About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jul 14
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL July Jul 15, 2021 96 Jul 13, 2021
SOYBEAN OIL July Jul 15, 2021 2 Jul 12, 2021
ROUGH RICE July Jul 15, 2021 10 Jul 13, 2021
WHEAT July Jul 15, 2021 15 Jun 30, 2021

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were a little lower in consolidation trading and Minneapolis Spring Wheat was higher as the weather in the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains bad for production. USDA showed sharply lower Spring Wheat production and much lower ending stocks estimates for All Wheat in its Monday reports. White Winter Wheat production is also being hurt as both have been impacted by drought and heat this year. Yield reports have generally been good in Winter Wheat areas but there have been mixed results reported in some Great Plains states. Quality has been generally good.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal. Northern areas should see mostly isolated showers. Temperatures will be near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 651 and 681 September. Support is at 621, 610, and 594 September, with resistance at 645, 648, and 658 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 651 and 681 September. Support is at 595, 578, and 568 September, with resistance at 619, 628, and 638 September. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 899 September. Support is at 849, 825, and 817 September, and resistance is at 870, 876, and 882 September.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed higher again yesterday after trading lower early in the session. The rally comes in the wake of bearish estimates from the WASDE report as many in the trade had expected the bearishness. USDA increased carry in for the new crop by a lot and also cut demand. It cut yield estimates for this growing season and also reduced planted and harvested acreage. The cuts to demand and supply were not enough to overcome the increased carry in and ending stocks were up. Growing conditions have been mixed at best with many areas getting too much rain. Rice areas have generally been wet. Louisiana and parts of Mississippi were saturated and are still reported to be wetter than desired for strong production and good quality. Warm temperatures are reported in Arkansas and Missouri and the crop progress is improving. However, it is still very wet in Arkansas. Texas has also been wet.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1298, 1295, and 1289 September, with resistance at 1331, 1340, and 1357 September.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Jul 14
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 16.62 10.63 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 16.26 10.86 0.00
Brokens 10.54 —- —-

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn was higher again yesterday on what appeared to be speculative buying. Traders are reducing yield estimates from the USDA report of 179.5 bushels per acre to more like 174 bushels per acre and ideas are that more adverse weather could drive yields lower. No one is talking much about increasing yield estimates right now. Ideas are that Brazil Corn production will be less than 90 million tons so reduced production estimates are expected in coming reports. It is generally cool with showers around in the Midwest. USDA adjusted the new crop production estimates higher due to increased acreage but left yields unchanged. Export and residual demand was increased but not enough to offset the increased production potential. Ending stocks were also higher but were left tight overall. USDA lowered the Brazil Corn production estimate to 93 million tons but ideas are that USDA still has a ways to go to fully account for the loss. Weather forecasts now call for cooler temperatures and generous rains in the Midwest, including in the very dry northwest parts of the belt. However, the northwest will stay generally too dry. It will not be as hot in the Great Plains and western Midwest as it has been. Pollination is coming and it looks like pollination will happen under good conditions. Oats were higher once again. Canadian Oats areas look to get some rain in the next couple of weeks, but US areas showed mixed conditions in the weekly USDA updates. Longer range forecasts released by NWS call for warmer and drier weather for many important US growing areas this Summer.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 540, 528, and 525 September, and resistance is at 570, 579, and 588 September. Trends in Oats are up with no objectives. Support is at 403, 396, and 392 September, and resistance is at 428, 431, and 434 September.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil were higher and Soybean Meal was a little lower. The Soybean Oil-Soybean Meal spreads were active again yesterday as petroleum prices hold strong. There are many areas that do not have good Soybeans in the US. Soybeans conditions in central production area are often too wet and have suffered. The weather forecasts changed to wetter and cooler and the crop needs dry conditions and some heat . Minnesota and northern Iowa and the Dakotas have been very hot and dry but should get very beneficial rain. Forecasts call for cooler weather this week in the Midwest and northern Great Plains, and it should generally be wet. China has started with new US Soybeans purchases for Fall delivery. The longer range forecasts from NWS call for warmer and drier than normal conditions for most Soybeans areas of the US.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1456, 1471, and 1530 August. Support is at 1382, 1334, and 12316 August, and resistance is at 1425, 1438, and 1460 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 351.00, 347.00, and 341.00 August, and resistance is at 367.00, 375.00, and 379.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 6590, 6700, and 7090 August. Support is at 6180, 5940, and 5900 August, with resistance at 6630, 6800, and 7030 August.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were sharply higher Friday on a lower Ringgit and in sympathy with Chicago. Futures were higher for the week. Palm Oil was lower today on increased monthly stocks totals by MPOB. Trends are mixed on the daily charts but are starting to turn up. The private surveyors showed more demand for last month in reports issued last week and ideas are that the stronger demand can continue as India has cut its import taxes. Canola closed sharply higher on weather concerns. Some showers are in the forecast for the Prairies this week and it remains generally dry. The showers have a chance to be very beneficial as the Prairies crops are in big trouble now due to previous hot and dry weather. Demand has improved a little bit with the recently weaker prices.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 961.00 November. Support is at 900.00, 889.00, and 856.00 November, with resistance at 949.00, 955.00, and 961.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 3890 and 3960 September. Support is at 3900, 3810, and 3700 September, with resistance at 4010, 4100, and 4200 September.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Isolated showers north and west, showers and storms south and east. Temperatures should average near normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June July May May May
July July July July
August July July July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jul 13
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 949.00 60.00 Nov. 2021 up 25.00
Basis: Thunder Bay 956.80 40.00 Nov. 2021 up 27.80
Basis: Vancouver 986.80 70.00 Nov. 2021 up 27.80
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – July 14
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 1062.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Aug 1042.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Sept 1027.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 977.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 937.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 1065.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Aug 1045.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Sept 1030.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 980.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 940.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 1040.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 995.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 4,150.00 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 300.00 +02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.201)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jul 14
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 197,991 lots, or 11.77 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-21 – – – 5,765 5,907 5,765 -142 0 0
Sep-21 5,950 5,981 5,881 5,930 5,950 5,939 -11 156,485 92,262
Nov-21 5,977 6,000 5,909 5,959 5,969 5,968 -1 22,967 71,239
Jan-22 5,966 5,992 5,905 5,948 5,976 5,957 -19 7,113 16,982
Mar-22 5,958 5,992 5,906 5,950 5,965 5,962 -3 10,961 15,282
May-22 5,981 6,002 5,942 5,985 5,985 5,979 -6 465 1,144
Corn
Turnover: 868,230 lots, or 22.61 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-21 – – – 2,605 2,785 2,605 -180 0 0
Sep-21 2,591 2,627 2,581 2,624 2,579 2,607 28 649,754 608,248
Nov-21 2,581 2,607 2,574 2,607 2,572 2,589 17 66,943 246,560
Jan-22 2,585 2,608 2,581 2,608 2,584 2,595 11 106,613 241,937
Mar-22 2,594 2,620 2,585 2,620 2,582 2,599 17 40,478 52,262
May-22 2,617 2,635 2,610 2,632 2,605 2,621 16 4,442 15,997
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,344,594 lots, or 48.40 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-21 – – – 3,506 3,568 3,506 -62 0 0
Aug-21 3,636 3,639 3,600 3,621 3,600 3,623 23 161 817
Sep-21 3,623 3,637 3,589 3,625 3,607 3,617 10 889,543 1,080,709
Nov-21 3,631 3,656 3,609 3,642 3,625 3,636 11 81,266 60,871
Dec-21 3,614 3,630 3,588 3,623 3,603 3,613 10 28,297 36,889
Jan-22 3,585 3,603 3,558 3,589 3,572 3,583 11 273,517 600,341
Mar-22 3,419 3,437 3,395 3,425 3,412 3,418 6 47,543 288,338
May-22 3,337 3,348 3,315 3,339 3,331 3,333 2 24,267 84,627
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,075,730 lots, or 83.59 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-21 – – – 8,192 7,998 8,192 194 0 0
Aug-21 – – – 8,136 8,040 8,136 96 0 19
Sep-21 7,856 7,916 7,712 7,890 7,810 7,820 10 919,460 416,654
Oct-21 7,688 7,746 7,560 7,736 7,632 7,652 20 17,788 38,275
Nov-21 7,590 7,666 7,482 7,660 7,548 7,578 30 7,122 40,614
Dec-21 7,458 7,588 7,414 7,582 7,468 7,506 38 6,267 58,712
Jan-22 7,470 7,512 7,352 7,500 7,400 7,442 42 108,720 89,865
Feb-22 7,446 7,474 7,326 7,464 7,356 7,412 56 6,121 7,425
Mar-22 7,380 7,440 7,290 7,428 7,334 7,374 40 4,733 4,192
Apr-22 7,348 7,382 7,270 7,372 7,320 7,340 20 3,399 3,301
May-22 7,322 7,326 7,220 7,304 7,268 7,278 10 2,110 4,623
Jun-22 7,206 7,236 7,120 7,218 7,228 7,200 -28 10 23
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 975,726 lots, or 85.51 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-21 – – – 8,938 8,940 8,938 -2 0 0
Aug-21 – – – 8,768 8,768 8,768 0 0 146
Sep-21 8,800 8,870 8,732 8,850 8,726 8,796 70 799,275 416,098
Nov-21 8,740 8,776 8,656 8,766 8,642 8,712 70 38,565 54,549
Dec-21 8,644 8,714 8,590 8,696 8,566 8,642 76 12,072 75,931
Jan-22 8,580 8,650 8,532 8,642 8,500 8,586 86 120,023 177,322
Mar-22 8,436 8,514 8,408 8,504 8,364 8,456 92 4,807 21,218
May-22 8,214 8,298 8,202 8,290 8,174 8,248 74 984 5,599
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322