About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. July Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
NEW YORK–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for U.S. ending stockpiles for 2020-21 and 2021-22, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Monday at noon ET.
U.S. Stockpiles (millions)
2020-21
Average Range USDA June
Corn 1,091 957-1,211 1,107
Soybeans 136 115-149 135
Wheat 845 843-852 852
2021-22
Average Range USDA June
Corn 1,309 1,057-1,540 1,357
Soybeans 140 102-165 155
Wheat 711 573-809 770
2020-21 2021-22
Corn Soybeans Wheat Corn Soybeans Wheat
AgriSompo North America 1,107 135 852 1,525 155 735
Allendale 1,087 149 844 1,244 145 809
DC Analysis 1,007 135 1,100 155 650
Doane 1,034 140 844 1,200 120 700
EDF Man 1,107 145 844 1,534 165 664
Futures International 1,156 140 1,483 161 749
Grain Cycles 1,132 145 1,424 165
Linn Group 1,211 134 1,076 102 796
Sid Love Consulting 1,107 135 843 1,408 155 768
Midland Research 1,082 135 844 1,197 120 728
RJ O’Brien 1,071 147 1,194 126 765
StoneX 1,136 133 844 1,245 114 573
US Commodities 957 130 845 1,057 120 575
Vantage RM 1,107 135 852 1,540 160 780
Western Milling 1,057 115 844 1,285 135 652
Zaner Ag Hedge 1,092 125 844 1,432 142 720

DJ July World Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
NEW YORK–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for world grain and soybean ending stockpiles for 2020-21 and 2021-22, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Monday at noon ET.
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2020-21
Average Range USDA June
Corn 278.4 274.0-284.0 280.6
Soybeans 87.6 86.7-88.7 88.0
Wheat 293.5 292.8-295.0 293.5
2021-22
Average Range USDA June
Corn 287.0 278.6-291.7 289.4
Soybeans 92.3 90.5-93.5 92.6
Wheat 295.8 292.0-300.0 296.8
2020-21 2021-22
Corn Soybeans Wheat Corn Soybeans Wheat
Allendale 278.6 88.7 292.8 286.0 92.4 294.5
EDF Man 284.0 87.0 295.0 291.0 93.5 299.0
Futures International 287.0 93.4 292.0
Linn Group 284.5 91.3 298.8
StoneX 277.0 86.7 293.0 278.6 90.5 292.3
US Commodities 289.4 92.6 296.8
Western Milling 274.0 88.0 293.5 288.0 93.0 300.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 278.2 87.4 293.1 291.7 92.0 293.4

DJ July Brazil, Argentina Corn, Soybean Production Estimates – Survey
NEW YORK–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for Brazil and Argentina corn and soybean production for 2020-21, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates on Monday at noon ET.
Brazil Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA June
Corn 91.5 87.9-97.0 98.5
Soybeans 137.0 135.7-138.0 137.0
Corn Soybeans
Allendale 93.5 137.0
DC Analysis 90.0 137.0
Doane 90.0 137.0
EDF Man 95.0 137.0
Futures International 94.0 137.0
Linn Group 88.5 137.0
Midland Research 92.0 137.0
StoneX 87.9 135.7
US Commodities 89.0 138.0
Western Milling 90.0 137.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 97.0 137.0
Argentina Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA June
Corn 47.5 47.0-48.0 47.0
Soybeans 46.4 45.0-47.0 47.0

Corn Soybeans
Allendale 47.0 45.0
DC Analysis 48.0 46.0
Doane 47.0 47.0
EDF Man 48.0 46.0
Futures International 47.0 47.0
Linn Group 48.0 47.0
Midland Research 48.0 47.0
StoneX 47.5 45.0
US Commodities 47.5 46.5
Western Milling 47.0 47.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 47.0 47.0

DJ U.S. Wheat Production Estimates — Survey
NEW YORK–The following are analysts’ estimates for 2021-22 U.S. wheat production, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated production forecasts at noon on Monday.
2021-22 Wheat Production
Average Range USDA June USDA 2020-21
All Wheat 1,835 1,724-1,932 1,898 1,826
Winter Wheat 1,337 1,308-1,372 1,309 1,171
Hard Red Winter 792 762-826 771 659
Soft Red Winter 344 325-357 335 266
White Winter 201 180-246 202 246
Other Spring 446 358-537 N/A 586
Durum 52 40-65 N/A 69
All Winter Other
Wheat Wheat Hard-Red Soft-Red White Spring Durum
Allendale 1,917 1,333 762 325 246 517 65
DC Analysis 1,800 1,342 797 350 195 408 50
Doane 1,836 1,360 807 350 203 424 52
EDF Man 1,775 1,310 775 340 195 415 50
Futures International 1,850 1,372 795 357 220 434 44
Linn Group 1,932 1,335 796 345 194 537 60
Sid Love Consulting 1,905 1,318 790 340 188 537 50
Midland Research 1,864 1,357 826 341 190 455 52
RJ O’Brien 1,818 1,354 812 348 194 424 40
StoneX 1,724 1,308 777 333 198 358 58
Western Milling 1,770 1,320 790 350 180 400 50
Zaner Ag Hedge 1,829 1,334 778 345 210 440 56

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Jul 9
For the week ended Jul 1, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 290.8 0.0 6690.9 7490.2 5144.1 0.0
hrw 100.8 0.0 2169.5 2833.4 1514.1 0.0
srw 11.9 0.0 1083.5 728.7 932.4 0.0
hrs 119.3 0.0 2034.9 2171.3 1609.8 0.0
white 53.6 0.0 1363.0 1446.6 1079.4 0.0
durum 5.3 0.0 40.0 310.2 8.4 0.0
corn 173.2 198.2 69720.2 42508.7 11034.3 15946.5
soybeans 63.8 118.5 61904.3 45774.0 3410.3 9397.9
soymeal 211.8 55.8 11450.5 11187.7 2329.9 911.8
soyoil -0.4 0.0 677.5 1218.2 21.2 0.6
upland cotton 52.1 177.0 16116.3 17036.7 2182.8 2604.1
pima cotton 5.4 0.0 827.7 577.2 107.7 4.1
sorghum 0.0 0.0 7230.1 4210.5 893.1 1594.9
barley 0.3 0.0 25.1 41.7 23.7 0.0
rice 19.9 -0.3 3345.4 3331.9 431.8 20.0

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jul 9
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
ROUGH RICE July Jul 12, 2021 49 Jul 08, 2021
KC HRW WHEAT July Jul 12, 2021 1 Jun 24, 2021

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were mixed yesterday and Minneapolis Spring Wheat was a little lower as the Winter Wheat harvest continues. Yield reports have generally been good in Winter Wheat areas. Minneapolis was lower despite forecasts of reduced rainfall for the Dakotas. Trends are mixed on the daily charts for the Winter Wheat markets. Winter Wheat yield reports are strong, so the supply will likely be good once the harvest is complete. There have been some rains in the region to keep the harvest pressure on the slow side but the quality seems good. However, the Spring Wheat situation is different and a short crop is increasingly likely. There are ideas that the coming rains will not help much as they are late. It will turn cooler but will heat up again after a week. The dry and hot weather seen to date have produced very low crop condition ratings and conditions are not expected to improve much if at all in coming weeks.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 586 and 524 September. Support is at 616, 610, and 594 September, with resistance at 638, 645, and 648 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 575 September. Support is at 578, 568, and 562 September, with resistance at 608, 613, and 628 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives f 762 and 698 September. Support is at 796, 779, and 757 September, and resistance is at 820, 827, and 835 September.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed lower again as the longs continue to liquidate due to good crop conditions and higher than expected USDA plantings estimates. The crop overall appears to be in good shape. Growing conditions have been mixed at best with many areas getting too much rain. Rice areas have generally been wet. Louisiana and parts of Mississippi were saturated and are still reported to be wetter than desired for strong production and good quality. Some big storms are in the forecast for the rest of the week. Warm temperatures are reported in Arkansas and Missouri and the crop progress is improving. However, it is still very wet in Arkansas and farmer progress has been limited for the last couple of weeks. Texas has been wet.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1272 and 1204 September. Support is at 1275, 1256, and 1250 September, with resistance at 1311, 1331, and 1340 September.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn was lower on follow through speculative selling. It is generally cool with showers around in the Midwest. Weather forecasts now call for cooler temperatures and generous rains in the Midwest, including in the very dry northwest parts of the belt. However, the northwest will stay generally too dry. It will not be as hot in the Great Plains and western Midwest as it has been. Pollination is coming and it looks like pollination will happen under good conditions. Reports of damaging cold weather in Brazil a week ago supported the market. Temperatures got close to or just below freezing in parts of southern Brazil and on into Paraguay. Temperatures are more moderate now. There are ideas of losses to Corn in these areas, and some ideas are that the losses could be extensive in affected areas. Oats were higher. Canadian Oats areas look to get some rain in the next couple of weeks, but US areas showed mixed conditions in the weekly USDA updates. Longer range forecasts released by NWS call for warmer and drier weather for many important US growing areas this Summer.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 528, 516, and 505 September, and resistance is at 570, 579, and 588 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 366, 362, and 358 September, and resistance is at 382, 384, and 392 September.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were generally lower in response to the weather forecasts calling for cool and wet conditions. July Soybeans managed to close a little higher on demand ideas. Soybeans conditions in central production area are often too wet and have suffered. The weather forecasts changed to wetter and cooler and the crop needs dry conditions and some heat . Minnesota and northern Iowa and the Dakotas should get very beneficial rain as these areas have been very dry and very warm. Forecasts call for cooler weather this week in the Midwest and northern Great Plains, and it should generally be wet. China has started with new US Soybeans purchases for Fall delivery. The longer range forecasts from NWS call for warmer and drier than normal conditions for most Soybeans areas of the US.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 228,600 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1334, 1316, and 1299 August, and resistance is at 1400, 1408, and 1418 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 355.00, 347.00, and 341.00 August, and resistance is at 367.00, 375.00, and 379.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5900, 5770, and 5460 August, with resistance at 6220, 6560, and 6590 August.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were sharply higher today on a lower Ringgit and in sympathy with Chicago. Trends are mixed on the daily charts. The private surveyors showed more demand for last month in reports issued last week and ideas are that the stronger demand can continue as India has cut its import taxes. Canola closed higher on rumors of export buying and on weather concerns. Some showers are in the forecast for the Prairies this week and it remains generally dry. The showers have a chance to be very beneficial as the Prairies crops are in big trouble now due to previous hot and dry weather. Demand has improved a little bit with the recently weaker prices.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 796.00, 762.00, and 757.00 November, with resistance at 836.00, 838.00, and 844.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 3700, 3680, and 3590 September, with resistance at 3840, 3880, and 3930 September.

DJ Canadian Grain Handling Summary
WINNIPEG–The following are Canadian grain handling summary
statistics for the week ended July 4, 2021. Figures in thousands of metric
tons.
Source: Canadian Grain Commission.
Durum
Wheat Wheat Oats Barley Flax Canola Peas Corn Total*
COMMERCIAL STOCKS
This Week 2365.0 631.0 363.2 180.2 39.5 1104.5 231.9 146.8 5442.0
Week Ago 2573.5 586.4 363.6 189.3 37.2 1191.8 240.7 163.2 5811.4
Year Ago 2266.3 689.9 224.8 330.6 59.4 1085.6 158.3 122.7 5433.4
PRODUCER DELIVERIES
This Week 308.2 87.8 26.8 18.7 2.2 182.9 14.5 0.9 674.4
Week Ago 440.9 127.4 46.1 34.1 2.8 276.3 17.7 1.9 986.6
To Date 20747.7 5786.9 2627.7 4581.1 432.2 19367.9 3530.0 358.4 61309.4
Year Ago 20356.0 4800.1 2376.0 3654.4 340.5 18747.8 3601.2 334.8 58012.0
TERMINAL RECEIPTS
This Week 308.4 146.5 1.2 2.2 2.2 51.7 3.7 6.6 544.5
Week Ago 411.5 144.8 31.1 10.7 1.9 108.1 7.2 29.4 831.0
To Date 21667.3 6827.7 605.9 3434.4 219.2 10603.3 2505.6 1443.5 53465.4
Year Ago 18742.8 5822.9 437.5 1947.4 191.5 9975.5 2430.8 509.6 45085.1
EXPORTS
This Week 418.5 26.5 42.8 1.0 0.7 90.6 18.3 32.1 728.3
Week Ago 398.9 14.3 12.9 18.5 1.3 207.3 24.8 72.0 801.4
To Date 18661.9 5619.5 1667.6 3690.7 299.5 10131.7 2550.7 1323.1 48829.7
Year Ago 16278.3 4731.2 1478.4 2016.1 199.1 9289.6 2454.7 358.0 40575.0
DOMESTIC DISAPPEARANCE
This Week 101.5 2.0 9.5 20.9 0.4 183.1 2.6 23.8 374.6
Week Ago 72.8 5.4 12.1 17.8 1.2 205.4 3.4 10.7 350.2
To Date 3753.3 507.0 732.3 1038.3 57.4 9886.0 183.8 828.5 18507.6
Year Ago 3608.9 436.0 728.4 1462.0 49.2 9672.9 220.2 655.6 18408.5
*Totals include data from other crops not shown including rye, soybeans,
canaryseed, mustard seed, beans, lentils and chickpeas.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-
9084)

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry north and west, showers and storms south and east. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June July May May May
July July July July
Augustg July July July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jul 8
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures for July 8, 2021.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 880.90 90.00 Nov 21 up 9.50
Basis: Thunder Bay 854.00 40.00 Nov 21 up 23.10
Basis: Vancouver 884.00 70.00 Nov 21 up 23.10
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – July 9
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 1022.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Aug 1002.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Sept 992.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 935.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 905.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 1025.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Aug 1005.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Sept 995.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 937.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 907.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 1005.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 965.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 4,050.00 +50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 298.00 +02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.191)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jul 09
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 244,853 lots, or 14.51 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-21 5,880 5,900 5,870 5,900 5,835 5,883 48 87 30
Sep-21 5,911 5,959 5,870 5,944 5,872 5,917 45 188,607 97,828
Nov-21 5,940 5,990 5,902 5,977 5,905 5,946 41 30,979 75,022
Jan-22 5,920 5,978 5,911 5,965 5,910 5,947 37 9,974 17,382
Mar-22 5,935 5,978 5,919 5,957 5,922 5,949 27 14,755 15,087
May-22 5,958 5,989 5,941 5,959 5,940 5,965 25 451 1,164
Corn
Turnover: 650,316 lots, or 16.71 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-21 – – – 2,785 2,785 2,785 0 0 0
Sep-21 2,569 2,574 2,558 2,567 2,570 2,567 -3 408,378 630,818
Nov-21 2,560 2,573 2,553 2,559 2,570 2,563 -7 94,881 256,116
Jan-22 2,572 2,583 2,567 2,570 2,581 2,574 -7 75,984 234,147
Mar-22 2,581 2,593 2,577 2,583 2,590 2,584 -6 68,298 51,615
May-22 2,610 2,624 2,607 2,610 2,613 2,613 0 2,775 12,542
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,430,914 lots, or 50.97 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-21 3,525 3,525 3,467 3,467 3,525 3,524 -1 956 973
Aug-21 3,567 3,611 3,563 3,611 3,578 3,590 12 44 754
Sep-21 3,563 3,603 3,554 3,580 3,566 3,583 17 953,837 1,102,340
Nov-21 3,588 3,625 3,577 3,601 3,588 3,604 16 63,558 59,583
Dec-21 3,552 3,599 3,552 3,570 3,570 3,580 10 14,600 35,875
Jan-22 3,538 3,565 3,528 3,540 3,543 3,545 2 308,046 553,914
Mar-22 3,367 3,402 3,367 3,380 3,385 3,384 -1 54,599 288,825
May-22 3,312 3,334 3,303 3,316 3,322 3,314 -8 35,274 73,301
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,159,291 lots, or 88.17 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-21 – – – 8,200 8,200 8,200 0 0 8
Aug-21 7,964 8,096 7,964 8,096 7,850 8,030 180 2 89
Sep-21 7,550 7,820 7,528 7,814 7,552 7,652 100 1,024,499 440,939
Oct-21 7,392 7,614 7,360 7,614 7,394 7,446 52 27,885 37,704
Nov-21 7,322 7,528 7,286 7,528 7,328 7,376 48 5,373 40,502
Dec-21 7,170 7,420 7,166 7,418 7,228 7,254 26 9,385 56,013
Jan-22 7,110 7,316 7,060 7,308 7,124 7,180 56 78,663 95,228
Feb-22 6,998 7,246 6,994 7,236 7,054 7,096 42 6,861 7,790
Mar-22 6,982 7,232 6,980 7,212 7,050 7,094 44 3,372 4,258
Apr-22 7,024 7,218 6,982 7,198 7,046 7,076 30 2,335 3,224
May-22 6,996 7,168 6,972 7,150 7,028 7,090 62 911 4,502
Jun-22 6,974 7,112 6,970 7,112 6,976 7,028 52 5 16
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,116,061 lots, or 94.76 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-21 – – – 8,940 8,940 8,940 0 0 514
Aug-21 8,610 8,760 8,610 8,760 8,520 8,660 140 6 149
Sep-21 8,458 8,650 8,440 8,634 8,458 8,526 68 939,353 411,123
Nov-21 8,350 8,550 8,342 8,536 8,354 8,416 62 42,290 57,559
Dec-21 8,284 8,476 8,266 8,464 8,284 8,342 58 13,769 77,598
Jan-22 8,186 8,386 8,186 8,368 8,214 8,262 48 112,767 164,814
Mar-22 8,012 8,246 8,012 8,236 8,076 8,124 48 6,920 21,364
May-22 7,918 8,046 7,860 8,038 7,906 7,956 50 956 5,393
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
This content was automatically published based on data and/or text from the original source. For feedback, write to singaporeeditors@dowjones.com.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322