Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
Wheat: Wheat markets were mixed Friday as dry weather is st4ill forecast for Spring Wheat areas. Minneapolis closed higher again, but Winter Wheat markets were lower. The Winter Wheat harvest is ongoing. Winter Wheat yield reports are strong, so the supply will likely be good once the harvest is complete. However, the Spring Wheat situation is different and a short crop is increasingly likely. More rain is possible later this week, but Spring Wheat areas could get shortchanged again. Chart trends are sideways in the Winter Wheat markets but are up in Minneapolis. Its harvest time for Winter Wheat. Yield reports have generally been good and it has turned drier for the harvest. Spring Wheat areas of the US and Canada got some showers and storms, but mostly in Canada. A few more showers are in the forecast, but once again mostly for Canada. North Dakota is looking mostly dry.
Weekly Chicago Soft Red Winter Wheat Futures
Weekly Chicago Hard Red Winter Wheat Futures
Weekly Minneapolis Hard Red Spring Wheat Futures
Corn: Corn was lower as forecasts for the Midwest called for more rains late in the week. Rains late last week were very big. As much as 8.00 inches fell in a few locations but most areas got less or much less. More was coming over the weekend and into this week. As much as 2.00 to 4.00 inches of rain is possible, with more forecast for a few areas, mostly in central and eastern areas but also somewhat in the west. The northern and western areas could see cooler temperatures but will be mostly dry. Futures also got bad demand news with the recent Supreme Court ruling on biofuels wavers. The Supreme Court said small refiners could be exempt from blending requirements and that could hurt ethanol demand here in the US. Oats were higher. Canadian Oats areas look to be dry in the near term. Hot and dry conditions continue in central and northern Brazil for Corn there. Longer range forecasts released by NWS call for warmer and drier weather for many important US growing areas this Summer.
Weekly Corn Futures
Weekly Oats Futures
Soybeans and Soybean Meal: Soybeans were lower and Soybean Meal closed higher Friday on reports of big rains in much of the Midwest and forecasts for more rains in the coming week. Soybean Oil was lower on news that the US Supreme Court has ruled that small refineries can get bio fuels exemptions from the government. Rains up to 8.00 inches were reported in parts of Iowa and big rains fell mostly east of the Mississippi River, but also west in eastern and southern Iowa. These areas are in line for more rain this week. Minnesota and northern Iowa and the Dakotas should get very little, if any, rain. Forecasts call for cooler weather this week in the Midwest and northern Great Plains. China has started with new US Soybeans purchases for Fall delivery. The longer range forecasts from NWS call for warmer and drier than normal conditions for most Soybeans areas of the US. Traders think there is less old crop demand and that less demand will mean a less tight situation for old crop Soybeans in the next few months.
Weekly Chicago Soybeans Futures
Weekly Chicago Soybean Meal Futures
Rice: Rice prices shot higher in the first part of last week, but gave back a majority of the gains later in the week. Futures are now back inside the previous trading range on the weekly charts. The daily charts show mixed trends. Mostly dry conditions and warmer temperatures are currently forecast for southern US growing areas, but Louisiana and Mississippi got a tropical storm moving through this past weekend. Rice areas have generally been wet and northern areas have been cool, but better conditions are appearing this week. Louisiana and parts of Mississippi were saturated but it is drier now. Some big storms are in the forecast for the rest of the week Warm temperatures are reported in Arkansas and Missouri and the crop progress is improving. However, it is still very wet in Arkansas and farmer progress has been limited for the last couple of weeks.
Weekly Chicago Rice Futures
Palm Oil and Vegetable Oils: Palm Oil futures were higher Friday and higher for the week. Futures overall remain in a short term trading range. Futures traded a little lower earlier in the week on MPOA data that showed more production of Palm Oil in Malaysia than previously expected. News that Indonesia was contemplating a reduction in the export tax was also bad for prices. The private surveyors showed more demand so far this month in reports issued on Friday. The reports provoked the stronger Friday close. Canola closed mixed on weather concerns and on tight current supplies. Some showers, but a lot of dry weather, is in the forecast for the Prairies this week and it remains generally dry. Demand has backed off with the collapse in world vegetable oils prices, but supplies remain tight in the country. July had trended lower on the lack of demand but rebounded last week on the lack of supply. Soybean Oil was sharply lower on Friday but higher for the week in response to a Supreme Court ruling permitting the current government to offer some waivers to the industry and cut demand for bio fuels. Soybean Oil got a bearish shock with the news on Friday and prices were limit down early in the session. Futures closed off of the limits but were still sharply lower for the day.
Weekly Malaysian Palm Oil Futures
Weekly Chicago Soybean Oil Futures
Weekly Canola Futures
Cotton: Futures were a little higher on Friday and started to break out higher on the daily charts. Futures were higher for the week but remain in a trading range on the weekly charts. Ideas that crops in the Delta were hurt by the recent tropical storm that passed through the region provided the best support. Cotton growing conditions have improved in the last couple of weeks with rains reported in West Texas and perhaps flooding rains the Delta. The Southeast missed the biggest rains and East Texas has been dry. West Texas is expected to dry down this week but the Delta could get some big storms. Some scattered showers are in the forecast in the Southeast. Production ideas are being impacted in just about all areas due to the weather extremes.
Weekly US Cotton Futures
Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice and Citrus: FCOJ closed a little higher for one more day on Friday and chart trends are still mixed on the daily charts. The weekly chart trends are mixed, but futures did hold key support. The hurricane season is here and a big storm could threaten trees and fruit. An active season is anticipated but that does not mean a big and damaging storm is coming. It does mean that the market will be on alert if one does show up. Storms from the Gulf of Mexico have gone north of the state in the past couple of weeks. Brazil is reported to be in good condition. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production. It is dry in northern and western Mexican growing areas but there is some potential for some rains soon.
Weekly FCOJ Futures
Coffee: New York closed sharply higher on Friday and broke out higher on the daily charts. London was also higher and continued its recent up move. Weekly chart trends are mixed in New York, but up in London as a dramatic rally in Robusta prices continues. The move in New York comes as the Brazil crop is coming to the market. It looks like demand is moderate for Robusta these days, and the offers are starting to increase as the Arabica harvest is expanding in Brazil. Drier conditions are in the forecast for Brazil Coffee areas this week. Good conditions are reported in northern South America and good conditions reported in Central America. Colombia is having trouble exporting Coffee right now due to protests inside the country. Conditions are reported to be generally good in Asia and Africa.
Weekly New York Arabica Coffee Futures
Weekly London Robusta Coffee Futures
Sugar: New York and London were higher on Friday and for the week and prices are trying to break out higher. There is talk in the market that the recent lows will hold for now. New York has led the charge higher as UNICA showed less Sugarcane harvesting and less processing by mills than expected. Sugarcane harvesting was slow due to rains in the harvest area. Mills were also processing for more Ethanol and less for Sugar than expected. London has been the leader to the downside on ample supplies of White Sugar available to the market and forecasts for improved growing conditions in Brazil. There is plenty of White Sugar available in India for the market and monsoon rains are promoting good conditions for the next crop. Southern growing areas of Brazil are getting some beneficial showers, with Parana and parts of Sao Paulo getting the best rains. Thailand is expecting improved production. Sugar demand is said to be weak. Ethanol demand is returning to the market as more world economies open up after the pandemic.
Weekly New York World Raw Sugar Futures
Weekly London White Sugar Futures
Cocoa: New York closed higher for the week and London closed lower. Both markets were higher on Friday. The daily charts show mixed trends in both markets. The harvests are over in West Africa and ports there have been filled with Cocoa. The weather has had above average rains in West Africa. European demand has been slow and demand ideas in general are weak. The supplies are there for any increased demand.
Weekly New York Cocoa Futures
Weekly London Cocoa Futures
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322