About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ USDA Report: Summary for June Acreage
The following are key numbers from the USDA’s U.S. Grain, Soybean Planted
Acreage report and how the government’s estimates compared with analysts’
forecasts in a Wall Street Journal survey.
U.S. Grain, Soybean Planting (million acres)
Wednesday’s USDA USDA
Estimate Average Range March 2020
Corn 92.692 93.818 92.0-95.8 91.144 90.819
Soybeans 87.555 89.150 87.9-90.6 87.600 83.084
All Wheat 46.743 45.951 45.0-46.9 46.358 44.349
Winter Wheat 33.683 33.048 32.2-33.3 33.078 30.415
Spring Wheat 11.580 11.435 10.5-12.2 11.740 12.250
Durum Wheat 1.480 1.519 1.4-1.6 1.540 1.684

DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Quarterly Grain Stocks
The following are key numbers from the USDA’s Quarterly Grain, Soybean Stockpiles and how the government’s estimates compared with analysts’ forecasts in a Wall Street Journal survey.
U.S. Stockpiles on June 1, 2021 (million bushels)
Wednesday’s USDA USDA
Estimate Average Range June 1 2020 Mar 2021
Corn 4,112 4,204 4,001- 4,650 5,003 7,696
Soybeans 767 795 740- 952 1,381 1,562
Wheat 844 858 770- 965 1,028 1,311

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Jul 1
For the week ended Jun 24, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 226.3 0.0 6400.1 7164.1 5238.4 0.0
hrw 91.2 0.0 2068.8 2771.5 1549.4 0.0
srw 17.9 0.0 1071.6 579.1 1039.8 0.0
hrs 93.8 0.0 1915.7 2085.3 1562.6 0.0
white 23.5 0.0 1309.3 1418.1 1078.2 0.0
durum 0.0 0.0 34.7 310.0 8.4 0.0
corn 15.0 67.6 69547.1 42313.5 12147.5 15748.3
soybeans 92.8 1670.1 61840.6 44821.8 3567.7 9279.4
soymeal 232.8 184.5 11238.8 11063.2 2288.2 856.0
soyoil 2.3 0.0 677.9 1189.3 26.1 0.6
upland cotton 42.6 133.9 16064.1 16992.9 2425.4 2427.1
pima cotton 2.2 0.1 822.3 574.4 121.5 4.1
sorghum 4.0 0.0 7230.1 4156.5 893.1 1594.9
barley 0.0 0.0 24.8 41.6 23.7 0.0
rice 15.6 20.2 3325.5 3310.3 446.0 20.2

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jul 1
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN OIL July Jul 02, 2021 264 Jun 25, 2021
ROUGH RICE July Jul 02, 2021 73 Jun 30, 2021
OATS July Jul 02, 2021 8 Jun 29, 2021
SOYBEAN July Jul 02, 2021 13 Apr 22, 2021
WHEAT July Jul 02, 2021 20 Jun 16, 2021

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher yesterday in reaction to the USDA reports. The stocks report showed less Wheat than forecast by the trade, but the planted area report showed more had been planted than the trade had expected. Increased area was noted for Winter Wheat and Spring Wheat. Trends turned up in the Winter Wheat markets with the news. Dry weather is still forecast for Spring Wheat areas, but Minneapolis closed lower Hard Red Winter closed a little higher. The Winter Wheat harvest is ongoing. Winter Wheat yield reports are strong, so the supply will likely be good once the harvest is complete. There have been some rains in the region to keep the harvest pressure on the slow side but the quality seems good. However, the Spring Wheat situation is different and a short crop is increasingly likely. More rain is possible later this week, but Spring Wheat areas could get shortchanged again.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 695 September. Support is at 658, 637, and 632 September, with resistance at 687, 699, and 708 September. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 681 September. Support is at 630, 619, and 611 September, with resistance at 655, 662, and 670 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 820, 796, and 780 September, and resistance is at 860, 864, and 870 September.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed a little lower after trading higher in reaction to the USDA reports. The plantings report showed more plated area than the industry had expected and is not generally believed in the cash market. The industry thinks that planted area is lower and perhaps much lower. The stocks report showed that there is still a lot of Rice out there. The daily charts show mixed trends. Mostly dry conditions and warmer temperatures are currently forecast for southern US growing areas, but Louisiana and Mississippi got a tropical storm moving through this past weekend. Rice areas have generally been wet and northern areas have been cool, but better conditions are appearing this week. Louisiana and parts of Mississippi were saturated but it is drier now. Some big storms are in the forecast for the rest of the week. Warm temperatures are reported in Arkansas and Missouri and the crop progress is improving. However, it is still very wet in Arkansas and farmer progress has been limited for the last couple of weeks. World prices \were mostly a little lower last week.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1336, 1331, and 1311 September, with resistance at 1358, 1371, and 1380 September.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn was sharply higher to limit up in reaction to the USDA reports that showed less planted area and less stocks than anticipated by the trade. The report was a bullish shock to the market and less planted area means that weather will need to be even better to produce top yields from now on. The increased area was primarily in the northern Great Plains and northwestern Midwest and in the Delta and Southeast. Reports of and forecasts for more cold weather in Brazil also supported the market and many US places got too much rain and others not nearly enough in the last week. Temperatures got close to or just below freezing in parts of southern Brazil and on into Paraguay. There are ideas of losses to Corn in these areas, and some ideas are that the losses could be extensive in affected areas. Rains late last week and last weekend were very big in central Illinois, northern Missouri, and into Indiana and Ohio. As much as 8.00 inches fell in some locations but some areas in the northwest of the Midwest and into the northern Great Plains got much less. More was coming this week. As much as 2.00 to 4.00 inches of rain is possible, with more forecast for a few areas, mostly in central and eastern areas but also somewhat in the west. Oats were higher. Canadian Oats areas look to be dry in the near term. Hot and dry conditions continue in central and northern Brazil for Corn there. Longer range forecasts released by NWS call for warmer and drier weather for many important US growing areas this Summer.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 611 September. Support is at 579, 570, and 555 September, and resistance is at 604, 614, and 629 September. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 410 September. Support is at 384, 380, and 367 September, and resistance is at 391, 401, and 403 September.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed sharply yesterday in reaction to the USDA reports. USDA showed a slight reduction in planted area from the March report and was less than trade expectations. The stocks report was also less than trade expectations. Both reports were bullish shocks for the market and chart trends are now up. Reports of big rains in much of the Midwest and forecasts for more rains in the coming week were negative, but some areas are now getting too much rain. Rains up to 8.00 inches were reported in parts of Missouri and Illinois and big rains fell mostly east of the Mississippi River, but also west in eastern and southern Iowa and northern Missouri. These areas are in line for more rain this week. Minnesota and northern Iowa and the Dakotas should get very little, if any, rain. Forecasts call for cooler weather this week in the Midwest and northern Great Plains. China has started with new US Soybeans purchases for Fall delivery. The longer range forecasts from NWS call for warmer and drier than normal conditions for most Soybeans areas of the US.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 1471 August. Support is at 1396, 1381, and 1344 August, and resistance is at 1438, 1471, and 1481 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 388.00 August. Support is at 367.00, 361.00, and 356.00 August, and resistance is at 372.00, 389.00, and 397.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 6590 and 7090 August. Support is at 6090, 5780, and 5360 August, with resistance at 6560, 6800, and 7030 August.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were higher yesterday in response to bullish export dater from the private sources. It was higher today on ideas that strong exports can continue. India cut its import tariffs which helped demand ideas. News that Indonesia was contemplating a reduction in the export tax was also bad for prices. The private surveyors showed more demand so far this month in reports issued on Friday. The reports provoked the stronger Friday close. Canola closed higher on Chicago price action, weather concerns, and on tight current supplies. Some showers, but a lot of dry weather, is in the forecast for the Prairies this week and it remains generally dry. Demand has backed off with the collapse in world vegetable oils prices, but supplies remain tight in the country.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with no objectives. Support is at 779.00, 769.00, and 766.00 November, with resistance at 814.00, 820.00, and 826.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 3620 and 3720 September. Support is at 3570, 3450, and 3420 September, with resistance at 3700, 3750, and 3780 September.

DJ Malaysia Palm Oil Exports Rose 10.8% on June 1-30, SGS Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the June 1-30 period are estimated to have risen 10.8% on month to 1,546,014 metric tons, cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. said Thursday.
The following are the major items in the SGS estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
June 1-30 May 1-31
RBD Palm Olein 471,850 399,915
RBD Palm Oil 97,190 103,873
RBD Palm Stearin 111,740 96,254
Crude Palm Oil 401,555 411,569
Total* 1,546,014 1,395,791
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included
SGS Malaysia is a division of the Switzerland-based Societe Generale de Surveillance Group. This content was automatically published based on data and/or text from the original source. For feedback, write to singaporeeditors@dowjones.com.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry north and west, showers and storms south and east. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June July May May May
July July July July
Augustg July July July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jun 30
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 874.50 90.10 July 2021 up 25.10
Basis: Thunder Bay 851.70 40.00 Nov. 2021 up 17.10
Basis: Vancouver 881.70 70.00 Nov. 2021 up 17.10
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – July 1
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 1022.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Aug 987.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Sept 942.50 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 907.50 +17.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 1025.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Aug 990.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Sept 945.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 910.00 +17.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 980.00 +22.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 950.00 +22.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 3,900.00 +70.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 294.00 +04.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.156)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jul 01
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 280,144 lots, or 15.82 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-21 5,523 5,650 5,456 5,650 5,513 5,588 75 218 1,109
Sep-21 5,530 5,720 5,530 5,657 5,545 5,631 86 204,274 126,407
Nov-21 5,580 5,788 5,578 5,693 5,590 5,683 93 55,389 51,786
Jan-22 5,618 5,791 5,606 5,724 5,615 5,695 80 9,581 22,029
Mar-22 5,630 5,764 5,620 5,734 5,626 5,728 102 10,472 11,622
May-22 5,682 5,795 5,671 5,768 5,667 5,741 74 210 690
Corn
Turnover: 895,799 lots, or 23.50 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-21 2,620 2,620 2,578 2,600 2,588 2,600 12 8 3,510
Sep-21 2,613 2,657 2,600 2,621 2,614 2,624 10 600,026 573,397
Nov-21 2,601 2,647 2,592 2,616 2,605 2,611 6 133,298 241,613
Jan-22 2,609 2,659 2,605 2,630 2,618 2,629 11 101,850 198,492
Mar-22 2,620 2,650 2,608 2,637 2,620 2,631 11 56,331 46,181
May-22 2,622 2,656 2,617 2,647 2,626 2,640 14 4,286 11,160
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,160,044 lots, or 77.22 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-21 3,424 3,570 3,424 3,550 3,429 3,459 30 512 5,518
Aug-21 3,481 3,648 3,467 3,637 3,481 3,575 94 9,906 4,349
Sep-21 3,486 3,650 3,464 3,639 3,471 3,587 116 1,479,674 1,151,617
Nov-21 3,490 3,667 3,483 3,659 3,488 3,608 120 54,053 50,734
Dec-21 3,489 3,655 3,482 3,645 3,490 3,584 94 22,449 24,691
Jan-22 3,461 3,635 3,448 3,623 3,463 3,580 117 468,667 501,040
Mar-22 3,307 3,480 3,300 3,463 3,312 3,394 82 95,688 250,645
May-22 3,268 3,415 3,254 3,409 3,287 3,364 77 29,095 42,488
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,170,761 lots, or 85.58 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-21 8,550 8,550 8,550 8,550 7,918 8,550 632 2 49
Aug-21 7,490 7,708 7,490 7,660 7,448 7,606 158 6 90
Sep-21 7,190 7,492 7,176 7,480 7,176 7,344 168 1,016,385 406,977
Oct-21 7,072 7,360 7,072 7,356 7,088 7,248 160 27,143 29,066
Nov-21 7,038 7,290 7,020 7,282 7,038 7,140 102 16,465 39,059
Dec-21 6,940 7,204 6,934 7,204 6,966 7,090 124 13,408 47,168
Jan-22 6,850 7,128 6,850 7,116 6,900 7,016 116 85,508 98,634
Feb-22 6,874 7,092 6,838 7,086 6,874 7,016 142 5,028 6,342
Mar-22 6,878 7,090 6,826 7,078 6,868 6,994 126 3,109 3,053
Apr-22 6,886 7,092 6,826 7,080 6,880 6,992 112 2,199 2,338
May-22 6,834 7,086 6,826 7,078 6,874 6,954 80 1,502 4,375
Jun-22 7,044 7,078 7,032 7,078 6,844 7,048 204 6 14
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,255,081 lots, or 10.51 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-21 – – – 8,624 8,624 8,624 0 50 514
Aug-21 8,438 8,438 8,296 8,296 8,350 8,366 16 2 150
Sep-21 8,250 8,534 8,232 8,514 8,238 8,394 156 1,070,642 413,365
Nov-21 8,156 8,446 8,144 8,434 8,160 8,316 156 42,980 48,304
Dec-21 8,106 8,394 8,094 8,376 8,126 8,208 82 17,801 75,196
Jan-22 8,066 8,352 8,052 8,342 8,072 8,226 154 115,993 139,431
Mar-22 7,954 8,218 7,938 8,200 7,954 8,144 190 4,719 13,198
May-22 7,796 8,048 7,748 8,048 7,792 7,936 144 2,894 5,251
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
This content was automatically published based on data and/or text from the original source. For feedback, write to singaporeeditors@dowjones.com.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322