About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Futures were a little lower last week but held inside the trading range on the weekly charts. Ideas that crops in the Delta were hurt by the recent tropical storm that passed through the region provided the best support. Another tropical system is coming to the Gulf of Mexico but to the east side and the Southeast is threatened with big rains and perhaps some wind this week. Cotton growing conditions have improved in the last couple of weeks with rains reported in West Texas and less rain the Delta. Texas should get some showers this week. Some scattered showers are in the forecast in the Delta and Southeast. Production ideas are being impacted in just about all areas due to the weather extremes.
Overnight News: The Delta will get scattered showers and near to below normal temperatures and Southeast will get scattered showers and near to below normal temperatures. Texas will have scattered showers and below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 83.40 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 126,034 bales, from 126,034 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for July delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 115 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 8590, 8470, and 8400 December, with resistance of 8790, 8830 and 8930 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 29, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 263,171
: Positions :
: 60,878 5,702 51,032 44,912 189,215 89,663 9,809 246,485 255,759: 16,686 7,412
: Changes from: June 22, 2021 (Change in open interest: 10,706) :
: 5,805 -1,007 2,913 -327 8,632 1,616 811 10,008 11,348: 698 -643
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 23.1 2.2 19.4 17.1 71.9 34.1 3.7 93.7 97.2: 6.3 2.8
: Total Traders: 265 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 120 28 75 49 59 42 18 235 163:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher again Friday and higher for the week on follow through buying. Chart trends are turning up on the daily charts and are no worse than sideways on the weekly charts. There are some tropical storms in the Atlantic and one is likely to move into Florida. Elsa is currently near the Windward Islands and could pass over Cuba and then into Florida, but there are not likely to be damaging winds from the system. The state could get excessive rainfall. A big storm could threaten trees and fruit. Brazil is reported to be in good condition, but dry. It has been cold but any damage is called minor. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production. Northern and western Mexico are getting some rains.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers and above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 131.00 September. Support is at 124.00, 133.00, and 120.00 September, with resistance at 128.00, 130.00, and 132.00 September.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of June 29, 2021
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 12,805 :
: Positions :
: 3,661 8,654 1,775 77 0 2,071 811 125 1,497 774 1,206 :
: Changes from: June 22, 2021 :
: -355 -353 9 0 0 -74 15 12 96 -124 12 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 28.6 67.6 13.9 0.6 0.0 16.2 6.3 1.0 11.7 6.0 9.4 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 63 :
: 16 11 5 . 0 7 6 . 18 7 6 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: New York closed lower last week after reports of cold weather in Brazil that did little damage to Coffee. Temperatures are now warmer and there are no forecasts for damaging cold for a while. The move in New York comes as the Brazil crop is coming to the market. London held better and it looks like demand is moderate for Robusta these days. The offers are starting to increase as the Arabica harvest is expanding in Brazil. Good conditions are reported in northern South America and good conditions reported in Central America. Colombia is having trouble exporting Coffee right now due to protests inside the country. Conditions are reported to be generally good in Asia and Africa although Southeast Asia is turning drier.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are unchanged today at 2.171 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 141.53 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with below normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE said that 21 contracts were posted for delivery today against NY July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 353 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of `168.00 September. Support is at 155.00, 153.00, and 152.00 September, and resistance is at 158.00, 165.00 and 168.00 September. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1730 September. Support is at 1620, 1600, and 1580 September, and resistance is at 1730, 1760, and 1790 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 29, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 341,338
: Positions :
: 56,074 24,559 94,894 89,447 199,567 88,331 15,547 328,745 334,567: 12,592 6,771
: Changes from: June 22, 2021 (Change in open interest: 11,795) :
: 3,998 -1,055 5,039 3,108 8,663 167 7 12,312 12,654: -517 -859
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 16.4 7.2 27.8 26.2 58.5 25.9 4.6 96.3 98.0: 3.7 2.0
: Total Traders: 451 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 179 66 134 121 123 44 22 403 300:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 06/29/2021
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
134,995 39,757 82,678 9,661 8,572 2,735
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 29.5% 61.2% 7.2% 6.3% 2.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
157 45 43 10 6 7
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
36,370 5,132 12,254 9,436 2,121 18,693
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
26.9% 3.8% 9.1% 7.0% 1.6% 13.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
46 8 19 19 10 22
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
6,089 2,810
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.5% 2.1%

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London were higher as Brazil was cold last week. It was cold enough to damage Sugarcane crops in the central south of Brazil. Warmer temperatures are reported now. Mills were also processing for more Ethanol and less for Sugar than expected. London has been the leader to the downside on ample supplies of White Sugar available to the market. There is plenty of White Sugar available in India for the market and monsoon rains are promoting good conditions for the next crop. Thailand is expecting improved production. Sugar demand is said to be weak. Ethanol demand is returning to the market as more world economies open up after the pandemic.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. ICE said that 2,587 contracts were delivered against July futures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 1830 October. Support is at 1770, 1740, and 1720 October, and resistance is at 1790, 1820, and 1850 October. Trends in London are up with objectives of 474.00 October. Support is at 460.00, 450.00, and 445.00 October, and resistance is at 477.00, 482.00, and 488.00 October.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 29, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,045,294
: Positions :
: 185,457 37,248 197,857 285,426 692,990 290,553 73,408 959,294 1,001,504: 86,001 43,791
: Changes from: June 22, 2021 (Change in open interest: -20,554) :
: -795 -1,078 -111 -21,397 -13,910 2,182 202 -20,120 -14,897: -434 -5,658
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 17.7 3.6 18.9 27.3 66.3 27.8 7.0 91.8 95.8: 8.2 4.2
: Total Traders: 239 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 83 25 67 79 78 39 18 221 168:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 06/29/2021
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
80,942 39,779 63,031 11,670 2,330 2,745
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 49.1% 77.9% 14.4% 2.9% 3.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
105 37 33 11 4 8
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
13,658 3,790 3,510 2,049 542 1,373
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
16.9% 4.7% 4.3% 2.5% 0.7% 1.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
19 12 12 9 3 9
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
6,158 3,621
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
7.6% 4.5%

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed lower in range trading. The daily charts show down trends in New York, but still show mixed trends in London. The weekly charts show that both markets are trading near the low end of the recent trading ranges. Ports in West Africa are filled with Cocoa right now as demand remains lackluster. The weather has had above average rains in West Africa and crop conditions are rated good. European demand has been slow and demand ideas in general are weak. The supplies are there for any increased demand.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.837 million bags. ICE said that 2 contracts were posted for July delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 265 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2290 and 2220 September. Support is at 2300, 2280, and 2240 September, with resistance at 2370, 2410, and 2430 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1600, 1590, and 1570 September, with resistance at 1640, 1650, and 1670 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 29, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 258,863
: Positions :
: 28,800 42,540 63,661 102,679 124,985 50,906 18,298 246,046 249,483: 12,817 9,380
: Changes from: June 22, 2021 (Change in open interest: 11,789) :
: 2,620 4,408 4,032 5,088 1,988 -134 358 11,606 10,787: 183 1,002
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.1 16.4 24.6 39.7 48.3 19.7 7.1 95.0 96.4: 5.0 3.6
: Total Traders: 226 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 67 64 63 50 38 33 18 190 149:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 06/29/2021
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
282,559 192,926 179,675 29,129 23,149 11,821
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 68.3% 63.6% 10.3% 8.2% 4.2%
Number of Traders in Each Category
131 48 38 12 6 11
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
7,976 29,709 8,764 4,178 546 25,709
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
2.8% 10.5% 3.1% 1.5% 0.2% 9.1%
Number of Traders in Each Category
13 24 6 16 6 18
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
2,056 3,186
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
0.7% 1.1%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322