About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Futures were higher on Friday and for the week on weather concerns and on ideas of increasing demand. News of another tropical system moving through the Southeast helped support futures prices. Elsa went up the East Coast and the Southeast was threatened with big rains and perhaps some wind. The wind turned out to be a non event but there as a lot of rain in parts of the region. Most affected Cotton areas were in Georgia and the Carolinas. Cotton growing conditions have improved with rains reported in West Texas and less rain the Delta. Texas should get some showers this week. Some scattered showers are in the forecast in the Delta and Southeast. Production ideas are being impacted in just about all areas due to the weather extremes. Demand was increased in the weekly export sales report and is expected to stay strong as the world economy rebounds from the Covid times.
Overnight News: The Delta will get scattered showers and near to below normal temperatures and Southeast will get scattered showers and near to below normal temperatures. Texas will have scattered showers and below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 83.88 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 117,565 bales, from 119,910 bales yesterday. ICE said that 2 notices were posted for July delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 117 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 8630, 8590, and 8470 December, with resistance of 8790, 8830 and 8930 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 06, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 268,855
: Positions :
: 59,795 8,260 52,671 46,487 191,165 93,455 9,656 252,408 261,751: 16,448 7,104
: Changes from: June 29, 2021 (Change in open interest: 5,684) :
: -1,082 2,557 1,639 1,574 1,950 3,792 -154 5,922 5,992: -239 -308
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 22.2 3.1 19.6 17.3 71.1 34.8 3.6 93.9 97.4: 6.1 2.6
: Total Traders: 278 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 112 40 86 53 58 47 20 249 175:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ On-Call Cotton – Jul 8
As of Jul 2. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or
purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts
of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.
Source: CFTC
*-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from
last week.
Call Previous Change Call Previous Change
Sales Purchases
Jul 21 0 80 -80 0 0 0
Oct 21 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 21 52,812 52,801 11 23,696 24,219 -523
Mar 22 24,464 23,559 905 5,803 5,795 8
May 22 11,028 10,703 325 1,083 1,017 66
Jul 22 27,260 26,135 1,125 3,752 3,598 154
Oct 22 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 22 7,254 7,459 -205 10,421 10,103 318
Mar 23 1,412 1,412 0 246 246 0
May 23 18 18 0 0 0 0
Jul 23 18 18 0 0 0 0
Dec 23 40 40 0 659 659 0
Jul 24 0 0 0 220 220 0
Dec 24 0 0 0 220 220 0
Total 124,306 122,225 2,081 46,100 46,077 23
Open Open Change
Int Int
Jul 21 2 5 -3
Oct 21 280 280 0
Dec 21 148,366 144,579 3,787
Mar 22 39,551 36,632 2,919
May 22 7,181 7,317 -136
Jul 22 10,319 9,812 507
Oct 22 2 0 2
Dec 22 13,016 12,267 749
Mar 23 204 182 22
May 23 3 3 0
Jul 23 3 3 0
Dec 23 3 3 0
Jul 24 0 0 0
Dec 24 0 0 0
Total 218,930 211,083 7,847

WASDE Trade Estimates from Bloomberg News:
2021-22: Avg Low High June Avg vs Prior
US Production 17.29 16.60 18.50 17.00 0.288
US Exports 14.89 14.50 15.50 14.80 0.090
US End Stocks 3.04 1.95 4.50 2.90 0.140
World Production 119.30 117.90 121.50 118.87 0.432
World Consumption 122.49 122.00 123.00 122.54 -0.048
World End Stocks 89.86 88.40 91.97 89.30 0.559

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher in very quiet trading as a tropical system passed very close to the west coast of Florida but did no damage to Citrus. Elsa passed by Florida yesterday, but there were no damaging winds from the system. The state got excessive rainfall in some areas, but mostly away from Citrus areas. A big storm could threaten trees and fruit. Brazil is reported to be in good condition, but dry. It has been cold but any damage is called minor. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production. Northern and western Mexico areas are getting some rains and conditions are rated mostly good. Some areas have had too much rain.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers with heavy amounts today. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 131.00 September. Support is at 122.00, 121.00, and 120.00 September, with resistance at 128.00, 130.00, and 132.00 September.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 6, 2021
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 13,049 :
: Positions :
: 3,475 8,770 1,755 77 11 2,151 806 115 1,761 812 1,382 :
: Changes from: June 29, 2021 :
: -185 115 -20 0 11 80 -5 -10 264 38 176 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 26.6 67.2 13.4 0.6 0.1 16.5 6.2 0.9 13.5 6.2 10.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 71 :
: 15 11 5 . . 10 7 . 20 8 7 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London were both lower to start the week as cold air in Brazil produced little damage to Coffee areas. New York stayed weaker but closed higher Friday on what appeared to be some speculative buying tied to dry weather in Southeast Asia. Temperatures are now warmer in Brazil and there are no forecasts for damaging cold for a while. Asian Coffee areas are dry, especially in Southeast Asia, but increasing showers are in the forecast for this week and tree condition should be improved. The move in New York comes as the Brazil crop is coming to the market. The offers are starting to increase as the Arabica harvest is expanding in Brazil. The Robusta harvest is active in Brazil as well. Good conditions are reported in northern South America and good conditions reported in Central America. Colombia is having trouble exporting Coffee due to protests inside the country. Conditions are reported to be generally good in Asia and Africa.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 2.169 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 139.98 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE said that 0 contracts were posted for delivery today against NY July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 434 contracts.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 06, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 348,031
: Positions :
: 51,103 27,738 97,893 95,902 197,948 90,696 16,849 335,594 340,428: 12,437 7,603
: Changes from: June 29, 2021 (Change in open interest: 6,694) :
: -4,971 3,179 2,999 6,455 -1,619 2,366 1,302 6,849 5,861: -155 833
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.7 8.0 28.1 27.6 56.9 26.1 4.8 96.4 97.8: 3.6 2.2
: Total Traders: 457 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 177 72 138 124 125 44 22 410 305:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 07/06/2021
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
137,027 42,640 85,019 9,490 8,640 3,048
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 31.1% 62.0% 6.9% 6.3% 2.2%
Number of Traders in Each Category
155 44 44 9 7 9
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
34,776 3,624 10,832 9,042 2,315 21,893
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
25.4% 2.6% 7.9% 6.6% 1.7% 16.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
45 6 18 18 10 24
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,306 1,656
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
3.9% 1.2%

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 147.00, 146.00, and 143.00 September, and resistance is at 155.00, 158.00 and 160.00 September. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1800 and 1880 September. Support is at 1710, 1690, and 1660 September, and resistance is at 1760, 1790, and 1820 September.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London were lower again last week as Brazil temperatures have moderated. It was cold enough to damage Sugarcane crops in the central south of Brazil during the cold snap seen the previous week, but ideas are that most of the crop survived and is in good condition. Warmer temperatures are reported now. Mills were also processing for more Ethanol and less for Sugar than expected and this trend should continue with higher world petroleum prices. London has been the leader to the downside on ample supplies of White Sugar available to the market. There is plenty of White Sugar available in India for the market and monsoon rains are promoting good conditions for the next crop. Thailand is expecting improved production. Sugar demand is said to be weak. Ethanol demand is returning to the market as more world economies open up after the pandemic.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1710 and 1540 October. Support is at 1700, 1690, and 1670 October, and resistance is at 1760, 1790, and 1820 October. Trends in London are down with objectives of 438.00 October. Support is at 450.00, 445.00, and 440.00 October, and resistance is at 470.00, 477.00, and 482.00 October.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 06, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,093,942
: Positions :
: 202,918 35,063 215,463 289,664 735,383 295,598 72,753 1,003,642 1,058,662: 90,300 35,280
: Changes from: June 29, 2021 (Change in open interest: 48,648) :
: 17,461 -2,185 17,605 4,238 42,394 5,044 -655 44,348 57,158: 4,300 -8,510
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 18.5 3.2 19.7 26.5 67.2 27.0 6.7 91.7 96.8: 8.3 3.2
: Total Traders: 250 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 90 23 70 82 80 40 19 233 173:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 07/06/2021
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
81,484 39,716 65,478 8,594 2,813 2,941
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 48.7% 80.4% 10.5% 3.5% 3.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
103 36 37 9 6 8
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
16,925 2,078 3,954 1,479 169 1,652
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
20.8% 2.6% 4.9% 1.8% 0.2% 2.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
21 6 11 6 4 11
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
6,223 2,399
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
7.6% 2.9%

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed lower last week on follow through selling. The daily charts show down trends in New York and in London. Ports in West Africa are filled with Cocoa right now as demand remains lackluster. The weather has had above average rains in West Africa and crop conditions are rated good. European demand has been slow and demand ideas in general are weak. The supplies are there for any increased demand. The next round of quarterly grind data will be released this week and the data should show a significant increase in demand.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.778 million bags. ICE said that 0 contracts were posted for July delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 269 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2220 September. Support is at 2300, 2270, and 2240 September, with resistance at 2340, 2370, and 2410 September. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1550 September. Support is at 1590, 1570, and 1540 September, with resistance at 1620, 1640, and 1650 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 06, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 268,986
: Positions :
: 29,050 50,929 64,145 112,375 118,545 50,887 24,881 256,458 258,500: 12,528 10,486
: Changes from: June 29, 2021 (Change in open interest: 10,122) :
: 251 8,390 484 9,696 -6,440 -19 6,583 10,411 9,017: -289 1,105
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.8 18.9 23.8 41.8 44.1 18.9 9.2 95.3 96.1: 4.7 3.9
: Total Traders: 236 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 67 72 65 52 36 33 17 191 157:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 07/06/2021
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
277,368 190,839 176,747 29,954 22,488 10,590
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 68.8% 63.7% 10.8% 8.1% 3.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
127 47 36 13 6 11
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
7,476 30,786 10,442 4,060 680 22,173
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
2.7% 11.1% 3.8% 1.5% 0.2% 8.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
10 25 6 11 9 18
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
1,834 3,462
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
0.7% 1.2%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322