About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jul 13
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL July Jul 14, 2021 147 Jul 12, 2021
ROUGH RICE July Jul 14, 2021 12 Jul 12, 2021
WHEAT July Jul 14, 2021 20 Jun 30, 2021

DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand Report
WASHINGTON–The following are key numbers from USDA’s crop report
and how the government’s estimates compared to analysts’ forecasts in a
Wall Street Journal survey.
U.S. 2021 Production, Yield (million bushels, bushels per acre)
Monday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA June
Corn Production 15,165 15,007 14,182-15,168 14,990
Soybean Production 4,405 4,374 4,135-4,405 4,405
Monday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA June
Corn Yield 179.5 * 178.0 172.0-179.5 179.5
Soybean Yield 50.8 ** 50.6 50.0-50.8 50.8
***
U.S. Stockpiles (million bushels)
2020-21
Monday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA June
Corn 1,082 1,091 957-1,211 1,107
Soybeans 135 136 115-149 135
Wheat 844 845 843-852 852
2021-22
Monday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA June
Corn 1,432 1,309 1,057-1,540 1,357
Soybeans 155 140 102-165 155
Wheat 665 711 573-809 770
***
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2020-21
Monday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA June
Corn 279.9 278.4 274.0-284.0 280.6
Soybeans 91.5 87.6 86.7- 88.7 88.0
Wheat 290.2 293.5 292.8-295.0 293.5
2021-22
Monday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA June
Corn 291.2 287.0 278.6-291.7 289.4
Soybeans 94.5 92.3 90.5- 93.5 92.6
Wheat 291.7 295.8 292.0-300.0 296.8
***
2021-22 Wheat Production (million bushels)
Monday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA June
All Wheat x,xxx 1,835 1,724-1,932 1,898
Winter Wheat 1,264 1,337 1,308-1,372 1,309
Hard Red Winter 805 792 762-826 771
Other Spring 345 446 358-537 N/A
Durum 37 52 40-65 N/A
2020-21 Brazil Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Monday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA June
Corn 93.0 91.5 87.9- 97.0 98.5
Soybeans 137.0 137.0 135.7-138.0 137.0
2020-21 Argentina Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Monday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA June
Corn 48.5 47.5 47.0-48.0 47.0
Soybeans 46.5 46.4 45.0-47.0 47.0

DJ USDA Supply/Demand: Crop Summary – Jul 12
U.S. ending stocks in million bushels, except soyoil in million pounds,
cotton in million (480 pound) bales and rice in million cwt. Exports and
Production in million metric tons except cotton in million (480 pound) bales.
Projections based on trends and analysts’ judgments, not survey
date. Source: USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board.
======U.S.====== ================WORLD=======================
Ending Stocks Exports Production
21/22 20/21 19/20: 21/22 20/21 19/20: 21/22 20/21 19/20
Soybeans 155.0 135.0 525.0:172.85 165.49 165.06:385.22 363.57 339.41
Brazil na na na: 93.00 83.00 92.14:144.00 137.00 128.50
Argentina na na na: 6.35 3.70 10.00: 52.00 46.50 48.80
China na na na: 0.10 0.10 0.09: 19.00 19.60 18.10
Soyoil 1,488 1,793 1,853: 12.80 12.53 12.31: 62.32 60.46 58.36
Corn 1,432 1,082 1,919:198.84 183.10 172.41: 1,195 1,121 1,118
China na na na: 0.02 0.02 0.01:268.00 260.67 260.78
Argentina na na na: 36.00 35.50 36.25: 51.00 48.50 51.00
S.Africa na na na: 3.20 3.20 2.55: 17.00 17.00 15.84
Cotton(a) 3.30 3.15 7.25: 45.92 48.00 41.44:119.39 112.56 121.42
All Wheat 665 844 1,028:203.99 201.42 194.97:792.40 775.82 763.49
China na na na: 1.00 0.80 1.05:136.00 134.25 133.59
European
Union na na na: 34.00 30.75 39.77:138.20 125.94 138.74
Canada na na na: 23.00 27.50 24.63: 31.50 35.18 32.67
Argentina na na na: 13.50 10.50 13.50: 20.50 17.63 19.78
Australia na na na: 20.50 23.00 9.14: 28.50 33.00 14.48
Russia na na na: 40.00 38.50 34.49: 85.00 85.35 73.61
Ukraine na na na: 21.00 16.75 21.01: 30.00 25.42 29.17
Sorghum 17.0 13.0 30.0: na na na: na na na
Barley 57.0 72.0 80.0: na na na: na na na
Oats 25.0 38.0 37.0: na na na: na na na
Rice 41.3 45.9 28.7: 47.12 49.06 43.38:506.04 504.94 497.74

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Jul 12
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND WEIGHED
THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT. NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS,
COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING JUL 8, 2021
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 07/8/2021 07/1/2021 07/9/2020 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 744 0 1,919 367
CORN 993,974 1,236,243 917,968 59,146,024 35,297,236
FLAXSEED 0 0 24 0 317
MIXED 24 0 0 24 0
OATS 0 100 0 100 400
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 73,294 4,349 71,755 6,556,602 4,141,859
SOYBEANS 200,933 208,136 483,429 57,655,465 37,866,691
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 240 0
WHEAT 424,327 361,811 659,727 2,323,828 3,074,575
Total 1,692,552 1,811,383 2,132,903 125,684,202 80,381,445
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

Crop Progress
Date 11-Jul 4-Jul 2020 Avg
Cotton Squaring 55 42 61 61
Cotton Setting Bolls 16 11 17 20
Corn Silking 26 10 26 30
Corn Dough 3 3 3
Soybeans Blooming 46 29 46 40
Soybreans Setting Pods 10 3 10 10
Sorghum Headed 29 22 27 28
Sorghum Coloring 15 14 15 16
Rice Headed 21 14 23 25
Peanuts Pegging 63 48 64 64
Oats Headed 94 88 92 91
Oats Harvested 11 11 12
Winter Wheat Harvested 59 45 66 65
Spring Wheat Headed 83 69 73 81
Barley Headed 78 59 73 78

Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 1 8 35 44 12
Cotton Last Week 1 9 38 44 8
Cotton Last Year 4 22 30 36 8

Corn This Week 2 6 27 51 14
Corn Last Week 2 7 27 50 14
Corn Last Year 2 6 23 52 17

Soybeans This Week 3 8 30 49 10
Soybeans Last Week 3 8 30 49 10
Soybeans Last Year 2 5 25 54 14

Spring Wheat This Week 21 34 29 15 1
Spring Wheat Last Week 18 32 34 14 2
Spring Wheat Last Year 2 6 24 57 11

Rice This Week 1 4 24 55 16
Rice Last Week 1 3 23 57 16
Rice Last Year 0 2 24 55 18

Oats This Week 11 21 33 30 5
Oats Last Week 9 21 36 29 5
Oats Last Year 2 8 29 50 11

Barley This Week 16 27 33 20 4
Barley Last Week 13 26 39 15 7
Barley Last Year 1 4 26 46 23

Sorghum This Week 1 4 25 57 13
Sorghum Last Week 1 3 24 58 14
Sorghum Last Year 3 13 38 39 7

Peanuts This Week 0 2 25 63 10
Peanuts Last Week 0 2 29 61 8
Peanuts Last Year 1 6 20 65 8

Pasture and Range This Week 19 20 27 26 8
Pasture and Range Last Week 20 22 27 25 6
Pasture and Range Last Year 11 19 34 31 5

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were higher and Minneapolis Spring Wheat was sharply higher in reaction to the USDA WASDE estimates. USDA showed sharply lower Spring Wheat production and much lower ending stocks estimates for All Wheat. The report was bullish due to these changes as the market had expected a much smaller reduction in Spring Wheat production. White Winter Wheat production is also being hurt as both have been impacted by drought and heat this year. Yield reports have generally been good in Winter Wheat areas but there have been mixed results reported in some Great Plains states. Quality has been generally average.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal. Northern areas should see mostly isolated showers. Temperatures will be near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 621, 610, and 594 September, with resistance at 645, 648, and 658 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 625, 651, and 681 September. Support is at 595, 578, and 568 September, with resistance at 618, 638, and 655 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 858 and 899 September. Support is at 822, 817, and 796 September, and resistance is at 860, 864, and 870 September.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed a little higher yesterday despite bearish estimates from the USDA WASDE reports. USDA increased carry in for the new crop by a lot and also cut demand. It cut yield estimates for this growing season and also reduced planted and harvested acreage. The cuts to demand and supply were not enough to overcome the increased carry in and ending stocks were up. The report was as expected but offered no big reason to buy, but the selling was very limited in response so futures drifted higher. Growing conditions have been mixed at best with many areas getting too much rain. Rice areas have generally been wet. Louisiana and parts of Mississippi were saturated and are still reported to be wetter than desired for strong production and good quality. Some big storms are in the forecast for the rest of the week. Warm temperatures are reported in Arkansas and Missouri and the crop progress is improving. However, it is still very wet in Arkansas and farmer progress has been limited for the last couple of weeks. Texas has been wet.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1275, 1256, and 1250 September, with resistance at 1298, 1311, and 1331 September.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn was higher in response to the WASDE estimates. It is generally cool with showers around in the Midwest. USDA adjusted the new crop production estimates higher due to increased acreage but left yields unchanged. Export and residual demand was increased but not enough to offset the increased production potential. Ending stocks were also higher but were left tight overall. USDA lowered the Brazil Corn production estimate to 93 million tons but ideas are that USDA still has a ways to go to fully account for the loss. Weather forecasts now call for cooler temperatures and generous rains in the Midwest, including in the very dry northwest parts of the belt. However, the northwest will stay generally too dry. It will not be as hot in the Great Plains and western Midwest as it has been. Pollination is coming and it looks like pollination will happen under good conditions. Oats were higher. Canadian Oats areas look to get some rain in the next couple of weeks, but US areas showed mixed conditions in the weekly USDA updates. Longer range forecasts released by NWS call for warmer and drier weather for many important US growing areas this Summer.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 521, 516, and 505 September, and resistance is at 550, 555, and 570 September. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 410 September. Support is at 392, 389, and 384 September, and resistance is at 406, 409, and 412 September.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher in reaction to the USDA WASDE reports. USDA made some small changes to the demand for the current marketing year and also modified production to fit the reduced demand. It made no changes to the new crop supply or demand estimates. The market had expected increased production and ending stocks. Soybeans held the weekly trading range last week and closed in the middle of the range. There are many areas that do not have good Soybeans in the US. Soybeans conditions in central production area are often too wet and have suffered. The weather forecasts changed to wetter and cooler and the crop needs dry conditions and some heat . Minnesota and northern Iowa and the Dakotas have been very hot and dry but should get very beneficial rain. Forecasts call for cooler weather this week in the Midwest and northern Great Plains, and it should generally be wet. China has started with new US Soybeans purchases for Fall delivery. The longer range forecasts from NWS call for warmer and drier than normal conditions for most Soybeans areas of the US.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1456, 1471, and 1530 August. Support is at 1382, 1334, and 12316 August, and resistance is at 1418, 1438, and 1460 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 351.00, 347.00, and 341.00 August, and resistance is at 367.00, 375.00, and 379.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 6590, 6700, and 7090 August. Support is at 6180, 5940, and 5900 August, with resistance at 6560, 6590, and 6800 August.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were sharply higher Friday on a lower Ringgit and in sympathy with Chicago. Futures were higher for the week. Palm Oil was lower today on increased monthly stocks totals by MPOB. Trends are mixed on the daily charts but are starting to turn up. The private surveyors showed more demand for last month in reports issued last week and ideas are that the stronger demand can continue as India has cut its import taxes. Canola closed sharply higher to limit up in sympathy with Chicago and on weather concerns. Some showers are in the forecast for the Prairies this week and it remains generally dry. The showers have a chance to be very beneficial as the Prairies crops are in big trouble now due to previous hot and dry weather. Demand has improved a little bit with the recently weaker prices.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 889.00 and 961.00 November. Support is at 856.00, 844.00, and 836.00 November, with resistance at 892.00, 898.00, and 904.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 3890 and 3960 September. Support is at 3810, 3700, and 3680 September, with resistance at 3980, 4000, and 4100 September.

DJ Malaysia July 1-10 Palm Oil Exports Down 1.0%, SGS Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the July 1-10 period are estimated down 1.0% on month at 406,897 metric tons, cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. said Monday.
The following are the major items in the SGS estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
July 1-10 June 1-10
RBD Palm Olein 152,664 90,200
RBD Palm Oil 41,713 9,960
RBD Palm Stearin 40,020 43,100
Crude Palm Oil 54,935 102,625
Total* 406,897 411,044
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included
SGS Malaysia is a division of the Switzerland-based Societe Generale de Surveillance Group.

DJ Malaysia’s June Palm Oil Exports 1.42M Tons; Up 12%, MPOB Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports were up 12% on month at 1.42 million metric tons in June, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said.
The following are details of the June crop data and revised numbers for May, issued by MPOB:
June May Change
On Month
Crude Palm Oil Output 1,606,187 1,571,525 Up 2.21%
Palm Oil Exports 1,418,825 1,268,659 Up 11.84%
Palm Kernel Oil Exports 76,327 71,330 Up 7.01%
Palm Oil Imports 113,126 89,014 Up 27.09%
Closing Stocks 1,613,657 1,569,411 Up 2.82%
Crude Palm Oil 798,478 841,312 Dn 5.09%
Processed Palm Oil 815,179 728,099 Up 11.96%

Midwest Weather Forecast: Isolated showers north and west, showers and storms south and east. Temperatures should average near normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June July May May May
July July July July
August July July July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jul 9
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures for July 9, 2021.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 904.00 90.00 Nov 21 up 23.10
Basis: Thunder Bay 884.00 40.00 Nov 21 up 30.00
Basis: Vancouver 14.00 70.00 Nov 21 up 30.00
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – July 13
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 1052.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Aug 1037.50 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Sept 1022.50 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 967.50 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 932.50 +20.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 1055.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Aug 1040.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Sept 1025.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 970.00 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 935.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 1025.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 990.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 4,120.00 +70.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 298.00 +01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.19)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jul 13
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 201,635 lots, or 12.01 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-21 – – – 5,907 5,907 5,907 0 0 30
Sep-21 5,959 5,996 5,908 5,944 5,938 5,950 12 152,941 95,175
Nov-21 5,962 6,021 5,929 5,959 5,967 5,969 2 28,457 72,987
Jan-22 5,986 6,009 5,940 5,966 5,968 5,976 8 6,597 16,843
Mar-22 6,012 6,012 5,936 5,961 5,958 5,965 7 13,201 15,216
May-22 5,979 6,010 5,955 5,982 5,977 5,985 8 439 1,224
Corn
Turnover: 907,695 lots, or 23.42 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-21 – – – 2,785 2,785 2,785 0 0 0
Sep-21 2,565 2,601 2,557 2,595 2,562 2,579 17 669,104 618,899
Nov-21 2,552 2,592 2,550 2,584 2,556 2,572 16 77,825 249,212
Jan-22 2,558 2,601 2,558 2,591 2,567 2,584 17 108,642 242,468
Mar-22 2,567 2,601 2,561 2,591 2,574 2,582 8 46,741 51,433
May-22 2,588 2,622 2,584 2,617 2,598 2,605 7 5,383 15,089
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,193,774 lots, or 42.81 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-21 3,568 3,569 3,568 3,569 3,524 3,568 44 6 722
Aug-21 3,590 3,636 3,585 3,620 3,598 3,600 2 20 770
Sep-21 3,590 3,633 3,582 3,613 3,583 3,607 24 786,589 1,093,692
Nov-21 3,620 3,650 3,601 3,631 3,599 3,625 26 69,390 60,921
Dec-21 3,585 3,623 3,578 3,606 3,566 3,603 37 17,982 36,358
Jan-22 3,559 3,598 3,549 3,578 3,542 3,572 30 238,076 585,119
Mar-22 3,397 3,435 3,390 3,417 3,378 3,412 34 48,527 292,081
May-22 3,318 3,350 3,314 3,336 3,307 3,331 24 33,184 81,207
Palm Oil
Turnover: 857,398 lots, or 6.65 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-21 – – – 7,998 7,998 7,998 0 0 6
Aug-21 8,040 8,040 8,040 8,040 8,040 8,040 0 70 19
Sep-21 7,746 7,898 7,744 7,802 7,834 7,810 -24 727,366 414,074
Oct-21 7,604 7,720 7,568 7,632 7,630 7,632 2 18,324 38,694
Nov-21 7,520 7,628 7,490 7,570 7,542 7,548 6 6,051 41,490
Dec-21 7,424 7,548 7,408 7,498 7,424 7,468 44 6,625 57,937
Jan-22 7,332 7,468 7,308 7,424 7,348 7,400 52 85,598 96,495
Feb-22 7,260 7,428 7,260 7,386 7,280 7,356 76 4,284 7,378
Mar-22 7,288 7,400 7,254 7,362 7,266 7,334 68 4,632 4,143
Apr-22 7,250 7,382 7,250 7,336 7,256 7,320 64 3,034 3,266
May-22 7,200 7,324 7,194 7,260 7,234 7,268 34 1,401 4,450
Jun-22 7,246 7,276 7,194 7,194 7,230 7,228 -2 13 20
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 864,001 lots, or 75.12 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-21 – – – 8,940 8,940 8,940 0 0 224
Aug-21 8,790 8,800 8,752 8,762 8,732 8,768 36 6 146
Sep-21 8,636 8,790 8,632 8,772 8,670 8,726 56 722,578 414,537
Nov-21 8,546 8,702 8,546 8,684 8,584 8,642 58 29,960 56,810
Dec-21 8,488 8,632 8,488 8,620 8,488 8,566 78 12,956 77,319
Jan-22 8,412 8,566 8,402 8,548 8,424 8,500 76 90,643 173,885
Mar-22 8,270 8,432 8,270 8,404 8,282 8,364 82 6,332 21,309
May-22 8,122 8,224 8,078 8,206 8,098 8,174 76 1,526 5,470
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jul 13
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL July Jul 14, 2021 147 Jul 12, 2021
ROUGH RICE July Jul 14, 2021 12 Jul 12, 2021
WHEAT July Jul 14, 2021 20 Jun 30, 2021

DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand Report
WASHINGTON–The following are key numbers from USDA’s crop report
and how the government’s estimates compared to analysts’ forecasts in a
Wall Street Journal survey.
U.S. 2021 Production, Yield (million bushels, bushels per acre)
Monday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA June
Corn Production 15,165 15,007 14,182-15,168 14,990
Soybean Production 4,405 4,374 4,135-4,405 4,405
Monday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA June
Corn Yield 179.5 * 178.0 172.0-179.5 179.5
Soybean Yield 50.8 ** 50.6 50.0-50.8 50.8
***
U.S. Stockpiles (million bushels)
2020-21
Monday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA June
Corn 1,082 1,091 957-1,211 1,107
Soybeans 135 136 115-149 135
Wheat 844 845 843-852 852
2021-22
Monday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA June
Corn 1,432 1,309 1,057-1,540 1,357
Soybeans 155 140 102-165 155
Wheat 665 711 573-809 770
***
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2020-21
Monday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA June
Corn 279.9 278.4 274.0-284.0 280.6
Soybeans 91.5 87.6 86.7- 88.7 88.0
Wheat 290.2 293.5 292.8-295.0 293.5
2021-22
Monday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA June
Corn 291.2 287.0 278.6-291.7 289.4
Soybeans 94.5 92.3 90.5- 93.5 92.6
Wheat 291.7 295.8 292.0-300.0 296.8
***
2021-22 Wheat Production (million bushels)
Monday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA June
All Wheat x,xxx 1,835 1,724-1,932 1,898
Winter Wheat 1,264 1,337 1,308-1,372 1,309
Hard Red Winter 805 792 762-826 771
Other Spring 345 446 358-537 N/A
Durum 37 52 40-65 N/A
2020-21 Brazil Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Monday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA June
Corn 93.0 91.5 87.9- 97.0 98.5
Soybeans 137.0 137.0 135.7-138.0 137.0
2020-21 Argentina Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Monday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA June
Corn 48.5 47.5 47.0-48.0 47.0
Soybeans 46.5 46.4 45.0-47.0 47.0

DJ USDA Supply/Demand: Crop Summary – Jul 12
U.S. ending stocks in million bushels, except soyoil in million pounds,
cotton in million (480 pound) bales and rice in million cwt. Exports and
Production in million metric tons except cotton in million (480 pound) bales.
Projections based on trends and analysts’ judgments, not survey
date. Source: USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board.
======U.S.====== ================WORLD=======================
Ending Stocks Exports Production
21/22 20/21 19/20: 21/22 20/21 19/20: 21/22 20/21 19/20
Soybeans 155.0 135.0 525.0:172.85 165.49 165.06:385.22 363.57 339.41
Brazil na na na: 93.00 83.00 92.14:144.00 137.00 128.50
Argentina na na na: 6.35 3.70 10.00: 52.00 46.50 48.80
China na na na: 0.10 0.10 0.09: 19.00 19.60 18.10
Soyoil 1,488 1,793 1,853: 12.80 12.53 12.31: 62.32 60.46 58.36
Corn 1,432 1,082 1,919:198.84 183.10 172.41: 1,195 1,121 1,118
China na na na: 0.02 0.02 0.01:268.00 260.67 260.78
Argentina na na na: 36.00 35.50 36.25: 51.00 48.50 51.00
S.Africa na na na: 3.20 3.20 2.55: 17.00 17.00 15.84
Cotton(a) 3.30 3.15 7.25: 45.92 48.00 41.44:119.39 112.56 121.42
All Wheat 665 844 1,028:203.99 201.42 194.97:792.40 775.82 763.49
China na na na: 1.00 0.80 1.05:136.00 134.25 133.59
European
Union na na na: 34.00 30.75 39.77:138.20 125.94 138.74
Canada na na na: 23.00 27.50 24.63: 31.50 35.18 32.67
Argentina na na na: 13.50 10.50 13.50: 20.50 17.63 19.78
Australia na na na: 20.50 23.00 9.14: 28.50 33.00 14.48
Russia na na na: 40.00 38.50 34.49: 85.00 85.35 73.61
Ukraine na na na: 21.00 16.75 21.01: 30.00 25.42 29.17
Sorghum 17.0 13.0 30.0: na na na: na na na
Barley 57.0 72.0 80.0: na na na: na na na
Oats 25.0 38.0 37.0: na na na: na na na
Rice 41.3 45.9 28.7: 47.12 49.06 43.38:506.04 504.94 497.74

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Jul 12
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND WEIGHED
THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT. NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS,
COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING JUL 8, 2021
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 07/8/2021 07/1/2021 07/9/2020 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 744 0 1,919 367
CORN 993,974 1,236,243 917,968 59,146,024 35,297,236
FLAXSEED 0 0 24 0 317
MIXED 24 0 0 24 0
OATS 0 100 0 100 400
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 73,294 4,349 71,755 6,556,602 4,141,859
SOYBEANS 200,933 208,136 483,429 57,655,465 37,866,691
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 240 0
WHEAT 424,327 361,811 659,727 2,323,828 3,074,575
Total 1,692,552 1,811,383 2,132,903 125,684,202 80,381,445
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

Crop Progress
Date 11-Jul 4-Jul 2020 Avg
Cotton Squaring 55 42 61 61
Cotton Setting Bolls 16 11 17 20
Corn Silking 26 10 26 30
Corn Dough 3 3 3
Soybeans Blooming 46 29 46 40
Soybreans Setting Pods 10 3 10 10
Sorghum Headed 29 22 27 28
Sorghum Coloring 15 14 15 16
Rice Headed 21 14 23 25
Peanuts Pegging 63 48 64 64
Oats Headed 94 88 92 91
Oats Harvested 11 11 12
Winter Wheat Harvested 59 45 66 65
Spring Wheat Headed 83 69 73 81
Barley Headed 78 59 73 78

Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 1 8 35 44 12
Cotton Last Week 1 9 38 44 8
Cotton Last Year 4 22 30 36 8

Corn This Week 2 6 27 51 14
Corn Last Week 2 7 27 50 14
Corn Last Year 2 6 23 52 17

Soybeans This Week 3 8 30 49 10
Soybeans Last Week 3 8 30 49 10
Soybeans Last Year 2 5 25 54 14

Spring Wheat This Week 21 34 29 15 1
Spring Wheat Last Week 18 32 34 14 2
Spring Wheat Last Year 2 6 24 57 11

Rice This Week 1 4 24 55 16
Rice Last Week 1 3 23 57 16
Rice Last Year 0 2 24 55 18

Oats This Week 11 21 33 30 5
Oats Last Week 9 21 36 29 5
Oats Last Year 2 8 29 50 11

Barley This Week 16 27 33 20 4
Barley Last Week 13 26 39 15 7
Barley Last Year 1 4 26 46 23

Sorghum This Week 1 4 25 57 13
Sorghum Last Week 1 3 24 58 14
Sorghum Last Year 3 13 38 39 7

Peanuts This Week 0 2 25 63 10
Peanuts Last Week 0 2 29 61 8
Peanuts Last Year 1 6 20 65 8

Pasture and Range This Week 19 20 27 26 8
Pasture and Range Last Week 20 22 27 25 6
Pasture and Range Last Year 11 19 34 31 5

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were higher and Minneapolis Spring Wheat was sharply higher in reaction to the USDA WASDE estimates. USDA showed sharply lower Spring Wheat production and much lower ending stocks estimates for All Wheat. The report was bullish due to these changes as the market had expected a much smaller reduction in Spring Wheat production. White Winter Wheat production is also being hurt as both have been impacted by drought and heat this year. Yield reports have generally been good in Winter Wheat areas but there have been mixed results reported in some Great Plains states. Quality has been generally average.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal. Northern areas should see mostly isolated showers. Temperatures will be near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 621, 610, and 594 September, with resistance at 645, 648, and 658 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 625, 651, and 681 September. Support is at 595, 578, and 568 September, with resistance at 618, 638, and 655 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 858 and 899 September. Support is at 822, 817, and 796 September, and resistance is at 860, 864, and 870 September.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed a little higher yesterday despite bearish estimates from the USDA WASDE reports. USDA increased carry in for the new crop by a lot and also cut demand. It cut yield estimates for this growing season and also reduced planted and harvested acreage. The cuts to demand and supply were not enough to overcome the increased carry in and ending stocks were up. The report was as expected but offered no big reason to buy, but the selling was very limited in response so futures drifted higher. Growing conditions have been mixed at best with many areas getting too much rain. Rice areas have generally been wet. Louisiana and parts of Mississippi were saturated and are still reported to be wetter than desired for strong production and good quality. Some big storms are in the forecast for the rest of the week. Warm temperatures are reported in Arkansas and Missouri and the crop progress is improving. However, it is still very wet in Arkansas and farmer progress has been limited for the last couple of weeks. Texas has been wet.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1275, 1256, and 1250 September, with resistance at 1298, 1311, and 1331 September.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn was higher in response to the WASDE estimates. It is generally cool with showers around in the Midwest. USDA adjusted the new crop production estimates higher due to increased acreage but left yields unchanged. Export and residual demand was increased but not enough to offset the increased production potential. Ending stocks were also higher but were left tight overall. USDA lowered the Brazil Corn production estimate to 93 million tons but ideas are that USDA still has a ways to go to fully account for the loss. Weather forecasts now call for cooler temperatures and generous rains in the Midwest, including in the very dry northwest parts of the belt. However, the northwest will stay generally too dry. It will not be as hot in the Great Plains and western Midwest as it has been. Pollination is coming and it looks like pollination will happen under good conditions. Oats were higher. Canadian Oats areas look to get some rain in the next couple of weeks, but US areas showed mixed conditions in the weekly USDA updates. Longer range forecasts released by NWS call for warmer and drier weather for many important US growing areas this Summer.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 521, 516, and 505 September, and resistance is at 550, 555, and 570 September. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 410 September. Support is at 392, 389, and 384 September, and resistance is at 406, 409, and 412 September.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher in reaction to the USDA WASDE reports. USDA made some small changes to the demand for the current marketing year and also modified production to fit the reduced demand. It made no changes to the new crop supply or demand estimates. The market had expected increased production and ending stocks. Soybeans held the weekly trading range last week and closed in the middle of the range. There are many areas that do not have good Soybeans in the US. Soybeans conditions in central production area are often too wet and have suffered. The weather forecasts changed to wetter and cooler and the crop needs dry conditions and some heat . Minnesota and northern Iowa and the Dakotas have been very hot and dry but should get very beneficial rain. Forecasts call for cooler weather this week in the Midwest and northern Great Plains, and it should generally be wet. China has started with new US Soybeans purchases for Fall delivery. The longer range forecasts from NWS call for warmer and drier than normal conditions for most Soybeans areas of the US.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1456, 1471, and 1530 August. Support is at 1382, 1334, and 12316 August, and resistance is at 1418, 1438, and 1460 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 351.00, 347.00, and 341.00 August, and resistance is at 367.00, 375.00, and 379.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 6590, 6700, and 7090 August. Support is at 6180, 5940, and 5900 August, with resistance at 6560, 6590, and 6800 August.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were sharply higher Friday on a lower Ringgit and in sympathy with Chicago. Futures were higher for the week. Palm Oil was lower today on increased monthly stocks totals by MPOB. Trends are mixed on the daily charts but are starting to turn up. The private surveyors showed more demand for last month in reports issued last week and ideas are that the stronger demand can continue as India has cut its import taxes. Canola closed sharply higher to limit up in sympathy with Chicago and on weather concerns. Some showers are in the forecast for the Prairies this week and it remains generally dry. The showers have a chance to be very beneficial as the Prairies crops are in big trouble now due to previous hot and dry weather. Demand has improved a little bit with the recently weaker prices.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 889.00 and 961.00 November. Support is at 856.00, 844.00, and 836.00 November, with resistance at 892.00, 898.00, and 904.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 3890 and 3960 September. Support is at 3810, 3700, and 3680 September, with resistance at 3980, 4000, and 4100 September.

DJ Malaysia July 1-10 Palm Oil Exports Down 1.0%, SGS Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the July 1-10 period are estimated down 1.0% on month at 406,897 metric tons, cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. said Monday.
The following are the major items in the SGS estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
July 1-10 June 1-10
RBD Palm Olein 152,664 90,200
RBD Palm Oil 41,713 9,960
RBD Palm Stearin 40,020 43,100
Crude Palm Oil 54,935 102,625
Total* 406,897 411,044
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included
SGS Malaysia is a division of the Switzerland-based Societe Generale de Surveillance Group.

DJ Malaysia’s June Palm Oil Exports 1.42M Tons; Up 12%, MPOB Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports were up 12% on month at 1.42 million metric tons in June, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said.
The following are details of the June crop data and revised numbers for May, issued by MPOB:
June May Change
On Month
Crude Palm Oil Output 1,606,187 1,571,525 Up 2.21%
Palm Oil Exports 1,418,825 1,268,659 Up 11.84%
Palm Kernel Oil Exports 76,327 71,330 Up 7.01%
Palm Oil Imports 113,126 89,014 Up 27.09%
Closing Stocks 1,613,657 1,569,411 Up 2.82%
Crude Palm Oil 798,478 841,312 Dn 5.09%
Processed Palm Oil 815,179 728,099 Up 11.96%

Midwest Weather Forecast: Isolated showers north and west, showers and storms south and east. Temperatures should average near normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June July May May May
July July July July
August July July July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jul 9
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures for July 9, 2021.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 904.00 90.00 Nov 21 up 23.10
Basis: Thunder Bay 884.00 40.00 Nov 21 up 30.00
Basis: Vancouver 14.00 70.00 Nov 21 up 30.00
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – July 13
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 1052.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Aug 1037.50 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Sept 1022.50 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 967.50 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 932.50 +20.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 1055.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Aug 1040.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Sept 1025.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 970.00 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 935.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 1025.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 990.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 4,120.00 +70.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 298.00 +01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.19)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jul 13
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 201,635 lots, or 12.01 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-21 – – – 5,907 5,907 5,907 0 0 30
Sep-21 5,959 5,996 5,908 5,944 5,938 5,950 12 152,941 95,175
Nov-21 5,962 6,021 5,929 5,959 5,967 5,969 2 28,457 72,987
Jan-22 5,986 6,009 5,940 5,966 5,968 5,976 8 6,597 16,843
Mar-22 6,012 6,012 5,936 5,961 5,958 5,965 7 13,201 15,216
May-22 5,979 6,010 5,955 5,982 5,977 5,985 8 439 1,224
Corn
Turnover: 907,695 lots, or 23.42 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-21 – – – 2,785 2,785 2,785 0 0 0
Sep-21 2,565 2,601 2,557 2,595 2,562 2,579 17 669,104 618,899
Nov-21 2,552 2,592 2,550 2,584 2,556 2,572 16 77,825 249,212
Jan-22 2,558 2,601 2,558 2,591 2,567 2,584 17 108,642 242,468
Mar-22 2,567 2,601 2,561 2,591 2,574 2,582 8 46,741 51,433
May-22 2,588 2,622 2,584 2,617 2,598 2,605 7 5,383 15,089
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,193,774 lots, or 42.81 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-21 3,568 3,569 3,568 3,569 3,524 3,568 44 6 722
Aug-21 3,590 3,636 3,585 3,620 3,598 3,600 2 20 770
Sep-21 3,590 3,633 3,582 3,613 3,583 3,607 24 786,589 1,093,692
Nov-21 3,620 3,650 3,601 3,631 3,599 3,625 26 69,390 60,921
Dec-21 3,585 3,623 3,578 3,606 3,566 3,603 37 17,982 36,358
Jan-22 3,559 3,598 3,549 3,578 3,542 3,572 30 238,076 585,119
Mar-22 3,397 3,435 3,390 3,417 3,378 3,412 34 48,527 292,081
May-22 3,318 3,350 3,314 3,336 3,307 3,331 24 33,184 81,207
Palm Oil
Turnover: 857,398 lots, or 6.65 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-21 – – – 7,998 7,998 7,998 0 0 6
Aug-21 8,040 8,040 8,040 8,040 8,040 8,040 0 70 19
Sep-21 7,746 7,898 7,744 7,802 7,834 7,810 -24 727,366 414,074
Oct-21 7,604 7,720 7,568 7,632 7,630 7,632 2 18,324 38,694
Nov-21 7,520 7,628 7,490 7,570 7,542 7,548 6 6,051 41,490
Dec-21 7,424 7,548 7,408 7,498 7,424 7,468 44 6,625 57,937
Jan-22 7,332 7,468 7,308 7,424 7,348 7,400 52 85,598 96,495
Feb-22 7,260 7,428 7,260 7,386 7,280 7,356 76 4,284 7,378
Mar-22 7,288 7,400 7,254 7,362 7,266 7,334 68 4,632 4,143
Apr-22 7,250 7,382 7,250 7,336 7,256 7,320 64 3,034 3,266
May-22 7,200 7,324 7,194 7,260 7,234 7,268 34 1,401 4,450
Jun-22 7,246 7,276 7,194 7,194 7,230 7,228 -2 13 20
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 864,001 lots, or 75.12 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-21 – – – 8,940 8,940 8,940 0 0 224
Aug-21 8,790 8,800 8,752 8,762 8,732 8,768 36 6 146
Sep-21 8,636 8,790 8,632 8,772 8,670 8,726 56 722,578 414,537
Nov-21 8,546 8,702 8,546 8,684 8,584 8,642 58 29,960 56,810
Dec-21 8,488 8,632 8,488 8,620 8,488 8,566 78 12,956 77,319
Jan-22 8,412 8,566 8,402 8,548 8,424 8,500 76 90,643 173,885
Mar-22 8,270 8,432 8,270 8,404 8,282 8,364 82 6,332 21,309
May-22 8,122 8,224 8,078 8,206 8,098 8,174 76 1,526 5,470
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322