Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Futures were higher again yesterday as speculators bought on weather concerns and on ideas of increasing demand. The weekly export sales report showed only moderate demand but the monthly WASDE report helped fuel the charge higher this week. Production was increased due to a sharp increase in planted and harvested area, but yields were lower. Exports were increased as domestic demand remained unchanged. Ending stocks were higher but still show that a tight situation is developing. Production ideas are being impacted in just about all areas due to the weather extremes. Demand was increased in the weekly export sales report and is expected to stay strong as the world economy rebounds from the Covid times.
Overnight News: The Delta will get scattered showers and near normal temperatures and Southeast will get scattered showers and near normal temperatures. Texas will have isolated showers and near to below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 85.73 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 110,746 bales, from 110,746 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for July delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 117 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 9050 December. Support is at 8850, 8760, and 8630 December, with resistance of 9000, 9060 and 9120 December.
DJ On-Call Cotton – Jul 15
As of Jul 9. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or
purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts
of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.
*-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from
Call Previous Change Call Previous Change
Jul 21 0 0 0 0 0 0
Oct 21 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 21 53,831 52,812 1,019 23,681 23,696 -15
Mar 22 25,734 24,464 1,270 5,908 5,803 105
May 22 11,441 11,028 413 1,078 1,083 -5
Jul 22 28,232 27,260 972 3,893 3,752 141
Oct 22 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 22 7,927 7,254 673 10,403 10,421 -18
Mar 23 1,412 1,412 0 187 246 -59
May 23 18 18 0 0 0 0
Jul 23 18 18 0 0 0 0
Dec 23 40 40 0 659 659 0
Jul 24 0 0 0 220 220 0
Dec 24 0 0 0 220 220 0
Total 128,653 124,306 4,347 46,249 46,100 149
Open Open Change
Jul 21 2 2 0
Oct 21 289 280 9
Dec 21 148,129 148,366 -237
Mar 22 41,824 39,551 2,273
May 22 7,657 7,181 476
Jul 22 10,951 10,319 632
Oct 22 2 2 0
Dec 22 14,124 13,016 1,108
Mar 23 271 204 67
May 23 15 3 12
Jul 23 4 3 1
Dec 23 3 3 0
Jul 24 0 0 0
Dec 24 0 0 0
Total 223,271 218,930 4,341
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher even as there are no new tropical systems forming in the Atlantic at this time and conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops. Speculators were reported to be the best buyers as chart trends turned up again. USDA slightly increased its production estimate for the second month in its production reports released on Monday. A big storm could threaten trees and fruit. Brazil is reported to be in good condition, but dry. It has been cold but any damage is called minor. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production. Northern and western Mexico areas are getting some rains and conditions are rated mostly good. Some areas have had too much rain. Florida inventories are ow 16.7% below a year ago.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 135.00, and 142.00 September. Support is at 128.00, 127.00, and 125.00 September, with resistance at 135.00, 138.00, and 141.00 September.
General Comments: New York was higher and London closed mixed on demand concerns. London remains firm overall on some speculative and commercial buying tied to dry weather in Southeast Asia and on reports that Vietnamese producers were not selling or delivering. New York was higher along with the Brazilian Real as producers there were not willing to sell with the stronger Real. Safras e Mercado said yesterday that the Brazil crop is now about half sold. Temperatures are now warmer in Brazil and there are no forecasts for damaging cold for a week. It could get vey cold after that although maybe not cold enough to damage trees. There was some losses created by a hot and dry start to the growing season that impacted flowering and initial cherry development and a little Coffee was lost during the freeze event a couple of weeks ago. Asian Coffee areas are dry, especially in Southeast Asia, but increasing showers are coming this week and tree condition should be improved. Good conditions are reported in northern South America and good conditions reported in Central America. Colombia is having trouble exporting Coffee due to protests inside the country. Conditions are reported to be generally good in parts of Asia and parts of Africa.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 2.185 million bags. GCA stocks are now 5.779 million bags, from 5.815 million last month. The ICO daily average price is now 147.60 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE said that 0 contracts were posted for delivery today against NY July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 434 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 158.00, 163.00, and 168.00 September. Support is at 155.00, 152.00, and 147.00 September, and resistance is at 158.00, 160.00 and 164.00 September. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1800 and 1880 September. Support is at 1710, 1690, and 1660 September, and resistance is at 1770, 1790, and 1820 September.
General Comments: New York and London were higher yesterday as the medium term down trend started up again. Brazil temperatures have moderated and the weather there is considered mostly good for production. Warmer temperatures are reported now but it is forecast to turn cold again by the end of next week. Mills were also processing for more Ethanol and less for Sugar than expected and this trend should continue with higher world petroleum prices. London has been the leader to the downside on ample supplies of White Sugar available to the market and as demand for White Sugar is less. There is plenty of White Sugar available in India for the market and monsoon rains are promoting good conditions for the next crop. The Indians are selling with or without a subsidy from the government. Thailand is expecting improved production. Sugar demand is said to be weak. Ethanol demand is returning to the market as more world economies open up after the pandemic.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1670, 1640, and 1610 October, and resistance is at 1740, 1760, and 1790 October. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 462.00 and 476.00 October. Support is at 452.00, 446.00, and 440.00 October, and resistance is at 460.00, 470.00, and 477.00 October.
General Comments: New York and London closed lower. The daily charts show short term mixed trends in New York and in London and the fundamentals remain bearish. Ports in West Africa are filled with Cocoa right now as demand remains weaker. The weather has had above average rains in West Africa and crop conditions are rated good. European demand has been slow and demand ideas in general are weak. The next round of quarterly grind data will be released this week and the data from Europe showed a significant increase in demand from extremely low levels seen a year ago due to Covid.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.818 million bags. ICE said that 0 contracts were posted for July delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 271 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2340, 2310, and 2270 September, with resistance at 2390, 2440, and 2460 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1590, 1570, and 1540 September, with resistance at 1630, 1660, and 1670 September.
DJ Asia Cocoa Grindings Rose in 2Q
By Will Horner
Asian cocoa bean grindings rose almost 9% in the second quarter of 2021 from a year earlier, according to figures from the Cocoa Association of Asia released Friday.
Cocoa grindings stood at 220,865 metric tons in the quarter compared to 202,674 tons in the same period of 2020.
The figure also marks a 3.3% increase in grindings from the first quarter of the year, which stood at 213,858 tons.
Cocoa grindings–the volume of cocoa beans processed into the butters and powders used to make chocolate–are often taken as a proxy for cocoa demand.
The industry body compiles grinding data from Malaysia and from Cocoa Association of Asia members in Singapore and Indonesia.