About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Futures were higher again Friday and were higher for the week as speculators bought on weather concerns and on ideas of increasing demand. The weekly export sales report showed only moderate demand but the monthly WASDE report helped fuel the charge higher last week. Production was increased due to a sharp increase in planted and harvested area, but yields were lower. Exports were increased as domestic demand remained unchanged. Ending stocks were higher but still show that a tight situation is developing. Production ideas are being impacted in just about all areas due to the weather extremes. Demand was increased in the weekly export sales report and is expected to stay strong as the world economy rebounds from the Covid times.
Overnight News: The Delta will get scattered showers and near normal temperatures and Southeast will get scattered showers and near normal temperatures. Texas will have isolated showers and near to below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 86.59 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 107,517 bales, from 110,746 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for July delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 117 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 9050 December. Support is at 8850, 8760, and 8630 December, with resistance of 9000, 9060 and 9120 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 13, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 275,142
: Positions :
: 65,391 9,659 50,764 46,308 197,517 94,906 9,542 257,370 267,482: 17,772 7,660
: Changes from: July 6, 2021 (Change in open interest: 6,287) :
: 5,596 1,399 -1,906 -178 6,351 1,451 -114 4,962 5,731: 1,325 556
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 23.8 3.5 18.5 16.8 71.8 34.5 3.5 93.5 97.2: 6.5 2.8
: Total Traders: 286 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 126 36 83 54 57 46 18 258 169:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed lower on Friday but higher for the week even as there are no new tropical systems forming in the Atlantic at this time and conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops. USDA slightly increased its production estimate for the second month in its production reports released on Monday. A big storm could threaten trees and fruit. Brazil is reported to be in good condition, but dry. It has been cold but any damage is called minor. Cold weather is forecast for later this week and a little damage is possible although rated as not likely by forecasters. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production. Northern and western Mexico areas are getting some rains and conditions are rated mostly good. Some areas have had too much rain. Florida inventories are now 16.7% below a year ago.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 125.00, 122.00, and 121.00 September, with resistance at 132.00, 135.00, and 138.00 September.

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement and Pack – Jul 19
In mm ps, (million pounds solid). Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)
WEEK ENDING:
7/10/2021 Corresponding
Current Week Last
Week Season
7/10/2021 7/4/2020 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 263.89 316.98 -16.7%
Retail/Institutional 5.18 6.07 -14.6%
Total 269.07 323.05 -16.7%
Pack
Bulk 0.36 0.43 -14.6%
Retail/Institutional 0.91 0.36 154.2%
Total Pack 1.27 0.78 62.5%
Reprocessed -1.27 -0.78 62.5%
Pack from Fruit 0.00 0.00 NC
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -0.08 -0.06 34.7%
Imports – Foreign 0.65 1.02 -36.4%
Domestic Receipts 0.78 0.06 1139.6%
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 0.00 0.00 NC
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 0.00 0.00 NC
Reprocessed FCTJ 0.27 0.02 990.6%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 264.60 317.68 -16.7%
Retail/Institutional 6.09 6.43 -5.2%
Total 270.69 324.10 -16.5%
MOVEMENT
Bulk
Domestic 3.66 4.52 -19.0%
Exports 0.20 0.06 214.0%
Total (Bulk) 3.87 4.58 -15.7%
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 1.11 0.96 15.7%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 1.11 0.96 15.7%
Total Movement 4.97 5.54 -10.2%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 260.73 313.09 -16.7%
Retail/Institutional 4.99 5.47 -8.8%
Ending Inventory 265.72 318.56 -16.6%
Total Same
Total Season Period Last
To Date Season
10-Jul-21 4-Jul-20 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 254.09 311.95 -18.5%
Retail/Institutional 5.56 5.82 -4.5%
Total 259.65 317.77 -18.3%
Pack
Bulk 72.29 135.98 -46.8%
Retail/Institutional 41.73 41.91 -0.4%
Total Pack 114.02 177.89 -35.9%
Reprocessed -83.79 -95.88 -12.6%
Pack from Fruit 30.23 82.01 -63.1%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -0.84 -2.25 -62.6%
Imports – Foreign 170.33 123.29 38.2%
Domestic Receipts 12.58 12.55 0.2%
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 1.28 0.46 176.5%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 6.58 18.28 -64.0%
Reprocessed FCTJ 2.24 1.98 13.0%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 434.76 506.36 -14.1%
Retail/Institutional 47.29 47.73 -0.9%
Total 482.04 554.10 -13.0%
MOVEMENT
Bulk 157.18 188.31 -16.5%
Domestic 16.85 10.92 54.3%
Exports 174.02 199.23 -12.7%
Total (Bulk)
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 42.30 42.26 0.1%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 42.30 42.26 0.1%
Total Movement 216.32 241.50 -10.4%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 260.73 313.09 -16.7%
Retail/Institutional 4.99 5.47 -8.8%
Ending Inventory 265.72 318.56 -16.6%

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 13, 2021
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 13,058 :
: Positions :
: 3,394 9,175 1,716 89 11 2,265 637 116 1,776 713 1,290 :
: Changes from: July 6, 2021 :
: -81 405 -39 12 0 114 -169 1 15 -99 -92 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 26.0 70.3 13.1 0.7 0.1 17.3 4.9 0.9 13.6 5.5 9.9 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 70 :
: 15 13 5 . . 11 7 . 20 6 6 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: New York was higher and London closed higher on Friday and for the week on weather and demand concerns. London remains firm overall on some speculative and commercial buying tied to dry weather in Southeast Asia and on reports that Vietnamese producers were not selling or delivering. New York was higher along with the Brazilian Real as producers there were not willing to sell with the stronger Real. Temperatures are now warmer in Brazil and there are no forecasts for damaging cold for a few days. It could get vey cold after that although maybe not cold enough to damage trees. There were some losses created by a hot and dry start to the growing season that impacted flowering and initial cherry development and a little Coffee was lost during the freeze event a couple of weeks ago. Asian Coffee areas are dry, especially in Southeast Asia, but increasing showers are coming this week and tree condition should be improved. Good conditions are reported in northern South America and good conditions reported in Central America. Colombia is having trouble exporting Coffee due to protests inside the country. Conditions are reported to be generally good in parts of Asia and parts of Africa.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 2.185 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 147.60 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE said that 0 contracts were posted for delivery today against NY July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 434 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 163.00 and 168.00 September. Support is at 158.00, 155.00, and 152.00 September, and resistance is at 162.00, 164.00 and 168.00 September. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1800 and 1880 September. Support is at 1740, 1710, and 1690 September, and resistance is at 1790, 1820, and 1850 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 13, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 336,516
: Positions :
: 46,434 25,595 86,326 100,151 199,324 90,976 18,077 323,888 329,322: 12,628 7,194
: Changes from: July 6, 2021 (Change in open interest: -11,516) :
: -4,669 -2,143 -11,567 4,249 1,376 280 1,227 -11,706 -11,106: 191 -410
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.8 7.6 25.7 29.8 59.2 27.0 5.4 96.2 97.9: 3.8 2.1
: Total Traders: 439 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 161 67 128 121 124 45 22 387 299:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 07/13/2021
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
141,103 43,510 86,110 9,586 8,537 3,540
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 30.8% 61.0% 6.8% 6.1% 2.5%
Number of Traders in Each Category
157 40 39 11 7 10
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
34,911 2,238 11,014 8,525 2,568 24,119
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
24.7% 1.6% 7.8% 6.0% 1.8% 17.1%
Number of Traders in Each Category
48 7 18 20 10 23
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,898 2,977
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.2% 2.1%

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London were higher Friday as the medium term trends are up again. Reports of damaged can in Brazil from the recent cold snap were heard and pictures of the damaged were tweeted. Brazil temperatures have moderated and the weather there is considered mostly good for production. Warmer temperatures are reported now but it is forecast to turn cold again this week. It might not get cold enough to damage the cane but the market is worried and has added weather premium to the price. Mills were also processing for more Ethanol and less for Sugar than expected and this trend should continue with higher world petroleum prices. London has been the leader to the downside on ample supplies of White Sugar available to the market and as demand for White Sugar is less. There is plenty of White Sugar available in India for the market and monsoon rains are promoting good conditions for the next crop. The Indians are selling with or without a subsidy from the government. Thailand is expecting improved production. Sugar demand is said to be weak. Ethanol demand is returning to the market as more world economies open up after the pandemic.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 1770 and 1820 October. Support is at 1720, 1670, and 1640 October, and resistance is at 1790, 1820, and 1850 October. Trends in London are up with objectives of 476.00 October. Support is at 452.00, 446.00, and 440.00 October, and resistance is at 470.00, 477.00, and 484.00 October.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 13, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,077,341
: Positions :
: 191,838 41,313 212,033 302,119 712,178 288,274 71,769 994,263 1,037,292: 83,078 40,049
: Changes from: July 6, 2021 (Change in open interest: -16,601) :
: -11,080 6,250 -3,429 12,455 -23,205 -7,324 -985 -9,379 -21,370: -7,222 4,769
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 17.8 3.8 19.7 28.0 66.1 26.8 6.7 92.3 96.3: 7.7 3.7
: Total Traders: 251 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 89 25 69 80 78 40 19 233 170:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 07/13/2021
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
76,384 36,415 59,289 8,685 2,637 3,342
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 47.7% 77.6% 11.4% 3.5% 4.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
102 33 35 10 6 8
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
15,757 2,275 4,006 1,401 317 1,511
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
20.6% 3.0% 5.2% 1.8% 0.4% 2.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
20 8 9 5 6 10
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,267 3,007
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
6.9% 3.9%

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed lower on Friday but higher for the week on indications of stronger demand. The European grind data was released early last week and showed a strong recovery from the Covid times. Asian data was released on Friday and also showed increased demand, although not as much of an increase than showed for Europe. The daily charts show short term mixed trends in New York and in London and the fundamentals remain bearish despite the increased demand. Ports in West Africa are filled with Cocoa right now. The weather has had above average rains in West Africa and crop conditions are rated good.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.814 million bags. ICE said that 0 contracts were posted for July delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 271 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2320, 2270, and 2240 September, with resistance at 2390, 2440, and 2460 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1570, 1540, and 1510 September, with resistance at 1630, 1660, and 1670 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 13, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 275,842
: Positions :
: 32,568 48,174 65,312 114,967 127,537 50,794 25,496 263,642 266,519: 12,200 9,323
: Changes from: July 6, 2021 (Change in open interest: 6,856) :
: 3,518 -2,756 1,167 2,592 8,992 -93 615 7,184 8,019: -328 -1,163
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.8 17.5 23.7 41.7 46.2 18.4 9.2 95.6 96.6: 4.4 3.4
: Total Traders: 231 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 72 62 68 51 37 33 17 197 150:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 07/13/2021
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
272,135 187,497 176,176 27,087 19,778 11,481
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 68.9% 64.7% 10.0% 7.3% 4.2%
Number of Traders in Each Category
130 48 39 12 6 11
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
7,904 29,600 9,666 4,573 986 21,920
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
2.9% 10.9% 3.6% 1.7% 0.4% 8.1%
Number of Traders in Each Category
15 21 7 12 8 18
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
2,007 2,528
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
0.7% 0.9%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322