About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets and Minneapolis Spring Wheat were all higher again as the weather in the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains bad for production and on better demand ideas. The export sales report was relatively strong and helped push prices in all three markets higher. USDA showed sharply lower Spring Wheat production and much lower ending stocks estimates for All Wheat in its Monday reports. White Winter Wheat production is also being hurt as both have been impacted by drought and heat this year. Yield reports have generally been good in Winter Wheat areas but there have been mixed results reported in some Great Plains states. Quality has been generally good. World prices are expected to bottom soon and start to move higher, supporting Wheat futures markets in the US.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal. Northern areas should see mostly isolated showers. Temperatures will be near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal. China bought 134,000 tons of US SRW.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 681 September. Support is at 651, 645, and 631 September, with resistance at 676, 682, and 688 September. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 651 and 681 September. Support is at 619, 613, and 604 September, with resistance at 655, 662, and 669 September. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 899 September. Support is at 859, 849, and 825 September, and resistance is at 900, 906, and 912 September.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed a little higher again yesterday in limited volume trading on what appeared to be speculative buying. Growing conditions have been mixed at best with many areas getting too much rain. Rice areas have generally been wet. Louisiana and parts of Mississippi were saturated and are still reported to be wetter than desired for strong production and good quality. Warm temperatures are reported in Arkansas and Missouri and the crop progress is improving. However, it is still very wet in Arkansas. Texas has also been wet.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1298, 1295, and 1289 September, with resistance at 1331, 1340, and 1357 September.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn was lower yesterday in correction trading from the big rally the previous session. Traders are reducing yield estimates from the USDA report of 179.5 bushels per acre to more like 174 bushels per acre and ideas are that more adverse weather could drive yields lower. No one is talking much about increasing yield estimates right now. The weather has improved in the last couple of weeks as many dry areas got a little rain. But, forecast outlooks call for warmer and drier conditions for the rest of the month so the benefits of the rains might be limited. Ideas are that Brazil Corn production will be less than 90 million tons so reduced production estimates are expected in coming reports. It is generally cool with showers around in the Midwest. Oats were higher once again. Canadian Oats areas look to get some rain in the next couple of weeks, but US areas showed mixed conditions in the weekly USDA updates. Longer range forecasts released by NWS call for warmer and drier weather for many important US growing areas this Summer.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 607 and 656 September. Support is at 558, 546, and 540 September, and resistance is at 579, 588, and 598 September. Trends in Oats are up with no objectives. Support is at 424, 403, and 396 September, and resistance is at 444, 452, and 458 September.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were lower in correction trading, but Soybean Oil moved higher once again. There are many areas that do not have good Soybeans in the US. Soybeans conditions in central production area are often too wet and have suffered. The weather forecasts changed to wetter and cooler and the crop needs dry conditions and some heat . Minnesota and northern Iowa and the Dakotas have been very hot and dry but Iowa got very beneficial rain yesterday. Forecasts call for cooler weather this week in the Midwest and northern Great Plains, and it should generally be wet. Next week should be warmer and drier, and warmer and drier outlooks are offered through at least the end of this month. The longer range forecasts from NWS call for warmer and drier than normal conditions for most Soybeans areas of the US.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1456, 1471, and 1530 August. Support is at 1418, 1408, and 1382 August, and resistance is at 1461, 1473, and 1480 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 375.00, 388.00, and 390.00 August. Support is at 358.00, 351.00, and 347.00 August, and resistance is at 371.00, 375.00, and 379.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 7090 August. Support is at 6600, 6380, and 6180 August, with resistance at 6800, 7030, and 7100 August.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were higher on demand ideas and ideas of shrinking supplies. Trends are up on the daily charts. The private surveyors showed more demand for last month in reports issued last week and ideas are that the stronger demand can continue as India has cut its import taxes. Canola closed higher. Trends are still up and weather concerns continue strong. Some showers are in the forecast for the Prairies this week and it remains generally dry. The showers have a chance to be very beneficial as the Prairies crops are in big trouble now due to previous hot and dry weather. Demand has improved a little bit with the recently weaker prices.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 961.00 November. Support is at 872.00, 856.00, and 844.00 November, with resistance at 924.00, 949.00, and 955.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 4340 October. Support is at 4000, 3930, and 3880 October, with resistance at 4150, 4160, and 4220 October.

DJ Canadian Grain Handling Summary – Jul 15
Winnipeg — The following are Canadian grain handling summary statistics
for the week ended July 11, 2021. Figures in thousands of metric tons.
Source: Canadian Grain Commission.
COMMERCIAL STOCKS
This Week 2473.5 635.0 340.4 180.6 38.8 1014.5 234.3 117.5 5423.4
Week Ago 2365.0 631.0 363.2 180.2 39.5 1104.5 231.9 146.8 5442.0
Year Ago 2335.3 593.9 223.2 358.1 56.3 1075.2 170.7 130.2 5442.4
PRODUCER DELIVERIES
This Week 374.4 120.9 45.0 31.4 1.2 188.1 14.9 5.8 807.0
Week Ago 308.2 87.8 26.8 18.7 2.2 182.9 14.5 0.9 674.4
To Date 21121.2 5907.8 2672.3 4612.5 433.2 19557.4 3544.9 364.2 62116.5
Year Ago 20867.1 4914.0 2413.6 3704.2 347.6 19244.0 3627.1 344.2 59320.8
TERMINAL RECEIPTS
This Week 208.9 110.8 2.1 3.4 0.4 68.8 0.9 0.6 460.8
Week Ago 308.4 146.5 1.2 2.2 2.2 51.7 3.7 6.6 544.5
To Date 21876.1 6938.4 607.9 3437.8 219.6 10672.0 2506.6 1444.1 53925.9
Year Ago 19318.5 5982.8 452.2 1980.4 193.7 10198.2 2446.9 559.5 46239.1
EXPORTS
This Week 166.9 154.5 20.3 4.3 0.2 20.1 1.9 0.0 384.0
Week Ago 418.5 26.5 42.8 1.0 0.7 90.6 18.3 32.1 728.3
To Date 18828.6 5774.0 1687.9 3694.9 299.7 10153.1 2552.6 1323.1 49214.7
Year Ago 16739.6 4852.1 1502.5 2043.5 199.5 9477.5 2489.6 416.5 41607.3
DOMESTIC DISAPPEARANCE
This Week 84.6 9.9 16.3 25.2 0.7 158.7 5.3 16.0 333.2
Week Ago 101.5 2.0 9.5 20.9 0.4 183.1 2.6 23.8 374.6
To Date 3840.8 514.4 748.7 1063.6 58.1 10044.7 189.1 844.8 18841.9
Year Ago 3668.0 439.0 746.5 1486.4 50.3 9843.8 224.7 675.3 18736.0
*Totals include data from other crops not shown including rye, soybeans,
canary seed, mustard seed, beans, lentils and chickpeas.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell

Midwest Weather Forecast: Isolated showers north and west, showers and storms south and east. Temperatures should average near normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June July May May May
July July July July
August July July July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jul 15
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 953.50 60.00 Nov. 2021 dn 23.30
Basis: Thunder Bay 952.10 40.00 Nov. 2021 up 18.60
Basis: Vancouver 982.10 70.00 Nov. 2021 up 18.60
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – July 16
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 1097.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Aug 1092.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Sept 1082.50 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1012.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 977.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 1100.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Aug 1095.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Sept 1085.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1015.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 980.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 1040.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 1005.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 4,360.00 +80.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 304.00 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.209)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jul 16
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 188,366 lots, or 11.05 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-21 5,828 5,948 5,815 5,944 5,867 5,858 -9 136,880 86,406
Nov-21 5,880 5,966 5,839 5,957 5,897 5,874 -23 26,067 71,612
Jan-22 5,860 5,986 5,857 5,984 5,906 5,910 4 8,026 18,695
Mar-22 5,819 5,982 5,819 5,976 5,903 5,892 -11 16,074 15,739
May-22 5,942 6,000 5,891 5,982 5,937 5,936 -1 428 1,139
Jul-22 5,912 5,994 5,899 5,994 5,930 5,934 4 891 1,151
Corn
Turnover: 879,500 lots, or 22.77 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-21 2,618 2,618 2,572 2,574 2,617 2,589 -28 620,664 572,564
Nov-21 2,591 2,595 2,563 2,568 2,600 2,577 -23 69,960 242,183
Jan-22 2,595 2,603 2,571 2,575 2,604 2,584 -20 113,708 235,088
Mar-22 2,608 2,608 2,577 2,586 2,609 2,590 -19 54,807 52,609
May-22 2,632 2,636 2,614 2,617 2,633 2,621 -12 4,042 16,226
Jul-22 2,648 2,650 2,615 2,626 2,645 2,636 -9 16,319 1,760
Soymeal
Turnover: 985,925 lots, or 35.86 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-21 3,666 3,682 3,650 3,655 3,660 3,664 4 100 861
Sep-21 3,651 3,670 3,645 3,663 3,656 3,656 0 628,229 1,092,417
Nov-21 3,673 3,688 3,665 3,686 3,674 3,676 2 46,240 57,151
Dec-21 3,650 3,668 3,645 3,665 3,657 3,656 -1 35,433 36,317
Jan-22 3,627 3,635 3,611 3,631 3,622 3,623 1 215,451 611,903
Mar-22 3,461 3,471 3,449 3,469 3,453 3,460 7 40,993 286,402
May-22 3,368 3,379 3,358 3,379 3,366 3,369 3 16,664 84,964
Jul-22 3,357 3,370 3,350 3,365 3,362 3,360 -2 2,815 4,647
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,073,999 lots, or 85.79 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-21 8,370 8,370 8,370 8,370 8,296 8,370 74 2 28
Sep-21 8,030 8,142 7,958 8,054 7,910 8,040 130 917,860 431,383
Oct-21 7,864 7,982 7,812 7,902 7,750 7,890 140 16,214 38,156
Nov-21 7,754 7,898 7,732 7,810 7,664 7,800 136 6,740 39,570
Dec-21 7,678 7,818 7,648 7,736 7,582 7,718 136 9,268 56,932
Jan-22 7,660 7,746 7,572 7,646 7,528 7,648 120 104,148 97,087
Feb-22 7,542 7,700 7,476 7,598 7,490 7,594 104 7,285 8,735
Mar-22 7,594 7,676 7,504 7,570 7,454 7,574 120 5,310 4,246
Apr-22 7,520 7,616 7,442 7,522 7,408 7,516 108 4,912 3,274
May-22 7,436 7,530 7,368 7,446 7,340 7,432 92 2,253 4,798
Jun-22 7,330 7,426 7,298 7,298 7,292 7,342 50 7 25
Jul-22 – – – 7,200 7,200 7,200 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 995,702 lots, or 8.86 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-21 9,008 9,088 9,008 9,088 8,768 9,034 266 3 146
Sep-21 8,922 9,018 8,852 8,912 8,888 8,926 38 838,134 417,151
Nov-21 8,836 8,940 8,782 8,840 8,794 8,854 60 27,345 52,996
Dec-21 8,790 8,862 8,710 8,764 8,724 8,782 58 14,607 74,853
Jan-22 8,750 8,798 8,648 8,694 8,672 8,716 44 104,077 176,620
Mar-22 8,606 8,652 8,516 8,558 8,536 8,578 42 3,685 20,772
May-22 8,380 8,430 8,294 8,336 8,332 8,350 18 1,298 5,727
Jul-22 8,312 8,356 8,218 8,282 8,322 8,280 -42 6,553 3,985
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322