About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets and Minneapolis Spring Wheat were all higher again as the weather in the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains bad for production and on better demand ideas. The export sales report was relatively strong and helped push prices in all three markets higher. USDA also reported a sale of 134,000 tons of SRW to China on Friday. USDA showed sharply lower Spring Wheat production and much lower ending stocks estimates for All Wheat in its Monday reports. The bad weather is coming back as hot and dry conditions are in the forecast for the northern Great Plains and the Canadian Prairies for the next couple of weeks. White Winter Wheat production is also being hurt as both have been impacted by drought and heat this year. Yield reports have generally been good in Winter Wheat areas but there have been mixed results reported in some Great Plains states. Quality has been generally good. World prices are expected to bottom soon and start to move higher, supporting Wheat futures markets in the US.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal. Northern areas should see mostly isolated showers. Temperatures will be near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with no objectives. Support is at 673, 651, and 648 September, with resistance at 700, 708, and 717 September. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 681 September. Support is at 638, 619, and 613 September, with resistance at 662, 669, and 670 September. Trends in Minneapolis are up with no objectives. Support is at 897, 859, and 849 September, and resistance is at 930, 936, and 942 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 13, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 416,511
: Positions :
: 34,754 89,913 108,966 68,329 145,460 177,718 30,813 389,766 375,151: 26,745 41,360
: Changes from: July 6, 2021 (Change in open interest: 5,882) :
: 2,872 11,306 -880 6,660 -3,949 -4,431 -1,722 4,221 4,756: 1,660 1,125
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.3 21.6 26.2 16.4 34.9 42.7 7.4 93.6 90.1: 6.4 9.9
: Total Traders: 324 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 71 77 96 75 106 48 26 248 260:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 13, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 210,612
: Positions :
: 40,904 35,955 36,505 39,644 107,141 76,465 11,800 193,519 191,400: 17,093 19,212
: Changes from: July 6, 2021 (Change in open interest: 9,821) :
: 2,987 2,016 3,005 2,374 4,212 1,746 1,379 10,111 10,612: -291 -791
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 19.4 17.1 17.3 18.8 50.9 36.3 5.6 91.9 90.9: 8.1 9.1
: Total Traders: 229 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 46 40 48 69 80 36 16 175 164:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 13, 2021
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 84,473 :
: Positions :
: 31,425 56,132 4,008 1,200 1,819 9,955 973 4,760 3,897 1,923 5,576 :
: Changes from: July 6, 2021 :
: 178 -94 -78 -46 374 -243 -399 2,555 402 -131 377 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 37.2 66.4 4.7 1.4 2.2 11.8 1.2 5.6 4.6 2.3 6.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 117 :
: 48 47 5 . 4 17 . 4 18 6 14 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 13, 2021
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
BLACK SEA WHEAT FINANCIAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE 50 Metric Tons :
CFTC Code #00160F Open Interest is 22,044 :
: Positions :
: 6,564 18,867 2,571 300 600 9,327 500 0 1,244 688 727 :
: Changes from: July 6, 2021 :
: 194 -600 800 -100 -300 -1,361 0 0 -241 223 -457 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 29.8 85.6 11.7 1.4 2.7 42.3 2.3 0.0 5.6 3.1 3.3 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 27 :
: 8 14 . . . . . 0 . . . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE: Rice closed a little higher again Friday in limited volume trading on what appeared to be speculative buying. Futures were higher for the week. Growing conditions have been mixed at best with many areas getting too much rain. Rice areas have generally been wet. Louisiana and parts of Mississippi were saturated and are still reported to be wetter than desired for strong production and good quality. Warm temperatures are reported in Arkansas and Missouri and the crop progress is improving. However, it is still very wet in Arkansas. Texas has also been wet. Export demand was disappointing in the weekly sales report last week and Asian prices are trending lower.
General Comments: Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1344 and 1372 September. Support is at 1298, 1295, and 1289 September, with resistance at 1340, 1357, and 1371 September.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 13, 2021
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 7,791 :
: Positions :
: 4,790 3,947 141 100 0 512 1,320 27 558 815 472 :
: Changes from: July 6, 2021 :
: 178 -196 -1 0 0 -69 265 9 -15 -38 -50 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 61.5 50.7 1.8 1.3 0.0 6.6 16.9 0.3 7.2 10.5 6.1 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 44 :
: 11 11 . . 0 5 6 . 9 4 6 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn was lower Friday and for the week and the weekly charts show a reversal pattern. The weekly chart trends might be down now even though the growing conditions in the US are highly variable and not likely to produce trend line yields. The daily charts imply a recovery trade is coming before any new moves significantly lower.. Traders are reducing yield estimates from the USDA report of 179.5 bushels per acre to more like 174 bushels per acre and ideas are that more adverse weather could drive yields lower. No one is talking much about increasing yield estimates right now. The weather has improved in the last couple of weeks as many dry areas got a little rain. But, forecast outlooks call for warmer and drier conditions for the rest of the month in western areas so the benefits of the rains might be limited. Ideas are that Brazil Corn production will be less than 90 million tons so reduced production estimates are expected in coming reports. Oats were higher once again. Canadian Oats areas look to get some rain in the next couple of weeks, but US areas showed mixed conditions in the weekly USDA updates. Longer range forecasts released by NWS call for warmer and drier weather for many important US growing areas this Summer.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 607 and 656 September. Support is at 558, 546, and 540 September, and resistance is at 579, 588, and 598 September. Trends in Oats are up with no objectives. Support is at 424, 403, and 396 September, and resistance is at 444, 452, and 458 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 13, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 2,055,274
: Positions :
: 218,050 72,457 532,546 568,919 1,095,511 550,858 118,872 1,870,373 1,819,387: 184,901 235,888
: Changes from: July 6, 2021 (Change in open interest: -40,372) :
: -19,139 -5,617 399 -5,111 -25,645 -12,166 -3,594 -36,017 -34,456: -4,354 -5,915
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.6 3.5 25.9 27.7 53.3 26.8 5.8 91.0 88.5: 9.0 11.5
: Total Traders: 864 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 179 113 199 392 444 55 32 722 706:
——————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products moved higher once again on Friday and closed higher for the week. There are many areas that do not have good Soybeans in the US. Soybeans conditions in central production area are often too wet and have suffered. The weather forecasts changed to wetter and cooler and the crop needs dry conditions and some heat . Minnesota and northern Iowa and the Dakotas have been very hot and dry but Iowa got very beneficial rain yesterday. Forecasts call for cooler weather this week in the Midwest and northern Great Plains, and it should generally be wet. Next week should be warmer and drier, and warmer and drier outlooks are offered through at least the end of this month. The longer range forecasts from NWS call for warmer and drier than normal conditions for most Soybeans areas of the US.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1530 August. Support is at 1425, 1418, and 1408 August, and resistance is at 1473, 1480, and 1492 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 375.00, 388.00, and 390.00 August. Support is at 358.00, 351.00, and 347.00 August, and resistance is at 371.00, 375.00, and 379.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 7090 August. Support is at 6600, 6380, and 6180 August, with resistance at 7030, 7100, and 710 August.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 13, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 937,499
: Positions :
: 83,209 59,076 271,072 287,910 468,838 231,928 62,379 874,119 861,365: 63,379 76,133
: Changes from: July 6, 2021 (Change in open interest: -7,792) :
: -3,247 15 5,883 -9,665 -12,216 -172 1,326 -7,201 -4,993: -591 -2,800
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.9 6.3 28.9 30.7 50.0 24.7 6.7 93.2 91.9: 6.8 8.1
: Total Traders: 617 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 172 96 176 229 262 53 21 525 497:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 13, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 575,087
: Positions :
: 57,184 35,418 153,086 171,688 323,719 157,031 36,043 538,990 548,266: 36,097 26,821
: Changes from: July 6, 2021 (Change in open interest: -370) :
: 1,393 -1,064 -1,586 -7,301 -213 5,049 2,339 -2,445 -524: 2,075 154
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.9 6.2 26.6 29.9 56.3 27.3 6.3 93.7 95.3: 6.3 4.7
: Total Traders: 295 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 72 47 77 91 102 40 20 252 212:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 13, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 417,092
: Positions :
: 33,459 32,187 70,168 141,091 271,773 119,272 14,803 363,989 388,931: 53,103 28,161
: Changes from: July 6, 2021 (Change in open interest: -9,824) :
: -126 3,834 -12,858 4,916 195 -1,832 -1,136 -9,900 -9,966: 75 141
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.0 7.7 16.8 33.8 65.2 28.6 3.5 87.3 93.2: 12.7 6.8
: Total Traders: 253 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 41 46 58 102 93 38 16 215 185:
——————————————————————————————————————-

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were higher on demand ideas and ideas of shrinking supplies. Trends are up on the daily charts. The private surveyors showed more demand for last month in reports issued last week and ideas are that the stronger demand can continue as India has cut its import taxes. Canola closed higher in a weather market. Trends are still up and weather concerns continue strong. It remains generally dry and is turning warmer in the Prairies. The showers last week have a chance to be very beneficial as the Prairies crops are in big trouble now due to previous hot and dry weather. Demand has improved a little bit with the recently weaker prices.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 961.00 November. Support is at 872.00, 856.00, and 844.00 November, with resistance at 949.00, 955.00, and 961.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 4340 October. Support is at 4000, 3930, and 3880 October, with resistance at 4160, 4220, and 4280 October.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 13, 2021
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 234,053 :
: Positions :
: 162,703 177,605 8,634 5,865 4,073 26,504 12,519 8,124 5,146 8,753 15,884 :
: Changes from: July 6, 2021 :
: 2,304 4,248 397 -982 179 -2,921 -246 1,124 422 -2,318 1,706 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 69.5 75.9 3.7 2.5 1.7 11.3 5.3 3.5 2.2 3.7 6.8 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 314 :
: 61 72 4 6 4 47 12 10 65 77 36 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Midwest Weather Forecast: Isolated showers north and west, showers and storms south and east. Temperatures should average near normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June July May May May
July July July July
August July July July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jul 16
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 972.10 60.00 Nov. 2021 up 18.60
Basis: Thunder Bay 957.50 40.00 Nov. 2021 up 5.40
Basis: Vancouver 987.50 70.00 Nov. 2021 up 5.40
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – July 19
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 1092.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Sep 1082.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1015.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 975.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 1095.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Sep 1085.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1017.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 977.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 1050.00 – Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 1000.00 – Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 4,370.00 – Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 302.00 – Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.222)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jul 19
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 264,758 lots, or 15.76 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-21 5,958 6,007 5,700 5,723 5,858 5,945 87 186,875 82,727
Nov-21 5,887 6,011 5,777 5,786 5,874 5,961 87 36,989 68,713
Jan-22 5,990 6,020 5,751 5,761 5,910 5,972 62 14,274 18,888
Mar-22 5,951 6,027 5,840 5,840 5,892 5,985 93 19,050 15,278
May-22 5,989 6,050 5,897 5,897 5,936 6,009 73 742 1,255
Jul-22 6,005 6,058 5,938 5,938 5,934 6,009 75 6,828 1,447
Corn
Turnover: 1,001,540 lots, or 2.55 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-21 2,576 2,588 2,527 2,528 2,589 2,547 -42 729,205 634,636
Nov-21 2,567 2,581 2,524 2,526 2,577 2,548 -29 64,959 245,183
Jan-22 2,576 2,588 2,530 2,531 2,584 2,551 -33 149,397 246,484
Mar-22 2,581 2,594 2,536 2,540 2,590 2,563 -27 36,683 54,490
May-22 2,618 2,629 2,579 2,582 2,621 2,599 -22 6,080 15,997
Jul-22 2,634 2,642 2,591 2,594 2,636 2,615 -21 15,216 2,000
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,630,496 lots, or 6.04 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-21 3,664 3,762 3,664 3,707 3,664 3,712 48 35 842
Sep-21 3,678 3,767 3,676 3,709 3,656 3,722 66 1,031,235 1,110,889
Nov-21 3,694 3,784 3,694 3,729 3,676 3,742 66 76,719 55,303
Dec-21 3,680 3,762 3,678 3,711 3,656 3,717 61 32,464 36,043
Jan-22 3,645 3,729 3,644 3,677 3,623 3,687 64 409,446 596,348
Mar-22 3,480 3,555 3,480 3,511 3,460 3,517 57 46,046 282,749
May-22 3,389 3,455 3,385 3,420 3,369 3,423 54 31,880 85,605
Jul-22 3,370 3,440 3,370 3,400 3,360 3,410 50 2,671 5,068
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,026,955 lots, or 83.39 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-21 8,370 8,370 8,370 8,370 8,370 8,370 0 5 31
Sep-21 8,110 8,298 8,094 8,118 8,040 8,190 150 856,878 419,442
Oct-21 7,950 8,088 7,940 7,958 7,890 8,012 122 19,550 38,128
Nov-21 7,858 7,984 7,854 7,854 7,800 7,920 120 7,804 39,057
Dec-21 7,764 7,894 7,750 7,770 7,718 7,820 102 10,817 57,761
Jan-22 7,700 7,800 7,658 7,662 7,648 7,728 80 115,353 104,660
Feb-22 7,660 7,742 7,616 7,620 7,594 7,678 84 5,785 8,698
Mar-22 7,650 7,714 7,568 7,570 7,574 7,648 74 4,675 4,143
Apr-22 7,602 7,646 7,498 7,500 7,516 7,592 76 4,190 3,221
May-22 7,456 7,538 7,398 7,408 7,432 7,462 30 1,886 4,725
Jun-22 7,386 7,388 7,376 7,376 7,342 7,382 40 6 21
Jul-22 7,352 7,352 7,350 7,350 7,200 7,350 150 6 6
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 974,731 lots, or 87.62 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-21 9,018 9,160 9,018 9,018 9,034 9,056 22 5 146
Sep-21 8,956 9,128 8,950 8,950 8,926 9,028 102 800,570 402,650
Nov-21 8,862 9,024 8,862 8,876 8,854 8,944 90 27,151 52,487
Dec-21 8,786 8,934 8,786 8,810 8,782 8,866 84 14,256 75,858
Jan-22 8,748 8,866 8,728 8,728 8,716 8,794 78 119,798 173,611
Mar-22 8,578 8,732 8,578 8,580 8,578 8,654 76 6,674 20,691
May-22 8,382 8,504 8,370 8,406 8,350 8,430 80 1,255 5,686
Jul-22 8,312 8,418 8,288 8,300 8,280 8,356 76 5,022 4,189
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322