About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. May Coffee, Cocoa Imports-July 2
In kilograms from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to pounds
by Dow Jones.
—-May 2021—- —-Apr 2021—-
-coffee- kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
coffee, unroasted 133,812,040 295,055,548 112,697,583 248,498,171
coffee, roasted 8,600,566 18,964,248 9,556,723 21,072,574
coffee, soluble
instant 4,277,546 9,431,989 4,707,695 10,380,467
-Cocoa-
cocoa beans 44,290,997 97,661,648 69,235,568 152,664,427
sweetened bars/block
10 lbs or over 2,446,498 5,394,528 2,654,122 5,852,339
for retail candy 0 0 0 0
cocoa butter 8,479,241 18,696,726 7,427,783 16,378,262
cocoa paste,
not defatted 5,283,417 11,649,934 5,748,624 12,675,716
cocoa paste
defatted 2,273,050 5,012,075 5,084,466 11,211,248
cocoa powder,
unsweetened 9,188,555 20,260,764 9,421,426 20,774,244
cocoa powder,
sweetened 46,008 101,448 15,007 33,090
confectioners
coating 5,062,599 11,163,031 5,761,507 12,704,123
candy containing
chocolate 9,969,711 21,983,213 9,366,727 20,653,633

COTTON
General Comments: Futures were higher yesterday. USDA said that planted area was 11.577 million acres, down from the March intentions but still higher than trade expectations. Cotton growing conditions have improved in the last couple of weeks with rains reported in West Texas and perhaps flooding rains the Delta. The Southeast missed the biggest rains and East Texas has been dry. West Texas is expected to dry down this week but the Delta could get some big storms. Some scattered showers are in the forecast in the Southeast.
Overnight News: The Delta will get scattered showers and near to below normal temperatures and Southeast will get scattered showers and near to below normal temperatures. Texas will have scattered showers and below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 82.38 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 126,034 bales, from 135,200 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for July delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 115 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 8470, 8400, and 8340 December, with resistance of 8700, 8790 and 8830 December.

DJ U.S. May Cotton Exports-Jul 2
In kilograms and in running 480-pound bales. Source. U.S. Department
Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
May 21 Apr 21 Mar 21 Apr 20
Upland, under 1 inch 13,752,536 15,961,073 29,075,913 13,370,952
1 to 1 1/8 inch 133,890,066 122,558,363 125,686,165 77,033,698
upland 1 1/8 and over 9,303,859 11,375,836 9,759,875 177,268,691
Amer pima, over 1 1/8 inc 199,395,305 195,222,401 191,947,541 1,811,168
All cotton 356,341,766 345,117,673 356,469,494 269,484,509
——- In Running 480-Pound Bales ——-
May 21 Apr 21 Mar 21 May 20
Upland, under 1 inch 63,165 73,309 133,545 61,412
1 to 1 1/8 inch 614,952 562,906 577,272 353,813
upland 1 1/8 and over 42,732 52,249 44,827 814,188
Amer pima, over 1 1/8 inc 915,815 896,649 881,608 8,319
All cotton 1,636,664 1,585,113 1,637,251 1,237,732

DJ On-Call Cotton – Jul 1
As of Jun 25. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or
purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts
of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.
Source: CFTC
*-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from
last week.
Call Previous Change Call Previous Change
Sales Purchases
May 21 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jul 21 80 3,831 -3,751 0 1,176 -1,176
Oct 21 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 21 52,801 49,727 3,074 24,219 23,780 439
Mar 22 23,559 21,307 2,252 5,795 5,170 625
May 22 10,703 9,206 1,497 1,017 995 22
Jul 22 26,135 24,668 1,467 3,598 3,392 206
Dec 22 7,459 6,586 873 10,103 10,022 81
Mar 23 1,412 1,236 176 246 176 70
May 23 18 18 0 0 0 0
Jul 23 18 18 0 0 0 0
Dec 23 40 40 0 659 659 0
Jul 24 0 0 0 220 220 0
Dec 24 0 0 0 220 220 0
Total 122,225 116,637 5,588 46,077 45,810 267
Open Open Change
Int Int
May 21 0 0 0
Jul 21 5 6,984 -6,979
Oct 21 280 194 86
Dec 21 144,579 139,802 4,777
Mar 22 36,632 33,671 2,961
May 22 7,317 6,620 697
Jul 22 9,812 9,330 482
Dec 22 12,267 11,832 435
Mar 23 182 182 0
May 23 3 3 0
Jul 23 3 3 0
Dec 23 3 3 0
Jul 24 0 0 0
Dec 24 0 0 0
Total 211,083 208,624 2,459

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher again yesterday on follow through buying and chart trends are turning up on the daily charts. There are some tropical storms in the Atlantic and one is likely to move into Florida. Elsa is currently near the Windward Islands and could pass over Cuba and then into Florida, but there are not likely to be damaging winds from the system. The state could get excessive rainfall. A big storm could threaten trees and fruit. Brazil is reported to be in good condition, but dry. It has been cold but any damage is called minor. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production. Northern and western Mexico are getting some rains.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers and above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 131.00 September. Support is at 124.00, 133.00, and 120.00 September, with resistance at 128.00, 130.00, and 132.00 September.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York closed lower after another night reports of cold weather in Brazil. There were no reports of significant damage and temperatures are likely to warm in the next couple of nights. It is still cold with frost possible and a little bit of damage is possible this week. The move in New York comes as the Brazil crop is coming to the market. It looks like demand is moderate for Robusta these days, and the offers are starting to increase as the Arabica harvest is expanding in Brazil. Good conditions are reported in northern South America and good conditions reported in Central America. Colombia is having trouble exporting Coffee right now due to protests inside the country. Conditions are reported to be generally good in Asia and Africa. London was higher.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 2.171 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 141.53 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with below normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE said that 21 contracts were posted for delivery today against NY July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 353 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of `168.00 September. Support is at 155.00, 153.00, and 152.00 September, and resistance is at 158.00, 165.00 and 168.00 September. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1730 September. Support is at 1620, 1600, and 1580 September, and resistance is at 1720, 1730, and 1760 September.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London were higher as Brazil remained cold. It was cold enough to damage Sugarcane crops in the central south of Brazil. Warmer temperatures are now likely. Mills were also processing for more Ethanol and less for Sugar than expected. London has been the leader to the downside on ample supplies of White Sugar available to the market. There is plenty of White Sugar available in India for the market and monsoon rains are promoting good conditions for the next crop. Thailand is expecting improved production. Sugar demand is said to be weak. Ethanol demand is returning to the market as more world economies open up after the pandemic.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. ICE said that 2,587 contracts were delivered against July futures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 1830 October. Support is at 1770, 1740, and 1720 October, and resistance is at 1790, 1820, and 1850 October. Trends in London are up with objectives of 474.00 October. Support is at 460.00, 450.00, and 445.00 October, and resistance is at 477.00, 482.00, and 488.00 October.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed lower in range trading. The daily charts still show mixed trends in both markets. Ports in West Africa are filled with Cocoa right now as demand remains lackluster. The weather has had above average rains in West Africa and crop conditions are rated good. European demand has been slow and demand ideas in general are weak. The supplies are there for any increased demand.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.837 million bags. ICE said that 22 contracts were posted for July delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 263 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2320, 2300, and 2280 September, with resistance at 2410, 2430, and 2480 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1600, 1590, and 1570 September, with resistance at 1640, 1650, and 1670 September.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322