About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ Survey: Jun. 1 Quarterly Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates
The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for June 1 quarterly U.S. grain and soybean stockpiles, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated tables at noon ET on Wednesday.
U.S. Stockpiles on June 1, 2021 (million bushels)
USDA USDA
Average Range June 1 2020 Mar 2021
Corn 4,204 4,001-4,650 5,003 7,701
Soybeans 795 740-952 1,382 1,564
Wheat 858 770-965 1,028 1,314
Corn Soybeans Wheat
AgriSompo North America 4,650 815 965
Allendale 4,083 786 847
DC Analysis 4,014 763 841
Doane 4,049 755 862
EDFMan Capital 4,050 740 840
Futures INTL 4,037 770 843
Grain Cycles 4,325 770 845
Linn Group 4,001 785 835
Sid Love Consulting 4,366 800 845
Midland Research 4,132 795 837
Northstar 4,150 760 875
Prime-Ag 4,100 750 872
RJ O’Brien 4,110 755 838
RMC 4,546 952 770
StoneX 4,196 784 843
US Commodities 4,049 758
Vantage RM 4,525 940 960
Western Milling 4,057 790 862
Zaner Ag Hedge 4,431 838 866

DJ Survey: 2021 U.S. Grain, Soybean Planted Acreage Estimates
The following are analysts’ estimates, in millions of acres, for U.S. grain and soybean planted acreage, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated tables at noon ET on Wednesday.
U.S. Grain, Soybean Planted Acreage USDA USDA
(million acres) Average Range March 2020
Corn 93.818 92.0-95.8 91.144 90.819
Soybeans 89.150 87.9-90.6 87.600 83.084
All Wheat 45.951 45.0-46.9 46.358 44.349
Winter Wheat 33.048 32.2-33.3 33.078 30.415
Spring Wheat 11.435 10.5-12.2 11.740 12.250
Durum Wheat 1.519 1.4-1.6 1.540 1.684
Winter Spring Durum
Corn Soybeans Wheat Wheat Wheat Wheat
AgriSompo North America 93.2 90.6 45.2
Allendale 93.5 88.6 46.3 33.3 11.4 1.5
DC Analysis 93.6 88.5 46.2 33.1 11.6 1.5
Doane 93.6 88.7 46.0 33.1 11.3 1.6
EDFMan Capital 94.0 89.0 45.0 32.2 11.4 1.4
Futures INTL 93.5 89.5 33.1 11.7 1.5
Grain Cycles 94.0 90.0 46.1 33.1 11.5 1.5
Linn Group 94.1 89.0 46.4 11.6 1.6
Sid Love Consulting 92.0 89.0 45.9 33.2 11.3 1.4
Midland Research 93.1 88.8 46.3 33.1 11.6 1.6
Midwest Market Solutions 94.3 87.9 45.8 33.0 11.2 1.5
Northstar 93.4 88.5 46.0 33.1 11.4 1.5
Prime-Ag 94.5 89.5 45.0 10.5
RJ O’Brien 93.5 89.3 46.0 33.1 11.4 1.5
RMC 93.2 88.1 45.9 33.1 11.3 1.5
StoneX 92.9 89.5 46.0 33.1 11.3 1.6
US Commodities 95.8 90.4
Vantage RM 94.7 89.0 46.4 33.1 11.7 1.5
Western Milling 94.0 89.0 45.9 33.1 11.4 1.4
Zaner Ag Hedge 95.6 90.2 46.9 12.2 1.6

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jun 30
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN OIL July Jul 01, 2021 427 Jun 25, 2021
ROUGH RICE July Jul 01, 2021 300 Jun 29, 2021
OATS July Jul 01, 2021 9 Jun 28, 2021
SOYBEAN July Jul 01, 2021 13 Feb 25, 2021

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were mostly lower yesterday as the Winter Wheat harvest made good progress last week amid mostly good conditions. Dry weather is still forecast for Spring Wheat areas, but Minneapolis closed lower Hard Red Winter closed a little higher. The Winter Wheat harvest is ongoing. Winter Wheat yield reports are strong, so the supply will likely be good once the harvest is complete. There have been some rains in the region to keep the harvest pressure on the slow side but the quality seems good. However, the Spring Wheat situation is different and a short crop is increasingly likely. More rain is possible later this week, but Spring Wheat areas could get shortchanged again. Chart trends are sideways in the Winter Wheat markets but are still up in Minneapolis.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 637, 628, and 621 September, with resistance at 663, 676, and 680 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 620, 605, and 593 September, with resistance at 643, 655, and 662 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 796, 780, and 762 September, and resistance is at 846, 857, and 864 September.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed a little higher before the USDA reports today. Ideas are that USDA could show less Rice planted area as it is much less profitable to grow than corn and soybeans and due to some problems with weather at planting time. The daily charts show mixed trends. Mostly dry conditions and warmer temperatures are currently forecast for southern US growing areas, but Louisiana and Mississippi got a tropical storm moving through this past weekend. Rice areas have generally been wet and northern areas have been cool, but better conditions are appearing this week. Louisiana and parts of Mississippi were saturated but it is drier now. Some big storms are in the forecast for the rest of the week. Warm temperatures are reported in Arkansas and Missouri and the crop progress is improving. However, it is still very wet in Arkansas and farmer progress has been limited for the last couple of weeks. World prices \were mostly a little lower last week.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1336, 1331, and 1311 September, with resistance at 1358, 1371, and 1389 September.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Jun 30
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 16.79 10.74 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 16.42 10.97 0.00
Brokens 10.65 —- —-

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn was a little higher on reports of and forecasts for more cold weather in Brazil and as many US places got too much rain and others not nearly enough. Temperatures got close to or just below freezing in parts of southern Brazil and on into Paraguay. There are ideas of losses to Corn in these areas, and some ideas are that the losses could be extensive in affected areas. Rains late last week and last weekend were very big in central Illinois, northern Missouri, and into Indiana and Ohio. As much as 8.00 inches fell in some locations but some areas in the northwest of the Midwest and into the northern Great Plains got much less. More was coming this week. As much as 2.00 to 4.00 inches of rain is possible, with more forecast for a few areas, mostly in central and eastern areas but also somewhat in the west. Oats were higher. Canadian Oats areas look to be dry in the near term. Hot and dry conditions continue in central and northern Brazil for Corn there. Longer range forecasts released by NWS call for warmer and drier weather for many important US growing areas this Summer.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 583 and 611 September. Support is at 555, 528, and 516 September, and resistance is at 579, 585, and 604 September. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 410 September. Support is at 380, 367, and 358 September, and resistance is at 391, 401, and 403 September.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed mixed yesterday, with Soybean Meal lower and Soybean Oil higher on reports of big rains in much of the Midwest and forecasts for more rains in the coming week. Rains up to 8.00 inches were reported in parts of Missouri and Illinois and big rains fell mostly east of the Mississippi River, but also west in eastern and southern Iowa and northern Missouri. These areas are in line for more rain this week. Minnesota and northern Iowa and the Dakotas should get very little, if any, rain. Forecasts call for cooler weather this week in the Midwest and northern Great Plains. China has started with new US Soybeans purchases for Fall delivery. The longer range forecasts from NWS call for warmer and drier than normal conditions for most Soybeans areas of the US.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1299, 1289, and 1276 August, and resistance is at 1366, 1381, and 1400 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 347.00, 341.00, and 338.00 August, and resistance is at 356.00, 361.00, and 367.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 6590 and 7090 August. Support is at 6090, 5780, and 5360 August, with resistance at 6370, 6530, and 6800 August.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were higher Friday in anticipation of bullish export dater from the private sources later this week. News that Indonesia was contemplating a reduction in the export tax was also bad for prices. The private surveyors showed more demand so far this month in reports issued on Friday. The reports provoked the stronger Friday close. Canola closed higher on weather concerns and on tight current supplies. Some showers, but a lot of dry weather, is in the forecast for the Prairies this week and it remains generally dry. Demand has backed off with the collapse in world vegetable oils prices, but supplies remain tight in the country. July had trended lower on the lack of demand but rebounded last week on the lack of supply.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with no objectives. Support is at 779.00, 769.00, and 737.00 November, with resistance at 814.00, 820.00, and 826.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3420, 3380, and 3350 September, with resistance at 3590, 3700, and 3750 September.

DJ Malaysia June 1-30 Palm Oil Exports 1,545,780 Tons, Up 8.6%, AmSpec Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the June 1-30 period are estimated up 8.6% on month at 1,545,780 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Wednesday.
The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
June 1-30 May 1-31
RBD Palm Olein 466,120 356,487
RBD Palm Oil 91,185 115,730
RBD Palm Stearin 112,050 96,215
Crude Palm Oil 410,955 477,519
Total* 1,545,780 1,423,104
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry north and west, showers and storms south and east. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June July May May May
July July July July
Augustg July July July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jun 29
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 874.50 95.00 July 2021 up 30.00
Basis: Thunder Bay 834.60 40.00 Nov. 2021 up 25.10
Basis: Vancouver 864.60 70.00 Nov. 2021 up 25.10
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – June 30
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 1007.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Aug 982.50 +32.50 Unquoted – –
Sept 922.50 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 890.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 1010.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Aug 985.00 +32.50 Unquoted – –
Sept 925.00 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 892.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 957.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 927.50 +17.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 3,830.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 290.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.150)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jun 30
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 182,183 lots, or 10.13 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-21 5,518 5,541 5,488 5,528 5,481 5,513 32 641 1,426
Sep-21 5,545 5,570 5,522 5,561 5,494 5,545 51 136,490 152,802
Nov-21 5,580 5,613 5,564 5,600 5,537 5,590 53 33,212 43,028
Jan-22 5,620 5,637 5,591 5,632 5,565 5,615 50 5,660 22,606
Mar-22 5,619 5,649 5,605 5,639 5,580 5,626 46 6,052 10,228
May-22 5,670 5,690 5,651 5,680 5,630 5,667 37 128 694
Corn
Turnover: 547,174 lots, or 14.30 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-21 2,624 2,632 2,570 2,582 2,624 2,588 -36 3,518 4,013
Sep-21 2,622 2,625 2,606 2,613 2,621 2,614 -7 347,822 566,391
Nov-21 2,615 2,616 2,598 2,602 2,611 2,605 -6 84,593 240,620
Jan-22 2,637 2,637 2,611 2,615 2,625 2,618 -7 62,268 186,047
Mar-22 2,628 2,629 2,613 2,617 2,631 2,620 -11 46,568 44,829
May-22 2,635 2,635 2,617 2,627 2,635 2,626 -9 2,405 11,095
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,225,405 lots, or 42.41 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-21 3,411 3,475 3,411 3,440 3,413 3,429 16 3,121 6,546
Aug-21 3,482 3,512 3,461 3,484 3,469 3,481 12 56,043 12,093
Sep-21 3,474 3,499 3,445 3,486 3,455 3,471 16 811,367 1,123,267
Nov-21 3,484 3,515 3,468 3,505 3,474 3,488 14 53,217 54,247
Dec-21 3,477 3,513 3,475 3,501 3,477 3,490 13 19,136 25,526
Jan-22 3,469 3,482 3,424 3,473 3,448 3,463 15 200,777 484,367
Mar-22 3,319 3,453 3,255 3,323 3,300 3,312 12 68,886 249,000
May-22 3,265 3,480 3,244 3,278 3,253 3,287 34 12,858 40,154
Palm Oil
Turnover: 980,733 lots, or 70.15 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-21 7,892 8,000 7,868 7,926 7,844 7,918 74 14 51
Aug-21 7,410 7,490 7,370 7,490 7,312 7,448 136 17 93
Sep-21 7,144 7,232 7,108 7,230 7,042 7,176 134 880,665 383,139
Oct-21 7,052 7,136 7,032 7,132 6,966 7,088 122 15,078 23,587
Nov-21 7,002 7,068 6,984 7,068 6,908 7,038 130 4,780 37,524
Dec-21 6,998 6,998 6,920 6,974 6,834 6,966 132 4,285 46,627
Jan-22 6,874 6,946 6,850 6,908 6,784 6,900 116 71,388 105,469
Feb-22 6,848 6,912 6,816 6,888 6,772 6,874 102 1,305 5,379
Mar-22 6,840 6,922 6,824 6,848 6,742 6,868 126 1,005 2,561
Apr-22 6,882 6,914 6,832 6,864 6,768 6,880 112 718 1,992
May-22 6,820 6,928 6,820 6,872 6,774 6,874 100 1,476 4,182
Jun-22 6,842 6,846 6,842 6,846 6,810 6,844 34 2 10
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,079,625 lots, or 88.73 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-21 8,528 8,764 8,528 8,764 8,528 8,624 96 102 464
Aug-21 8,344 8,414 8,290 8,414 8,152 8,350 198 5 150
Sep-21 8,244 8,292 8,178 8,282 8,118 8,238 120 925,060 396,928
Nov-21 8,160 8,202 8,104 8,194 8,046 8,160 114 40,316 43,802
Dec-21 8,208 8,208 8,064 8,148 7,996 8,126 130 11,294 77,556
Jan-22 8,066 8,114 8,020 8,102 7,962 8,072 110 99,503 137,333
Mar-22 7,932 7,990 7,908 7,990 7,836 7,954 118 2,088 13,243
May-22 7,790 7,826 7,752 7,800 7,690 7,792 102 1,257 5,236
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322