About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. July Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
NEW YORK–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for U.S. ending stockpiles for 2020-21 and 2021-22, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Monday at noon ET.
U.S. Stockpiles (millions)
2020-21
Average Range USDA June
Corn 1,091 957-1,211 1,107
Soybeans 136 115-149 135
Wheat 845 843-852 852
2021-22
Average Range USDA June
Corn 1,309 1,057-1,540 1,357
Soybeans 140 102-165 155
Wheat 711 573-809 770
2020-21 2021-22
Corn Soybeans Wheat Corn Soybeans Wheat
AgriSompo North America 1,107 135 852 1,525 155 735
Allendale 1,087 149 844 1,244 145 809
DC Analysis 1,007 135 1,100 155 650
Doane 1,034 140 844 1,200 120 700
EDF Man 1,107 145 844 1,534 165 664
Futures International 1,156 140 1,483 161 749
Grain Cycles 1,132 145 1,424 165
Linn Group 1,211 134 1,076 102 796
Sid Love Consulting 1,107 135 843 1,408 155 768
Midland Research 1,082 135 844 1,197 120 728
RJ O’Brien 1,071 147 1,194 126 765
StoneX 1,136 133 844 1,245 114 573
US Commodities 957 130 845 1,057 120 575
Vantage RM 1,107 135 852 1,540 160 780
Western Milling 1,057 115 844 1,285 135 652
Zaner Ag Hedge 1,092 125 844 1,432 142 720

DJ July World Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
NEW YORK–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for world grain and soybean ending stockpiles for 2020-21 and 2021-22, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Monday at noon ET.
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2020-21
Average Range USDA June
Corn 278.4 274.0-284.0 280.6
Soybeans 87.6 86.7-88.7 88.0
Wheat 293.5 292.8-295.0 293.5
2021-22
Average Range USDA June
Corn 287.0 278.6-291.7 289.4
Soybeans 92.3 90.5-93.5 92.6
Wheat 295.8 292.0-300.0 296.8
2020-21 2021-22
Corn Soybeans Wheat Corn Soybeans Wheat
Allendale 278.6 88.7 292.8 286.0 92.4 294.5
EDF Man 284.0 87.0 295.0 291.0 93.5 299.0
Futures International 287.0 93.4 292.0
Linn Group 284.5 91.3 298.8
StoneX 277.0 86.7 293.0 278.6 90.5 292.3
US Commodities 289.4 92.6 296.8
Western Milling 274.0 88.0 293.5 288.0 93.0 300.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 278.2 87.4 293.1 291.7 92.0 293.4

DJ July Brazil, Argentina Corn, Soybean Production Estimates – Survey
NEW YORK–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for Brazil and Argentina corn and soybean production for 2020-21, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates on Monday at noon ET.
Brazil Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA June
Corn 91.5 87.9-97.0 98.5
Soybeans 137.0 135.7-138.0 137.0
Corn Soybeans
Allendale 93.5 137.0
DC Analysis 90.0 137.0
Doane 90.0 137.0
EDF Man 95.0 137.0
Futures International 94.0 137.0
Linn Group 88.5 137.0
Midland Research 92.0 137.0
StoneX 87.9 135.7
US Commodities 89.0 138.0
Western Milling 90.0 137.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 97.0 137.0
Argentina Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA June
Corn 47.5 47.0-48.0 47.0
Soybeans 46.4 45.0-47.0 47.0

Corn Soybeans
Allendale 47.0 45.0
DC Analysis 48.0 46.0
Doane 47.0 47.0
EDF Man 48.0 46.0
Futures International 47.0 47.0
Linn Group 48.0 47.0
Midland Research 48.0 47.0
StoneX 47.5 45.0
US Commodities 47.5 46.5
Western Milling 47.0 47.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 47.0 47.0

DJ U.S. Wheat Production Estimates — Survey
NEW YORK–The following are analysts’ estimates for 2021-22 U.S. wheat production, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated production forecasts at noon on Monday.
2021-22 Wheat Production
Average Range USDA June USDA 2020-21
All Wheat 1,835 1,724-1,932 1,898 1,826
Winter Wheat 1,337 1,308-1,372 1,309 1,171
Hard Red Winter 792 762-826 771 659
Soft Red Winter 344 325-357 335 266
White Winter 201 180-246 202 246
Other Spring 446 358-537 N/A 586
Durum 52 40-65 N/A 69
All Winter Other
Wheat Wheat Hard-Red Soft-Red White Spring Durum
Allendale 1,917 1,333 762 325 246 517 65
DC Analysis 1,800 1,342 797 350 195 408 50
Doane 1,836 1,360 807 350 203 424 52
EDF Man 1,775 1,310 775 340 195 415 50
Futures International 1,850 1,372 795 357 220 434 44
Linn Group 1,932 1,335 796 345 194 537 60
Sid Love Consulting 1,905 1,318 790 340 188 537 50
Midland Research 1,864 1,357 826 341 190 455 52
RJ O’Brien 1,818 1,354 812 348 194 424 40
StoneX 1,724 1,308 777 333 198 358 58
Western Milling 1,770 1,320 790 350 180 400 50
Zaner Ag Hedge 1,829 1,334 778 345 210 440 56

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jul 8
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
ROUGH RICE July Jul 09, 2021 4 Jul 01, 2021
KC HRW WHEAT July Jul 09, 2021 1 Jun 24, 2021
SOYBEAN July Jul 09, 2021 12 Jun 29, 2021

DJ Brazil Cuts 2020-2021 Total Corn Crop Forecast to 93.4M Tons
By Jeffrey T. Lewis
SAO PAULO–Brazilian crop agency Conab cut its forecast for corn production for the 2020-2021 growing season as a lack of rain in many areas hit productivity.
Brazilian farmers will produce 93.4 million metric tons of corn this season, the agency said Thursday. In June, the agency forecast a crop of 96.4 million tons. Brazil produced 102.6 million tons of soybeans in 2019-2020.
The agency left its estimate for soybean production for the period at 135.9 million tons.
Brazil produces three corn crops per year, according to Conab, a summer crop, a winter crop, and a crop produced at about the same time as the winter crop, but in Brazil’s warm northeast. The winter crop has felt the impact of the dry weather, but also lost some productivity because farmers planted late in some areas and because of recent cold weather, Conab said.
Write to Jeffrey T. Lewis at jeffrey.lewis@wsj.com

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were mixed yesterday and Minneapolis Spring Wheat was higher as the rain forecast for Spring Wheat areas is now less and as the Winter Wheat harvest continues. Yield reports have generally been good in Winter Wheat areas. Trends are mixed on the daily charts for the Winter Wheat markets. Minneapolis Spring What closed strong even with forecasts for some rains in important growing areas. There are ideas that the rains will not help much as they are late. The dry and hot weather seen to date have produced very low crop condition ratings and conditions are not expected to improve much if at all in coming weeks. Winter Wheat yield reports are strong, so the supply will likely be good once the harvest is complete. There have been some rains in the region to keep the harvest pressure on the slow side but the quality seems good. However, the Spring Wheat situation is different and a short crop is increasingly likely.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 586 and 524 September. Support is at 616, 610, and 594 September, with resistance at 638, 645, and 648 September. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 575 September. Support is at 578, 568, and 562 September, with resistance at 608, 613, and 628 September. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives f 762 and 698 September. Support is at 805, 796, and 779 September, and resistance is at 827, 835, and 846 September.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed a little higher in consolidation trading as USDA showed only very slight improvement in crop condition overnight. The crop overall appears to be in good shape. Growing conditions have been mixed at best with many areas getting too much rain. Rice areas have generally been wet and northern areas have been cool. Louisiana and parts of Mississippi were saturated and are still reported to be wetter than desired for strong production and good quality. Some big storms are in the forecast for the rest of the week. Warm temperatures are reported in Arkansas and Missouri and the crop progress is improving. However, it is still very wet in Arkansas and farmer progress has been limited for the last couple of weeks. Texas has been wet.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1272 and 1204 September. Support is at 1275, 1256, and 1250 September, with resistance at 1311, 1331, and 1340 September.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn was lower on follow through speculative selling. Weather forecasts now call for cooler temperatures and generous rains in the Midwest, including in the very dry northwest parts of the belt. It will not be as hot in the Great Plains and western Midwest as it has been. Pollination is coming and it looks like pollination will happen under good conditions. Reports of damaging cold weather in Brazil a week ago supported the market. Temperatures got close to or just below freezing in parts of southern Brazil and on into Paraguay. Temperatures are more moderate now. There are ideas of losses to Corn in these areas, and some ideas are that the losses could be extensive in affected areas. Oats were higher. Canadian Oats areas look to get some rain in the next couple of weeks, but US areas showed mixed conditions in the weekly USDA updates. Longer range forecasts released by NWS call for warmer and drier weather for many important US growing areas this Summer.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 528, 516, and 505 September, and resistance is at 570, 579, and 588 September. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 358 September. Support is at 366, 362, and 358 September, and resistance is at 379, 382, and 384 September.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher I response to the USDA report showing unchanged or slightly deteriorating crop conditions. Soybeans conditions in central production area are often too wet and have suffered. The weather forecasts changed to wetter and cooler and the crop needs dry conditions and some heat. Reports of big rains in much of the Midwest and forecasts for more rains in the coming week were negative, but some areas are now getting too much rain. Minnesota and northern Iowa and the Dakotas should get very beneficial rain. Forecasts call for cooler weather this week in the Midwest and northern Great Plains, and it should generally be wet. China has started with new US Soybeans purchases for Fall delivery. The longer range forecasts from NWS call for warmer and drier than normal conditions for most Soybeans areas of the US.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 122,200 tons of US Soybean Meal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1334, 1316, and 1299 August, and resistance is at 1400, 1408, and 1418 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 355.00, 347.00, and 341.00 August, and resistance is at 367.00, 375.00, and 379.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5900, 5770, and 5460 August, with resistance at 6220, 6560, and 6590 August.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were lower again today in sympathy with Chicago. Trends are mixe on the daily charts. The private surveyors showed more demand for last month in reports issued last week and ideas are that the stronger demand can continue as India has cut its import taxes. Canola closed higher on rumors of export buying, but found selling on weather concerns. Some showers are in the forecast for the Prairies this week and it remains generally dry. The showers have a chance to be very beneficial. Demand has improved a little bit with the recently weaker prices.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 762.00, 757.00, and 738.00 November, with resistance at 812.00, 836.00, and 838.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 3700, 3680, and 3590 September, with resistance at 3840, 3880, and 3930 September.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry north and west, showers and storms south and east. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June July May May May
July July July July
August July July July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jul 7
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures for July 7, 2021.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 871.40 100.00 Nov 21 dn 30.00
Basis: Thunder Bay 830.90 40.00 Nov 21 up 19.50
Basis: Vancouver 860.90 70.00 Nov 21 up 19.50
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – July 8
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 1017.50 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Aug 1002.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Sept 987.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 927.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 907.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 1020.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Aug 1005.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Sept 990.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 930.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 910.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 1005.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 965.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 4,000.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 296.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.18)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jul 08
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 200,403 lots, or 11.79 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-21 – – – 5,835 5,835 5,835 0 0 30
Sep-21 5,866 5,911 5,826 5,904 5,852 5,872 20 147,441 94,538
Nov-21 5,920 5,943 5,865 5,940 5,887 5,905 18 29,606 72,509
Jan-22 5,902 5,949 5,869 5,940 5,899 5,910 11 6,159 17,900
Mar-22 5,911 5,954 5,881 5,946 5,903 5,922 19 16,898 15,471
May-22 5,872 5,970 5,872 5,970 5,927 5,940 13 299 1,100
Corn
Turnover: 746,733 lots, or 19.22 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-21 – – – 2,785 2,785 2,785 0 0 0
Sep-21 2,562 2,585 2,557 2,569 2,583 2,570 -13 518,546 621,060
Nov-21 2,578 2,580 2,559 2,568 2,577 2,570 -7 84,199 248,886
Jan-22 2,580 2,592 2,570 2,578 2,589 2,581 -8 82,716 223,859
Mar-22 2,593 2,601 2,572 2,589 2,599 2,590 -9 57,856 50,623
May-22 2,615 2,624 2,604 2,611 2,623 2,613 -10 3,416 12,534
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,329,280 lots, or 47.14 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-21 3,525 3,527 3,525 3,527 3,500 3,525 25 10 3,578
Aug-21 3,548 3,601 3,548 3,601 3,577 3,578 1 493 780
Sep-21 3,560 3,590 3,551 3,584 3,571 3,566 -5 831,244 1,104,573
Nov-21 3,573 3,612 3,571 3,605 3,592 3,588 -4 68,790 58,059
Dec-21 3,560 3,593 3,554 3,583 3,577 3,570 -7 36,532 34,582
Jan-22 3,538 3,564 3,527 3,556 3,552 3,543 -9 281,242 563,536
Mar-22 3,373 3,402 3,370 3,395 3,400 3,385 -15 74,623 283,416
May-22 3,321 3,340 3,309 3,327 3,334 3,322 -12 36,346 69,317
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,101,469 lots, or 82.66 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-21 – – – 8,200 8,200 8,200 0 0 8
Aug-21 7,946 7,946 7,784 7,862 7,946 7,850 -96 19 89
Sep-21 7,550 7,642 7,450 7,610 7,596 7,552 -44 952,690 405,692
Oct-21 7,418 7,490 7,308 7,444 7,452 7,394 -58 33,011 36,149
Nov-21 7,364 7,414 7,236 7,370 7,384 7,328 -56 6,208 39,741
Dec-21 7,230 7,308 7,132 7,250 7,284 7,228 -56 11,134 53,981
Jan-22 7,130 7,212 7,026 7,134 7,184 7,124 -60 81,905 93,296
Feb-22 7,064 7,142 6,966 7,058 7,122 7,054 -68 6,186 7,480
Mar-22 7,064 7,138 6,958 7,058 7,114 7,050 -64 5,682 4,207
Apr-22 7,092 7,128 6,956 7,056 7,102 7,046 -56 3,911 3,182
May-22 7,038 7,116 6,948 7,052 7,084 7,028 -56 719 4,452
Jun-22 6,918 7,050 6,918 7,050 7,060 6,976 -84 4 15
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,109,344 lots, or 93.45 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-21 – – – 8,940 8,940 8,940 0 0 514
Aug-21 – – – 8,520 8,520 8,520 0 0 148
Sep-21 8,460 8,554 8,374 8,528 8,460 8,458 -2 933,156 406,595
Nov-21 8,368 8,442 8,282 8,418 8,384 8,354 -30 36,790 56,429
Dec-21 8,306 8,360 8,210 8,346 8,324 8,284 -40 11,659 77,954
Jan-22 8,212 8,284 8,136 8,262 8,244 8,214 -30 117,590 164,159
Mar-22 8,098 8,148 8,002 8,118 8,110 8,076 -34 9,460 21,255
May-22 7,928 7,956 7,826 7,920 7,932 7,906 -26 689 5,387
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322