Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
Wheat: Winter Wheat markets were lower on Friday, but still closed higher for the week, as the Winter Wheat harvest continues. Yield reports have generally been good. Trends are mixed on the daily charts for the Winter Wheat markets. Minneapolis Spring What closed much higher last week ad trends are up in this market. Dry weather is still forecast for Spring Wheat areas, but it will turn cooler. The dry and hot weather seen to date have produced very low crop condition ratings and conditions are not expected to improve much if at all this week. Winter Wheat yield reports are strong, so the supply will likely be good once the harvest is complete. There have been some rains in the region to keep the harvest pressure on the slow side but the quality seems good. However, the Spring Wheat situation is different and a short crop is increasingly likely.
Weekly Chicago Soft Red Winter Wheat Futures
Weekly Chicago Hard Red Winter Wheat Futures
Weekly Minneapolis Hard Red Spring Wheat Futures
Corn: Corn was lower on Friday but higher for the week in response to the USDA planted area and quarterly stocks estimates. Both reports were bullish for prices as producers planted less area to Corn than expected and as the quarterly stocks were less than expected. Futures gave back some of the gains as more moderate weather is expected in major growing areas. The forecasts are dry for the northwest and wet for central and eastern areas. It will not be as hot in the Great Plains and west4ern Midwest as it has been. Reports of damaging cold weather in Brazil also supported the market and many US places got too much rain and others not nearly enough in the last week. Temperatures got close to or just below freezing in parts of southern Brazil and on into Paraguay. There are ideas of losses to Corn in these areas, and some ideas are that the losses could be extensive in affected areas. Oats were higher. Canadian Oats areas look to be dry in the near term. Longer range forecasts released by NWS call for warmer and drier weather for many important US growing areas this Summer.
Weekly Corn Futures
Weekly Oats Futures
Soybeans and Soybean Meal: Soybeans and the products closed firm on the weekly charts. The highs were made early in the day and then some long liquidation and perhaps new selling hit the pits,, but futures were able to recover to close higher. Reports of big rains in much of the Midwest and forecasts for more rains in the coming week were negative, but some areas are now getting too much rain. Minnesota and northern Iowa and the Dakotas should get very little, if any, rain. Forecasts call for cooler weather this week in the Midwest and northern Great Plains, but it should generally be dry. China has started with new US Soybeans purchases for Fall delivery. The longer range forecasts from NWS call for warmer and drier than normal conditions for most Soybeans areas of the US.
Weekly Chicago Soybeans Futures
Weekly Chicago Soybean Meal Futures
Rice: Rice closed lower as long liquidation and perhaps some new selling hit the market on Friday. It was a slow trading day but trends turned down on the daily charts. The plantings report showed more planted area than the industry had expected and is not generally believed in the cash market. The industry thinks that planted area is lower and perhaps much lower. The stocks report showed that there is still a lot of Rice out there and more than some in the trade had hoped for. Growing conditions have been mixed at best with many areas getting too much rain. Rice areas have generally been wet and northern areas have been cool. Louisiana and parts of Mississippi were saturated and are still reported to be wetter than desired for strong production and good quality. Some big storms are in the forecast for the rest of the week. Warm temperatures are reported in Arkansas and Missouri and the crop progress is improving. However, it is still very wet in Arkansas and farmer progress has been limited for the last couple of weeks. Texas has been wet. World prices \were mostly a little lower last week.
Weekly Chicago Rice Futures
Palm Oil and Vegetable Oils: Palm Oil futures were higher Friday and higher for the week. Trends are up on both the daily and the weekly charts. The private surveyors showed more demand for last month in reports issued last week and ideas are that the stronger demand can continue as India has cut its import taxes. Canola closed higher on weather concerns and on tight current supplies. Some showers, but a lot of dry weather, is in the forecast for the Prairies this week and it remains generally dry. Demand has improved a little bit with the recently weaker prices. Soybean Oil was higher for the week on ideas of strong bio fuels demand. The demand should hold as the government is not expected to issue refinery waivers from bio fuels requirements at this time
Weekly Malaysian Palm Oil Futures
Weekly Chicago Soybean Oil Futures
Weekly Canola Futures
Cotton: Futures were a little lower last week but held inside the trading range on the weekly charts. Ideas that crops in the Delta were hurt by the recent tropical storm that passed through the region provided the best support. Another tropical system is coming to the Gulf of Mexico but to the east side and the Southeast is threatened with big rains and perhaps some wind this week. Cotton growing conditions have improved in the last couple of weeks with rains reported in West Texas and less rain the Delta. Texas should get some showers this week. Some scattered showers are in the forecast in the Delta and Southeast. Production ideas are being impacted in just about all areas due to the weather extremes.
Weekly US Cotton Futures
Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice and Citrus: FCOJ closed higher again Friday and higher for the week on follow through buying. Chart trends are turning up on the daily charts and are no worse than sideways on the weekly charts. There are some tropical storms in the Atlantic and one is likely to move into Florida. Elsa is currently near the Windward Islands and could pass over Cuba and then into Florida, but there are not likely to be damaging winds from the system. The state could get excessive rainfall. A big storm could threaten trees and fruit. Brazil is reported to be in good condition, but dry. It has been cold but any damage is called minor. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production. Northern and western Mexico are getting some rains.
Weekly FCOJ Futures
Coffee: New York closed lower last week after reports of cold weather in Brazil that did little damage to Coffee. Temperatures are now warmer and there are no forecasts for damaging cold for a while. The move in New York comes as the Brazil crop is coming to the market. London held better and it looks like demand is moderate for Robusta these days. The offers are starting to increase as the Arabica harvest is expanding in Brazil. Good conditions are reported in northern South America and good conditions reported in Central America. Colombia is having trouble exporting Coffee right now due to protests inside the country. Conditions are reported to be generally good in Asia and Africa although Southeast Asia is turning drier.
Weekly New York Arabica Coffee Futures
Weekly London Robusta Coffee Futures
Sugar: New York and London were higher as Brazil was cold last week. It was cold enough to damage Sugarcane crops in the central south of Brazil. Warmer temperatures are reported now. Mills were also processing for more Ethanol and less for Sugar than expected. London has been the leader to the downside on ample supplies of White Sugar available to the market. There is plenty of White Sugar available in India for the market and monsoon rains are promoting good conditions for the next crop. Thailand is expecting improved production. Sugar demand is said to be weak. Ethanol demand is returning to the market as more world economies open up after the pandemic. \
Weekly New York World Raw Sugar Futures
Weekly London White Sugar Futures
Cocoa: New York and London closed lower in range trading. The daily charts show down trends in New York, but still show mixed trends in London. The weekly charts show that both markets are trading near the low end of the recent trading ranges. Ports in West Africa are filled with Cocoa right now as demand remains lackluster. The weather has had above average rains in West Africa and crop conditions are rated good. European demand has been slow and demand ideas in general are weak. The supplies are there for any increased demand.
Weekly New York Cocoa Futures
Weekly London Cocoa Futures
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322