About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Futures were higher yesterday as speculators bought on weather concerns and on ideas of increasing demand. The monthly WASDE report helped fuel the charge higher this week. Production was increased due to a sharp increase in planted and harvested area, but yields were lower. Exports were increased as domestic demand remained unchanged. Ending stocks were higher but still show that a tight situation is developing. Production ideas are being impacted in just about all areas due to the weather extremes. Demand was increased in the weekly export sales report and is expected to stay strong as the world economy rebounds from the Covid times.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures and Southeast will get scattered showers and near normal temperatures. Texas will have isolated showers and near to below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 84.66 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 110,746 bales, from 111,793 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for July delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 117 contracts. USDA said that net Upland Cotton weekly export sales were 34,500 bales this year and 116,400 bales net year. Net Pima sales were 6,000 bales this year and 300 bales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 9050 December. Support is at 8630, 8590, and 8470 December, with resistance of 8850, 8930 and 9000 December.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher even as there are no new tropical systems forming in the Atlantic at this time and conditions in Florida are rated mostly good for the crops. USDA slightly increased its production estimate for the second month in its production reports released on Monday. A big storm could threaten trees and fruit. Brazil is reported to be in good condition, but dry. It has been cold but any damage is called minor. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production. Northern and western Mexico areas are getting some rains and conditions are rated mostly good. Some areas have had too much rain. Florida inventories are ow 16.7% below a year ago.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 131.00, 135, and 142.00 September. Support is at 127.00, 125.00, and 122.00 September, with resistance at 130.00, 132.00, and 135.00 September.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London were both higher on demand concerns. London remains firm overall on some speculative and commercial buying tied to dry weather in Southeast Asia and on reports that Vietnamese producers were not selling or delivering. New York was higher along with the Brazilian Real as producers there were not willing to sell with the stronger Real. Temperatures are now warmer in Brazil and there are no forecasts for damaging cold for a while. However, there was some losses created by a hot and dry start to the growing season that impacted flowering and initial cherry development and a little Coffee was lost during the freeze event a couple of weeks ago. Asian Coffee areas are dry, especially in Southeast Asia, but increasing showers are coming this week and tree condition should be improved. Good conditions are reported in northern South America and good conditions reported in Central America. Colombia is having trouble exporting Coffee due to protests inside the country. Conditions are reported to be generally good in parts of Asia and parts of Africa.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 2.181 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 146.26 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE said that 0 contracts were posted for delivery today against NY July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 434 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 158.00, 163.00, and 168.00 September. Support is at 152.00, 147.00, and 146.00 September, and resistance is at 158.00, 160.00 and 164.00 September. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1800 and 1880 September. Support is at 1710, 1690, and 1660 September, and resistance is at 1750, 1770, and 1790 September.

DJ Brazil’s 2021 Coffee Crop Half Sold, Harvest More Than Half Finished — Market Talk
0831 ET – Brazilian coffee growers had already sold 48% of the 2021 crop as of July 13, ahead of the five-year average for the date of 33%, according to agricultural consultancy Safras & Mercado. Safras forecasts a total 2021 crop of 56.5 million 132-pound bags. Unusually dry weather in coffee-growing parts of the country will mean a bigger-than-normal decline in the crop for this year, and some growers are concerned Brazil, the world’s biggest coffee producer and exporter, might not be able to meet export demand next year ahead of the 2022 harvest. The 2021 harvest was 62% finished as of July 13, Safras said. (jeffrey.lewis@wsj.com)

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London were lower yesterday as the medium term down trend started up again. Brazil temperatures have moderated and the weather there is considered mostly good for production. Warmer temperatures are reported now. Mills were also processing for more Ethanol and less for Sugar than expected and this trend should continue with higher world petroleum prices. London has been the leader to the downside on ample supplies of White Sugar available to the market and as demand for White Sugar is less. There is plenty of White Sugar available in India for the market and monsoon rains are promoting good conditions for the next crop. The Indians are selling with or without a subsidy from the government. Thailand is expecting improved production. Sugar demand is said to be weak. Ethanol demand is returning to the market as more world economies open up after the pandemic.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1640 and 1630 October. Support is at 1670, 1640, and 1610 October, and resistance is at 1740, 1760, and 1790 October. Trends in London are down with objectives of 438.00 October. Support is at 442.00, 440.00, and 436.00 October, and resistance is at 453.00, 460.00, and 470.00 October.

COCOA
General Comments: New York closed slightly higher and London closed a little lower in consolidation trading. The daily charts show short term up trends in New York and in London but the fundamentals remain bearish. Ports in West Africa are filled with Cocoa right now as demand remains weaker. The weather has had above average rains in West Africa and crop conditions are rated good. European demand has been slow and demand ideas in general are weak. The next round of quarterly grind data will be released this week and the data should show a significant increase in demand from extremely low levels seen a year ago due to Covid. The EU Cocoa grind was 356,854 tons in the second quarter of this year, up 13.6% from last year. The North American grind data will be published on Friday.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.814 million bags. ICE said that 0 contracts were posted for July delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 271 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 2370, 2340, and 2310 September, with resistance at 2440, 2460, and 2500 September. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1690 September. Support is at 1630, 1610, and 1590 September, with resistance at 1670, 1690, and 1710 September.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322