About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Jul 15
For the week ended Jul 8, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 424.7 0.0 7115.6 8254.6 5202.9 0.0
hrw 183.5 0.0 2353.0 3183.1 1613.7 0.0
srw 31.9 0.0 1115.4 743.1 884.4 0.0
hrs 126.9 0.0 2161.8 2452.1 1584.8 0.0
white 72.3 0.0 1435.2 1549.7 1111.6 0.0
durum 10.1 0.0 50.1 326.7 8.4 0.0
corn 138.8 133.2 69859.1 43489.8 10111.4 16079.7
soybeans 21.7 290.8 61926.0 46087.1 3234.2 9688.6
soymeal 70.7 126.4 11521.2 11364.9 2147.2 1038.2
soyoil -0.9 0.0 676.5 1223.9 19.1 0.6
upland cotton 34.5 116.4 16150.8 17019.3 2031.3 2720.5
pima cotton 6.0 0.3 833.7 583.0 110.3 4.5
sorghum 0.4 0.0 7230.5 4283.2 822.1 1594.9
barley 0.0 0.0 25.1 38.7 23.7 0.0
rice 9.8 0.0 3355.2 3350.4 376.8 20.0

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jul 15
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL July Jul 16, 2021 11 Jul 14, 2021
SOYBEAN OIL July Jul 16, 2021 1 Jul 14, 2021
ROUGH RICE July Jul 16, 2021 5 Jul 14, 2021
CORN July Jul 16, 2021 77 Jun 30, 2021
KC HRW WHEAT July Jul 16, 2021 1 Jul 14, 2021
WHEAT July Jul 16, 2021 1 Jul 14, 2021

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets and Minneapolis Spring Wheat were all higher as the weather in the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains bad for production and on better demand ideas. USDA showed sharply lower Spring Wheat production and much lower ending stocks estimates for All Wheat in its Monday reports. White Winter Wheat production is also being hurt as both have been impacted by drought and heat this year. Yield reports have generally been good in Winter Wheat areas but there have been mixed results reported in some Great Plains states. Quality has been generally good. Egypt has entered the international arket in the last two weeks for Wheat. World prices are expected to bottom soon and start to move higher, supporting Wheat futures markets in the US.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal. Northern areas should see mostly isolated showers. Temperatures will be near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 681 September. Support is at 638, 630, and 621 September, with resistance at 658, 666, and 6576 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 651 and 681 September. Support is at 619, 5613, and 604 September, with resistance at 638, 655, and 662 September. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 899 September. Support is at 859, 849, and 825 September, and resistance is at 882, 888, and 894 September.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed higher again yesterday on what appeared to be speculative buying. Growing conditions have been mixed at best with many areas getting too much rain. Rice areas have generally been wet. Louisiana and parts of Mississippi were saturated and are still reported to be wetter than desired for strong production and good quality. Warm temperatures are reported in Arkansas and Missouri and the crop progress is improving. However, it is still very wet in Arkansas. Texas has also been wet.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1298, 1295, and 1289 September, with resistance at 1331, 1340, and 1357 September.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn was higher again yesterday on what appeared to be speculative buying. Traders are reducing yield estimates from the USDA report of 179.5 bushels per acre to more like 174 bushels per acre and ideas are that more adverse weather could drive yields lower. No one is talking much about increasing yield estimates right now. The weather has improved in the last couple of weeks as many dry areas got a little rain. Northern Iowa got rains yesterday. But, forecast outlooks call for warmer and drier conditions for the rest of the month so the benefits of the rains might be limited. Ideas are that Brazil Corn production will be less than 90 million tons so reduced production estimates are expected in coming reports. It is generally cool with showers around in the Midwest. USDA adjusted the new crop production estimates higher due to increased acreage but left yields unchanged. Export and residual demand was increased but not enough to offset the increased production potential. Ending stocks were also higher but were left tight overall. USDA lowered the Brazil Corn production estimate to 93 million tons but ideas are that USDA still has a ways to go to fully account for the loss. Oats were higher once again. Canadian Oats areas look to get some rain in the next couple of weeks, but US areas showed mixed conditions in the weekly USDA updates. Longer range forecasts released by NWS call for warmer and drier weather for many important US growing areas this Summer.
Overnight News: Ethanol production was 1.041 million barrels per day last week, from 1.067 million the previous week and 931,000 bushels the previous year. Ethanol stocks are now 21.1 million barrels, from 21.1 million the previous week and 20.6 million the previous year. Corn used for Ethanol production now totals 4.307 billion bushels this year, from 4.157 million the previous year.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 607 and 656 September. Support is at 558, 546, and 540 September, and resistance is at 579, 588, and 598 September. Trends in Oats are up with no objectives. Support is at 424, 403, and 396 September, and resistance is at 444, 452, and 458 September.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher on weather concerns. There are many areas that do not have good Soybeans in the US. Soybeans conditions in central production area are often too wet and have suffered. The weather forecasts changed to wetter and cooler and the crop needs dry conditions and some heat . Minnesota and northern Iowa and the Dakotas have been very hot and dry but Iowa got very beneficial rain yesterday. Forecasts call for cooler weather this week in the Midwest and northern Great Plains, and it should generally be wet. Next week should be warmer and drier, and warmer and drier outlooks are offered through at least the end of this month. The longer range forecasts from NWS call for warmer and drier than normal conditions for most Soybeans areas of the US.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1456, 1471, and 1530 August. Support is at 1418, 1408, and 1382 August, and resistance is at 1460, 14373, and 1481 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 375.00, 388.00, and 390.00 August. Support is at 358.00, 351.00, and 347.00 August, and resistance is at 375.00, 379.00, and 387.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 6700 and 7090 August. Support is at 6380, 6180, and 5940 August, with resistance at 6800, 7030, and 7100 August.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were higher on demand ideas and ideas of shrinking supplies. Trends are up on the daily charts. The private surveyors showed more demand for last month in reports issued last week and ideas are that the stronger demand can continue as India has cut its import taxes. Canola closed lower, but trends are still up and weather concerns continue strong. Some showers are in the forecast for the Prairies this week and it remains generally dry. The showers have a chance to be very beneficial as the Prairies crops are in big trouble now due to previous hot and dry weather. Demand has improved a little bit with the recently weaker prices.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 961.00 November. Support is at 872.00, 856.00, and 844.00 November, with resistance at 924.00, 949.00, and 955.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 4110 and 4340 October. Support is at 3880, 3750, and 3660 October, with resistance at 4050, 4150, and 4160 October.

DJ Malaysia July 1-15 Palm Oil Exports 684,615 Tons, Up 4.9%, AmSpec Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the July 1-15 period are estimated to have risen 4.9% from a month earlier to 684,615 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Thursday.
The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
July 1-15 June 1-15
RBD Palm Olein 180,438 170,550
RBD Palm Oil 45,347 22,740
RBD Palm Stearin 65,330 50,300
Crude Palm Oil 142,835 187,275
Total* 684,615 652,770
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Isolated showers north and west, showers and storms south and east. Temperatures should average near normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June July May May May
July July July July
August July July July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jul 14
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 976.80 60.00 Nov. 2021 up 27.80
Basis: Thunder Bay 933.50 40.00 Nov. 2021 dn 23.30
Basis: Vancouver 963.50 70.00 Nov. 2021 dn 23.30
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – July 15
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 1092.50 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Aug 1077.50 +35.00 Unquoted – –
Sept 1062.50 +35.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1007.50 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 965.00 +27.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 1095.00 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Aug 1080.00 +35.00 Unquoted – –
Sept 1065.00 +35.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1010.00 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 967.50 +27.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 1050.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 1010.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 4,280.00 +130.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 305.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.201)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jul 15
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 211,507 lots, or 12.43 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-21 5,930 5,931 5,806 5,828 5,939 5,867 -72 163,127 87,840
Nov-21 5,980 5,980 5,836 5,860 5,968 5,897 -71 21,370 70,853
Jan-22 5,957 5,957 5,855 5,871 5,957 5,906 -51 11,630 17,586
Mar-22 5,962 5,962 5,853 5,878 5,962 5,903 -59 13,972 15,457
May-22 5,960 5,975 5,888 5,912 5,979 5,937 -42 354 1,095
Jul-22 5,941 5,969 5,893 5,906 5,979 5,930 -49 1,054 622
Corn
Turnover: 660,000 lots, or 17.26 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-21 2,623 2,629 2,604 2,609 2,607 2,617 10 462,930 590,230
Nov-21 2,601 2,611 2,588 2,593 2,589 2,600 11 41,803 243,419
Jan-22 2,610 2,614 2,595 2,599 2,595 2,604 9 92,200 237,081
Mar-22 2,614 2,621 2,600 2,606 2,599 2,609 10 43,959 52,706
May-22 2,633 2,642 2,627 2,631 2,621 2,633 12 4,267 16,521
Jul-22 2,650 2,661 2,625 2,649 2,621 2,645 24 14,841 1,293
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,230,383 lots, or 44.73 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-21 3,654 3,671 3,644 3,656 3,623 3,660 37 42 825
Sep-21 3,636 3,678 3,627 3,662 3,617 3,656 39 805,020 1,094,807
Nov-21 3,642 3,697 3,642 3,681 3,636 3,674 38 60,731 57,622
Dec-21 3,631 3,674 3,626 3,662 3,613 3,657 44 28,826 36,410
Jan-22 3,598 3,642 3,592 3,629 3,583 3,622 39 257,422 608,698
Mar-22 3,432 3,478 3,427 3,465 3,418 3,453 35 55,076 292,911
May-22 3,343 3,384 3,340 3,372 3,333 3,366 33 18,031 85,545
Jul-22 3,333 3,375 3,333 3,357 3,333 3,362 29 5,235 4,035
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,038,520 lots, or 81.65 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-21 8,530 8,530 8,250 8,296 8,136 8,296 160 29 30
Sep-21 7,888 8,022 7,772 7,970 7,820 7,910 90 892,734 428,584
Oct-21 7,706 7,864 7,638 7,822 7,652 7,750 98 18,052 38,314
Nov-21 7,622 7,786 7,560 7,736 7,578 7,664 86 6,174 39,945
Dec-21 7,536 7,698 7,482 7,648 7,506 7,582 76 11,616 57,071
Jan-22 7,500 7,624 7,416 7,572 7,442 7,528 86 97,026 91,419
Feb-22 7,458 7,578 7,386 7,532 7,412 7,490 78 5,136 7,702
Mar-22 7,442 7,544 7,344 7,500 7,374 7,454 80 3,859 4,212
Apr-22 7,380 7,494 7,306 7,452 7,340 7,408 68 3,116 3,224
May-22 7,300 7,426 7,230 7,378 7,278 7,340 62 775 4,581
Jun-22 7,306 7,306 7,266 7,306 7,200 7,292 92 3 23
Jul-22 – – – 7,200 7,200 7,200 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 969,931 lots, or 85.86 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-21 – – – 8,768 8,768 8,768 0 0 146
Sep-21 8,850 8,954 8,802 8,902 8,796 8,888 92 793,820 416,230
Nov-21 8,738 8,872 8,722 8,826 8,712 8,794 82 35,387 53,813
Dec-21 8,680 8,800 8,656 8,770 8,642 8,724 82 14,050 76,992
Jan-22 8,612 8,738 8,596 8,702 8,586 8,672 86 114,499 175,800
Mar-22 8,526 8,598 8,458 8,570 8,456 8,536 80 6,247 20,910
May-22 8,290 8,376 8,280 8,324 8,248 8,332 84 1,520 5,721
Jul-22 8,248 8,538 8,226 8,258 8,248 8,322 74 4,408 2,600
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322