5944)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jul 20
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 316,827 lots, or 18.18 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-21 5,755 5,860 5,661 5,698 5,945 5,727 -218 224,923 86,287
Nov-21 5,770 5,839 5,688 5,732 5,961 5,748 -213 40,323 72,426
Jan-22 5,849 5,888 5,718 5,755 5,972 5,777 -195 22,225 21,282
Mar-22 5,917 5,917 5,717 5,758 5,985 5,774 -211 19,911 15,468
May-22 5,870 5,917 5,780 5,812 6,009 5,848 -161 866 1,126
Jul-22 5,841 5,903 5,784 5,819 6,009 5,829 -180 8,579 1,621
Corn
Turnover: 697,375 lots, or 17.61 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-21 2,530 2,537 2,509 2,517 2,547 2,522 -25 516,727 654,959
Nov-21 2,529 2,532 2,510 2,519 2,548 2,521 -27 44,235 245,055
Jan-22 2,525 2,539 2,517 2,529 2,551 2,528 -23 94,648 251,815
Mar-22 2,545 2,551 2,529 2,542 2,563 2,540 -23 34,787 55,705
May-22 2,585 2,589 2,566 2,577 2,599 2,574 -25 5,107 16,170
Jul-22 2,592 2,599 2,575 2,592 2,615 2,584 -31 1,871 2,119
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,340,255 lots, or 49.17 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-21 3,720 3,749 3,675 3,735 3,712 3,710 -2 140 786
Sep-21 3,700 3,711 3,642 3,704 3,722 3,686 -36 874,396 1,099,814
Nov-21 3,734 3,734 3,662 3,723 3,742 3,702 -40 64,853 54,390
Dec-21 3,696 3,705 3,644 3,704 3,717 3,680 -37 22,625 36,066
Jan-22 3,668 3,679 3,612 3,675 3,687 3,652 -35 319,390 596,502
Mar-22 3,506 3,512 3,454 3,510 3,517 3,487 -30 33,874 278,448
May-22 3,411 3,415 3,365 3,414 3,423 3,398 -25 23,087 87,641
Jul-22 3,390 3,400 3,353 3,399 3,410 3,385 -25 1,890 5,399
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,005,776 lots, or 80.66 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-21 8,202 8,850 8,202 8,750 8,370 8,446 76 27 18
Sep-21 8,052 8,256 7,964 8,208 8,190 8,084 -106 860,331 423,194
Oct-21 7,898 8,062 7,790 8,024 8,012 7,884 -128 17,156 37,832
Nov-21 7,822 7,952 7,692 7,916 7,920 7,792 -128 4,319 39,049
Dec-21 7,652 7,854 7,592 7,806 7,820 7,696 -124 10,044 57,713
Jan-22 7,600 7,748 7,498 7,714 7,728 7,598 -130 99,869 116,154
Feb-22 7,540 7,690 7,448 7,666 7,678 7,542 -136 4,010 8,514
Mar-22 7,490 7,662 7,408 7,662 7,648 7,514 -134 5,088 4,065
Apr-22 7,426 7,584 7,216 7,546 7,592 7,438 -154 3,729 3,240
May-22 7,380 7,476 7,262 7,454 7,462 7,358 -104 1,197 4,719
Jun-22 7,180 7,362 7,180 7,354 7,382 7,298 -84 3 21
Jul-22 7,224 7,228 7,224 7,228 7,350 7,224 -126 3 7
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,008,391 lots, or 89.51 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-21 8,872 8,872 8,596 8,600 9,056 8,776 -280 32 144
Sep-21 8,888 9,064 8,798 9,044 9,028 8,908 -120 860,908 403,904
Nov-21 8,802 8,974 8,716 8,960 8,944 8,810 -134 26,019 52,241
Dec-21 8,692 8,892 8,638 8,848 8,866 8,742 -124 11,986 75,602
Jan-22 8,646 8,794 8,552 8,786 8,794 8,658 -136 101,150 171,132
Mar-22 8,530 8,656 8,420 8,640 8,654 8,526 -128 7,130 20,821
May-22 8,358 8,424 8,210 8,424 8,430 8,324 -106 906 5,674
Jul-22 8,186 8,336 8,144 8,318 8,356 8,268 -88 260 4,210
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322