Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We start off the day with MBA Mortgage Applications (02/Jul) and MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (02/Jul)at 6:00 A.M., Redbook YoY (03/Jul) at 6:55 A.M., IBD/TIPP Optimism (Jul) and JOLTS Job Openings at 9:00 A.M., NY Fed Treasury Purchases 10 to 22.5 yrs. At 9:30 A.M., FOMC Minutes at 1:00 P.M., Dairy Product Sales at 2:00 P.M. and API Energy Stocks at 3:30 P.M.
On the Corn Front the market settled limit down after rallying after last Wednesday Grains Stocks and Planted acreage which were both bullish. The bears seem to think that this crop will not leave shortages and I beg to differ. Although we have seen rains in certain areas of the Plains and Midwest they were still dry as a bone and were in a drought. The rains also missed some areas that needed it most, and throw in hot weather and cooler nights could be bearish but there are two things to consider! Brazil’s frost damage was worse than expected, global carryover is low and exports will be on the rise. We will get a glimpse of the weekly numbers on the weekly Export sales on Friday. In the overnight electronic session the December corn is currently trading at 537 which is 2 ¾ cents lower. The trading range has been 545 1/4 to 531.
On the Ethanol front the news is quiet as well as the mood after the Supreme Court decision last week. There were no trades posted in the overnight electronic session. The august contract settled at 2.380 and is currently showing no market and Open Interest at 2 contracts.
On the Crude Oil Front the prices are stabilizing after yesterday’s slide due to the standoff with OPEC and OPEC+ over members output. Oil has been volatile after talks collapsed on Monday, derailing a proposal to ease existing output curbs and allow production to rise by 400,000 barrels a day each month from August through December. We also have the API energy stocks today at 3:30 P.M. and I am expecting draws on crude oil and neutral on products. In the overnight electronic session the August crude oil is currently trading at 7364 which is 27 points higher. The trading range has been 7486 to 7288.
On the Natural Gas Front this market absorbed a blow yesterday as well. The International Energy Agency sees natural gas rebounding and we are also expecting a rise in global exports as rising natural gas consumption is out of sync with pathways to aggressive emissions cuts needed to keep the paris climate deal in reach. All I want is the spark that keeps my electricity running no matter if it is 80 degrees plus or 60 degrees below zero. In the overnight electronic session the August natural gas is currently trading at 3.641 which is .004 higher. The trading range has been 3.707 to 3.631.
Have A Great Trading Day!