Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Futures were lower yesterday as USDA reported more planted area than the trade had expected. USDA said that planted area was 11.577 million acres, down from the March intentions but still higher than trade expectations. Cotton growing conditions have improved in the last couple of weeks with rains reported in West Texas and perhaps flooding rains the Delta. The Southeast missed the biggest rains and East Texas has been dry. West Texas is expected to dry down this week but the Delta could get some big storms. Some scattered showers are in the forecast in the Southeast.
Overnight News: The Delta will get scattered showers late this week and near normal temperatures and Southeast will get scattered showers and near to below normal temperatures. Texas will have scattered showers and below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 81.40 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 135,200 bales, from 135,200 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for July delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 115 contracts. USDA said that net Upland Cotton export sales were 42,500 bales this year and 133,900 bales next year. Net Pima sales were 2,200 bales this year and 100 bales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 8400, 8340, and 8300 December, with resistance of 8590, 8700 and 8790 December.
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher yesterday in recovery trading and chart trends are still mixed on the daily charts. There are some tropical storms in the Atlantic but they do not appear likely to move into Florida. The hurricane season is here and a big storm could threaten trees and fruit. An active season is anticipated but that does not mean a big and damaging storm is coming. It does mean that the market will be on alert if one does show up. Brazil is reported to be in good condition, but dry. It has been cold but any damage is called minor. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production. Northern and western Mexico are getting some rains.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers and above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 120.00, 118.00, and 116.00 September, with resistance at 125.00, 128.00, and 130.00 September.
General Comments: New York closed lower after another night reports of cold weather in Brazil. It turned cooler and drier in Brazil over the weekend but there were no reports of damage. It is still cold with frost possible and a little bit of damage is possible this week. The move in New York comes as the Brazil crop is coming to the market. It looks like demand is moderate for Robusta these days, and the offers are starting to increase as the Arabica harvest is expanding in Brazil. Good conditions are reported in northern South America and good conditions reported in Central America. Colombia is having trouble exporting Coffee right now due to protests inside the country. Conditions are reported to be generally good in Asia and Africa. London was higher.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 2.189 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 145.24 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with below normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE said that 0 contracts were posted for delivery today against NY July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 332 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of `168.00 September. Support is at 158.00, 155.00, and 153.00 September, and resistance is at 165.00, 168.00 and 171.00 September. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1730 September. Support is at 1620, 1600, and 1580 September, and resistance is at 1720, 1730, and 1760 September.
DJ Brazil Coffee Harvest Nears Halfway Point — Market Talk
0902 ET – Brazilian coffee growers had finished harvesting 48% of the estimated crop for the 2021-2022 growing season as of June 29, the same figure as last year on that date but behind the five-year average of 51%, according to agricultural consultancy Safras & Mercado. The group expects the country’s farmers to produce 56.5 million 132-pound bags of coffee in 2021, and 26.9 million bags had been harvested as of Tuesday, Safras said. Dry weather has helped speed work in the field, Safras said. (email@example.com)
General Comments: New York and London were higher as Brazil remained cold. It was cold enough to damage Sugarcane crops in the central south of Brazil.. Mills were also processing for more Ethanol and less for Sugar than expected. London has been the leader to the downside on ample supplies of White Sugar available to the market. There is plenty of White Sugar available in India for the market and monsoon rains are promoting good conditions for the next crop. Thailand is expecting improved production. Sugar demand is said to be weak. Ethanol demand is returning to the market as more world economies open up after the pandemic.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 1830 October. Support is at 1740, 1720, and 1700 October, and resistance is at 1810, 1850, and 1880 October. Trends in London are up with objectives of 474.00 October. Support is at 460.00, 450.00, and 445.00 October, and resistance is at 472.00, 476.00, and 482.00 October.
General Comments: New York closed slightly lower and London closed higher in range trading. The daily charts show mixed trends in both markets. Ports in West Africa are filled with Cocoa right now as demand remains lackluster. The weather has had above average rains in West Africa and crop conditions are rated good. European demand has been slow and demand ideas in general are weak. The supplies are there for any increased demand.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are sharply higher today at 5.859 million bags. ICE said that 10 contracts were posted for July delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 241 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2320, 2300, and 2280 September, with resistance at 2410, 2430, and 2480 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1600, 1590, and 1570 September, with resistance at 1640, 1650, and 1670 September.