Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
Date 4-Jul 27-Jun 2020 Avg
Cotton Squaring 42 32 45 46
Cotton Setting Bolls 11 7 12 13
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 1 9 38 44 8
Cotton Last Week 1 6 41 43 9
Cotton Last Year 4 19 34 36 7
General Comments: Futures were a little higher but closed well off of the highs of the day. News of another tropical system coming into the Southeast helped support futures prices. Elsa is coming to the Gulf of Mexico but to the east side and the Southeast is threatened with big rains and perhaps some wind this week. Cotton growing conditions have improved in the last couple of weeks with rains reported in West Texas and less rain the Delta. Texas should get some showers this week. Some scattered showers are in the forecast in the Delta and Southeast. Production ideas are being impacted in just about all areas due to the weather extremes.
Overnight News: The Delta will get scattered showers and near to below normal temperatures and Southeast will get scattered showers with some heavy amounts today and near to below normal temperatures. Texas will have scattered showers and below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 83.75 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 119,966 bales, from 126,034 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for July delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 115 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 8590, 8470, and 8400 December, with resistance of 8790, 8830 and 8930 December.
General Comments: FCOJ closed lower as a tropical system passed very close to the west coast of Florida but did no damage to Citrus. Elsa is currently passing by Florida, but there are not likely to be damaging winds from the system. The state could get excessive rainfall. A big storm could threaten trees and fruit. Brazil is reported to be in good condition, but dry. It has been cold but any damage is called minor. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production. Northern and western Mexico are getting some rains.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers with heavy amounts today. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 131.00 September. Support is at 120.00, 118.00, and 116.00 September, with resistance at 124.00, 128.00, and 130.00 September.
General Comments: New York closed lower again yesterday after reports of cold weather in Brazil that did little damage to Coffee. Temperatures are now warmer and there are no forecasts for damaging cold for a while. The move in New York comes as the Brazil crop is coming to the market. London was also lower despite demand is moderate for Robusta these days. The offers are starting to increase as the Arabica harvest is expanding in Brazil. The Robusta harvest is active in Brazil as well. Good conditions are reported in northern South America and good conditions reported in Central America. Colombia is having trouble exporting Coffee due to protests inside the country. Conditions are reported to be generally good in Asia and Africa although Southeast Asia is turning drier.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are a little lower today at 2.170 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 137.26 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE said that 0 contracts were posted for delivery today against NY July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 412 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 147.00, 146.00, and 142.00 September, and resistance is at 155.00, 158.00 and 164.00 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1660, 1620, and 1590 September, and resistance is at 1730, 1760, and 1790 September.
General Comments: New York and London were lower as Brazil temperatures have moderated and the threat of Winterkill has passed. It was cold enough to damage Sugarcane crops in the central south of Brazil. Warmer temperatures are reported now. Mills were also processing for more Ethanol and less for Sugar than expected and this trend should continue with higher world petroleum prices. London has been the leader to the downside on ample supplies of White Sugar available to the market. There is plenty of White Sugar available in India for the market and monsoon rains are promoting good conditions for the next crop. Thailand is expecting improved production. Sugar demand is said to be weak. Ethanol demand is returning to the market as more world economies open up after the pandemic.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. ICE said that 2,587 contracts were delivered against July futures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1770, 1740, and 1720 October, and resistance is at 1850, 1880, and 1910 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 466.00, 460.00, and 454.00 October, and resistance is at 479.00, 482.00, and 488.00 October.
General Comments: New York and London closed lower on follow through selling. The daily charts show down trends in New York and in London. Ports in West Africa are filled with Cocoa right now as demand remains lackluster. The weather has had above average rains in West Africa and crop conditions are rated good. European demand has been slow and demand ideas in general are weak. The supplies are there for any increased demand.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.837 million bags. ICE said that 2 contracts were posted for July delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 267 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2290 and 2220 September. Support is at 2280, 2250, and 2220 September, with resistance at 2340, 2370, and 2410 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1600, 1590, and 1570 September, with resistance at 1640, 1650, and 1670 September.