About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jul 6
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN OIL July Jul 07, 2021 23 Jun 25, 2021
ROUGH RICE July Jul 07, 2021 5 Jul 01, 2021
OATS July Jul 07, 2021 1 Jun 30, 2021
SOYBEAN July Jul 07, 2021 13 Jun 11, 2021
This content was published based on data and/or text from the original source. For feedback, write to csstat@dowjones.com.

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were lower on Friday, but still closed higher for the week, as the Winter Wheat harvest continues. Yield reports have generally been good. Trends are mixed on the daily charts for the Winter Wheat markets. Minneapolis Spring What closed much higher last week ad trends are up in this market. Dry weather is still forecast for Spring Wheat areas, but it will turn cooler. The dry and hot weather seen to date have produced very low crop condition ratings and conditions are not expected to improve much if at all this week. Winter Wheat yield reports are strong, so the supply will likely be good once the harvest is complete. There have been some rains in the region to keep the harvest pressure on the slow side but the quality seems good. However, the Spring Wheat situation is different and a short crop is increasingly likely.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 637, 632, and 628 September, with resistance at 676, 687, and 694 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 611, 605, and 603 September, with resistance at 638, 655, and 662 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 820, 796, and 780 September, and resistance is at 860, 864, and 870 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 29, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 417,177
: Positions :
: 33,878 72,326 112,999 57,157 163,361 186,401 29,529 390,436 378,216: 26,741 38,960
: Changes from: June 22, 2021 (Change in open interest: -79,855) :
: -4,262 -1,140 -58,373 -3,977 -11,141 -9,811 -6,870 -76,423 -77,523: -3,432 -2,331
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.1 17.3 27.1 13.7 39.2 44.7 7.1 93.6 90.7: 6.4 9.3
: Total Traders: 312 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 73 70 90 64 106 48 21 234 244:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 29, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 194,370
: Positions :
: 38,065 30,114 32,125 33,385 99,905 73,929 11,972 177,504 174,115: 16,866 20,254
: Changes from: June 22, 2021 (Change in open interest: -24,206) :
: -473 -5,821 -12,443 -9,970 -1,354 635 -1,306 -22,252 -20,923: -1,954 -3,283
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 19.6 15.5 16.5 17.2 51.4 38.0 6.2 91.3 89.6: 8.7 10.4
: Total Traders: 224 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 45 38 43 65 80 36 16 167 160:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of June 29, 2021
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 81,953 :
: Positions :
: 29,166 57,303 4,007 1,065 1,892 11,256 1,287 1,967 4,091 1,683 5,549 :
: Changes from: June 22, 2021 :
: -2,433 -2,018 -945 -60 451 -1,007 -109 -480 1,044 31 -1,882 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 35.6 69.9 4.9 1.3 2.3 13.7 1.6 2.4 5.0 2.1 6.8 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 115 :
: 51 47 5 . 6 16 4 4 18 5 15 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of June 29, 2021
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
BLACK SEA WHEAT FINANCIAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE 50 Metric Tons :
CFTC Code #00160F Open Interest is 24,391 :
: Positions :
: 7,276 20,394 1,771 0 973 10,638 0 0 1,556 1,044 1,360 :
: Changes from: June 22, 2021 :
: 660 955 45 0 143 351 0 -230 -45 -15 203 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 29.8 83.6 7.3 0.0 4.0 43.6 0.0 0.0 6.4 4.3 5.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 28 :
: 8 16 . 0 . 4 0 0 . 4 . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed lower as long liquidation and perhaps some new selling hit the market on Friday. It was a slow trading day but trends turned down on the daily charts. The plantings report showed more planted area than the industry had expected and is not generally believed in the cash market. The industry thinks that planted area is lower and perhaps much lower. The stocks report showed that there is still a lot of Rice out there and more than some in the trade had hoped for. Growing conditions have been mixed at best with many areas getting too much rain. Rice areas have generally been wet and northern areas have been cool. Louisiana and parts of Mississippi were saturated and are still reported to be wetter than desired for strong production and good quality. Some big storms are in the forecast for the rest of the week. Warm temperatures are reported in Arkansas and Missouri and the crop progress is improving. However, it is still very wet in Arkansas and farmer progress has been limited for the last couple of weeks. Texas has been wet. World prices \were mostly a little lower last week.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1272 and 1204 September. Support is at 1296, 1287, and 1277 September, with resistance at 1331, 1340, and 1357 September.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of June 29, 2021
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 7,930 :
: Positions :
: 4,485 4,172 143 100 0 556 1,080 21 789 781 652 :
: Changes from: June 22, 2021 :
: -542 469 -53 0 0 83 -721 -9 136 -186 55 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 56.6 52.6 1.8 1.3 0.0 7.0 13.6 0.3 9.9 9.8 8.2 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 45 :
: 13 14 . . 0 4 4 . 8 7 9 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn was lower on Friday but higher for the week in response to the USDA planted area and quarterly stocks estimates. Both reports were bullish for prices as producers planted less area to Corn than expected and as the quarterly stocks were less than expected. Futures gave back some of the gains as more moderate weather is expected in major growing areas. The forecasts are dry for the northwest and wet for central and eastern areas. It will not be as hot in the Great Plains and west4ern Midwest as it has been. Reports of damaging cold weather in Brazil also supported the market and many US places got too much rain and others not nearly enough in the last week. Temperatures got close to or just below freezing in parts of southern Brazil and on into Paraguay. There are ideas of losses to Corn in these areas, and some ideas are that the losses could be extensive in affected areas. Oats were higher. Canadian Oats areas look to be dry in the near term. Longer range forecasts released by NWS call for warmer and drier weather for many important US growing areas this Summer.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with no objectives. Support is at 588, 579, and 570 September and on the daily charts, and resistance is at 614, 626, and 629 September. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 410 September. Support is at 379, 367, and 358 September, and resistance is at 392, 401, and 403 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 29, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 2,063,095
: Positions :
: 239,075 55,250 499,823 571,099 1,142,304 567,914 125,619 1,877,912 1,822,996: 185,183 240,098
: Changes from: June 22, 2021 (Change in open interest: -351,199) :
: -12,454 1,238 -175,642 -123,668 -122,967 -25,167 -40,474 -336,932 -337,845: -14,267 -13,354
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.6 2.7 24.2 27.7 55.4 27.5 6.1 91.0 88.4: 9.0 11.6
: Total Traders: 826 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 176 96 169 373 445 54 29 675 673:
——————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed firm on the weekly charts. The highs were made early in the day and then some long liquidation and perhaps new selling hit the pits,, but futures were able to recover to close higher. Reports of big rains in much of the Midwest and forecasts for more rains in the coming week were negative, but some areas are now getting too much rain. Minnesota and northern Iowa and the Dakotas should get very little, if any, rain. Forecasts call for cooler weather this week in the Midwest and northern Great Plains, but it should generally be dry. China has started with new US Soybeans purchases for Fall delivery. The longer range forecasts from NWS call for warmer and drier than normal conditions for most Soybeans areas of the US.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 1471 August. Support is at 1396, 1381, and 1344 August, and resistance is at 1460, 1471, and 1481 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 388.00 August. Support is at 375.00, 367.00, and 361.00 August, and resistance is at 387.00, 389.00, and 397.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 6590 and 7090 August. Support is at 61220, 6140, and 6090 August, with resistance at 6560, 6590, and 6800 August.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 29, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 926,661
: Positions :
: 82,437 51,427 250,560 303,242 486,875 228,578 60,302 864,818 849,165: 61,843 77,496
: Changes from: June 22, 2021 (Change in open interest: -218,348) :
: 200 -1,107 -107,965 -76,360 -75,690 -30,720 -30,389 -214,846 -215,151: -3,502 -3,196
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.9 5.5 27.0 32.7 52.5 24.7 6.5 93.3 91.6: 6.7 8.4
: Total Traders: 590 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 151 96 160 218 260 53 21 494 474:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 29, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 577,346
: Positions :
: 51,937 33,530 157,242 176,915 328,423 155,720 30,708 541,815 549,904: 35,531 27,443
: Changes from: June 22, 2021 (Change in open interest: -54,474) :
: -7,126 -886 -23,252 -16,588 -16,806 -5,003 -9,863 -51,970 -50,807: -2,504 -3,667
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.0 5.8 27.2 30.6 56.9 27.0 5.3 93.8 95.2: 6.2 4.8
: Total Traders: 290 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 70 41 72 91 103 40 21 244 210:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 29, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 431,181
: Positions :
: 34,919 34,218 79,046 142,286 272,839 122,060 16,458 378,310 402,561: 52,871 28,620
: Changes from: June 22, 2021 (Change in open interest: -33,550) :
: -2,611 4,359 -11,144 -15,765 -20,576 -2,678 -5,881 -32,198 -33,243: -1,352 -307
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.1 7.9 18.3 33.0 63.3 28.3 3.8 87.7 93.4: 12.3 6.6
: Total Traders: 256 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 40 53 66 98 88 39 15 223 185:
——————————————————————————————————————-

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were higher Friday and higher for the week. Trends are up on both the daily and the weekly charts. The private surveyors showed more demand for last month in reports issued last week and ideas are that the stronger demand can continue as India has cut its import taxes. Canola closed higher on weather concerns and on tight current supplies. Some showers, but a lot of dry weather, is in the forecast for the Prairies this week and it remains generally dry. Demand has improved a little bit with the recently weaker prices. Soybean Oil was higher for the week on ideas of strong bio fuels demand. The demand should hold as the government is not expected to issue refinery waivers from bio fuels requirements at this time
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with no objectives. Support is at 812.00, 779.00, and 769.00 November, with resistance at 838.00, 844.00, and 850.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up with no objectives. Support is at 3700, 3680, and 3590 September, with resistance at 3880, 3930, and 4000 September.

DJ Canadian Grain Handling Summary
Winnipeg — The following are Canadian grain handling summary statistics
for the week ended June 28, 2021. Figures in thousands of metric tons.
Source: Canadian Grain Commission.
Durum
Wheat Wheat Oats Barley Flax Canola Peas Corn Total*
COMMERCIAL STOCKS
This Week 2573.5 586.4 363.6 189.3 37.2 1191.8 240.7 163.2 5811.4
Week Ago 2452.8 515.3 344.2 249.4 39.6 1229.7 279.4 188.3 5789.8
Year Ago 2335.3 593.9 223.2 358.1 56.3 1075.2 170.7 130.2 5442.4
PRODUCER DELIVERIES
This Week 440.9 127.4 46.1 34.1 2.8 276.3 17.7 1.9 986.6
Week Ago 494.1 159.6 44.7 31.5 3.3 304.4 23.6 4.4 1120.3
To Date 20439.0 5699.1 2600.8 4562.4 429.8 19185.0 3514.9 357.6 60628.4
Year Ago 20014.3 4683.2 2347.7 3607.3 335.7 18385.9 3581.9 330.8 57019.0
TERMINAL RECEIPTS
This Week 411.5 144.8 31.1 10.7 1.9 108.1 7.2 29.4 831.0
Week Ago 493.0 80.6 0.0 9.9 0.9 182.9 13.3 40.1 871.7
To Date 21350.9 6677.6 604.9 3432.3 217.1 10551.7 2501.9 1436.9 52909.4
Year Ago 18190.8 5669.6 424.2 1923.4 187.1 9810.8 2412.4 488.7 44055.8
EXPORTS
This Week 398.9 14.3 12.9 18.5 1.3 207.3 24.8 72.0 801.4
Week Ago 432.2 103.9 16.0 1.1 2.5 129.9 16.8 44.1 772.5
To Date 18243.3 5593.0 1624.8 3689.6 298.8 10041.1 2532.5 1291.0 48100.0
Year Ago 15666.3 4623.0 1451.4 1957.8 198.2 9116.2 2436.0 328.8 39494.3
DOMESTIC DISAPPEARANCE
This Week 72.8 5.4 12.1 17.8 1.2 205.4 3.4 10.7 350.2
Week Ago 58.3 27.3 13.1 21.3 1.3 207.1 4.5 12.8 381.2
To Date 3651.8 505.0 722.8 1017.4 56.7 9702.8 181.2 804.7 18131.4
Year Ago 3535.6 422.3 712.7 1439.7 48.3 9512.6 217.9 634.0 18081.0
*Totals include data from other crops not shown including rye, soybeans,
canaryseed, mustard seed, beans, lentils and chickpeas.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of June 29, 2021
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 221,740 :
: Positions :
: 155,652 168,917 8,050 6,826 3,892 25,782 8,204 6,869 4,951 11,628 14,190 :
: Changes from: June 22, 2021 :
: -6,761 -3,803 61 114 -1,955 140 1,142 -2,615 2,495 -988 -4,753 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 70.2 76.2 3.6 3.1 1.8 11.6 3.7 3.1 2.2 5.2 6.4 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 307 :
: 65 68 4 5 . 44 12 9 57 85 34 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry north and west, showers and storms south and east. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June July May May May
July July July July
Augustg July July July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jul 2
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 911.70 72.20 July 2021 up 37.20
Basis: Thunder Bay 870.90 40.00 Nov. 2021 up 19.20
Basis: Vancouver 900.90 70.00 Nov. 2021 up 19.20
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Note: Canadian markets were closed July 1 for the Canada Day
holiday.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – July 6
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 1042.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Aug 1022.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Sep 1007.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 947.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 1045.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Aug 1025.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Sep 1010.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 950.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 1020.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 980.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 4,000.00 -50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 300.00 +01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.154)

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322