About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jul 7
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN OIL July Jul 08, 2021 23 Jun 28, 2021
ROUGH RICE July Jul 08, 2021 9 Jul 01, 2021
SOYBEAN July Jul 08, 2021 13 Jun 25, 2021

Crop Progress
Date 4-Jul 27-Jun 2020 Avg
Cotton Squaring 42 32 45 46
Cotton Setting Bolls 11 7 12 13
Corn Silking 10 4 9 14
Soybeans Blooming 29 14 29 24
Soybeans Setting Pods 3 2 3
Sorghum Headed 22 19 24 25
Sorghum Coloring 14 13 14
Rice Headed 14 8 18 17
Peanuts Pegging 48 34 49 51
Sunflowers Planted 95 92 94 95
Oats Headed 88 77 83 71
Winter Wheat Harvested 45 33 83 53
Spring Wheat Headed 69 48 59 62
Barley Headed 59 43 57 59

Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 1 9 38 44 8
Cotton Last Week 1 6 41 43 9
Cotton Last Year 4 19 34 36 7

Corn This Week 2 7 27 50 14
Corn Last Week 2 6 28 51 13
Corn Last Year 1 5 23 54 17

Soybeans This Week 3 8 30 49 10
Soybeans Last Week 2 7 31 50 10
Soybeans Last Year 1 4 24 57 14

Winter Wheat This Week 7 16 30 38 9
Winter Wheat Last Week 6 15 31 39 9
Winter Wheat Last Year 6 11 32 41 10

Spring Wheat This Week 18 32 34 14 2
Spring Wheat Last Week 14 25 41 18 2
Spring Wheat Last Year 1 5 24 59 11

Rice This Week 1 3 23 57 16
Rice Last Week 1 3 23 59 14
Rice Last Year 1 3 23 55 18

Oats This Week 9 21 36 29 5
Oats Last Week 6 20 37 32 5
Oats Last Year 2 8 28 51 11

Barley This Week 13 26 39 15 7
Barley Last Week 7 18 44 23 8
Barley Last Year 1 4 22 49 24

Sorghum This Week 1 3 24 58 14
Sorghum Last Week 1 3 26 57 13
Sorghum Last Year 2 10 40 44 4

Peanuts This Week 0 2 29 61 8
Peanuts Last Week 1 2 28 58 11
Peanuts Last Year 1 7 23 62 7

Pasture and Range This Week 20 22 27 25 6
Pasture and Range Last Week 21 22 26 25 6
Pasture and Range Last Year 10 18 31 35 6

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Jul 6
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND WEIGHED
THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT. NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS,
COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING JUL 01, 2021
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 07/01/2021 06/24/2021 07/02/2020 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 392 0 1,175 367
CORN 1,235,931 1,033,703 1,034,629 58,151,738 34,379,268
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 0 293
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 100 0 100 100 400
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 3,344 37,212 58,365 6,482,303 4,070,104
SOYBEANS 206,152 110,515 561,635 57,451,813 37,383,262
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 240 0
WHEAT 258,438 288,548 413,895 1,792,539 2,414,848
Total 1,703,965 1,470,370 2,068,624 123,879,908 78,248,542
————————————————————————
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were sharply lower yesterday on rain forecast for Spring Wheat areas and as the Winter Wheat harvest continues. Yield reports have generally been good. Trends are mixed on the daily charts for the Winter Wheat markets. Minneapolis Spring What closed much lower as the dry weather continues but as generous rains are forecast for Spring Wheat areas over the next couple of weeks. There are ideas that the rains will not help much as they are late, but the market was sharply lower anyway. The dry and hot weather seen to date have produced very low crop condition ratings and conditions are not expected to improve much if at all in coming weeks. Winter Wheat yield reports are strong, so the supply will likely be good once the harvest is complete. There have been some rains in the region to keep the harvest pressure on the slow side but the quality seems good. However, the Spring Wheat situation is different and a short crop is increasingly likely.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with no objectives. Support is at 616, 611, and 594 September, with resistance at 632, 638, and 658 September. Trends in Kansas City are down with no objectives. Support is at 579, 566, and 560 September, with resistance at 592, 604, and 613 September. Trends in Minneapolis are down with no objectives. Support is at 779, 757, and 744 September, and resistance is at 796, 805, and 827 September.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed lower on follow through selling as long liquidation and perhaps some new selling. Growing conditions have been mixed at best with many areas getting too much rain. Rice areas have generally been wet and northern areas have been cool. Louisiana and parts of Mississippi were saturated and are still reported to be wetter than desired for strong production and good quality. Some big storms are in the forecast for the rest of the week. Warm temperatures are reported in Arkansas and Missouri and the crop progress is improving. However, it is still very wet in Arkansas and farmer progress has been limited for the last couple of weeks. Texas has been wet. World prices \were mostly a little lower last week.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1272 and 1204 September. Support is at 1275, 1256, and 1250 September, with resistance at 1314, 1331, and 1340 September.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn was sharply lower to mostly limit down as the weather forecasts changed. Weather forecasts now call for cooler temperatures and generous rains in the Midwest, including in the very dry northwest parts of the belt. It will not be as hot in the Great Plains and western Midwest as it has been. Reports of damaging cold weather in Brazil a week ago supported the market. Temperatures got close to or just below freezing in parts of southern Brazil and on into Paraguay. Temperatures are more moderate now. There are ideas of losses to Corn in these areas, and some ideas are that the losses could be extensive in affected areas. Oats were lower. Canadian Oats areas look to get some rain in the next couple of weeks. Longer range forecasts released by NWS call for warmer and drier weather for many important US growing areas this Summer.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 547, 528, and 525 September, and resistance is at 570, 579, and 588 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 358, 356, and 350 September, and resistance is at 379, 382, and 392 September.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products sharply lower. The weather forecasts changed to wetter and cooler. Reports of big rains in much of the Midwest and forecasts for more rains in the coming week were negative, but some areas are now getting too much rain. Minnesota and northern Iowa and the Dakotas should get very beneficial rain. Forecasts call for cooler weather this week in the Midwest and northern Great Plains, and it should generally be wet. China has started with new US Soybeans purchases for Fall delivery. The longer range forecasts from NWS call for warmer and drier than normal conditions for most Soybeans areas of the US.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1316, 1299, and 1289 August, and resistance is at 1381, 1408, and 1418 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 355.00, 346.00, and 341.00 August, and resistance is at 367.00, 376.00, and 379.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 6000, 5900, and 5780 August, with resistance at 6220, 6590, and 6800 August.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were lower today in sympathy with Chicago. Trends are still up on both the daily and the weekly charts. The private surveyors showed more demand for last month in reports issued last week and ideas are that the stronger demand can continue as India has cut its import taxes. Canola closed sharply lower to mostly limit down on weather concerns and on tight current supplies. Some showers are in the forecast for the Prairies this week and it remains generally dry. The showers have a chance to be very beneficial. Demand has improved a little bit with the recently weaker prices.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 769.00, 745.00, and 730.00 November, with resistance at 804.00, 814.00, and 835.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up with no objectives. Support is at 3700, 3680, and 3590 September, with resistance at 3980, 3930, and 4100 September.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry north and west, showers and storms south and east. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June July May May May
July July July July
August July July July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jul 6
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures for July 6, 2021.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 901.40 100.00 Nov 21 dn 29.50
Basis: Thunder Bay 811.40 40.00 Nov 21 dn 30.00
Basis: Vancouver 841.40 70.00 Nov 21 dn 30.00
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – July 7
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 1032.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Aug 1005.00 -17.50 Unquoted – –
Sept 992.50 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 932.50 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 907.50 — Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 1035.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Aug 1007.50 -17.50 Unquoted – –
Sept 995.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 935.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 910.00 — Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 1010.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 970.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 4,000.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 296.00 -04.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.16)

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322