About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Futures were a little lower in correction trading. Ideas that crops in the Delta were hurt by the recent tropical storm that passed through the region provided the best support. Trends are up on the daily charts. Cotton growing conditions have improved in the last couple of weeks with rains reported in West Texas and perhaps flooding rains the Delta. The Southeast missed the biggest rains and East Texas has been dry. West Texas is expected to dry down this week but the Delta could get some big storms. Some scattered showers are in the forecast in the Southeast. Production ideas are being impacted in just about all areas due to the weather extremes.
Overnight News: The Delta will get scattered showers and near normal temperatures and Southeast will get scattered showers and near to below normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 83.42 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 165,925 bales, from 165,025 bales yesterday. ICE said that 76 notices were posted for July delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 115 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 8790 and 9040 December. Support is at 8600, 8540, and 8410 December, with resistance of 8710, 8750 and 8850 July.

DJ On-Call Cotton – Jun 24
As of Jun 18. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or
purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts
of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.
Source: CFTC
*-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from
last week.
Call Previous Change Call Previous Change
Sales Purchases
May 21 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jul 21 3,831 10,039 -6,208 1,176 3,628 -2,452
Oct 21 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 21 49,727 47,851 1,876 23,780 24,108 -328
Mar 22 21,307 19,421 1,886 5,170 4,917 253
May 22 9,206 8,628 578 995 937 58
Jul 22 24,668 23,526 1,142 3,392 3,104 288
Dec 22 6,586 6,523 63 10,022 9,978 44
Mar 23 1,236 1,216 20 176 176 0
May 23 18 18 0 0 0 0
Jul 23 18 18 0 0 0 0
Dec 23 40 40 0 659 659 0
Jul 24 0 0 0 220 220 0
Dec 24 0 0 0 220 220 0
Total 116,637 117,280 -643 45,810 47,947 -2,137
Open Open Change
Int Int
May 21 0 0 0
Jul 21 6,984 26,160 -19,176
Oct 21 194 155 39
Dec 21 139,802 138,652 1,150
Mar 22 33,671 28,685 4,986
May 22 6,620 6,465 155
Jul 22 9,330 9,192 138
Dec 22 11,832 11,888 -56
Mar 23 182 182 0
May 23 3 3 0
Jul 23 3 3 0
Dec 23 3 3 0
Jul 24 0 0 0
Dec 24 0 0 0
Total 208,624 221,388 -12,764

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed a little higher for one more day and chart trends are still mixed on the daily charts. The hurricane season is here and a big storm could threaten trees and fruit. An active season is anticipated but that does not mean a big and damaging storm is coming. It does mean that the market will be on alert if one does show up. Storms from the Gulf of Mexico have gone north of the state in the past couple of weeks. Brazil is reported to be in good condition. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production. It is dry in northern and western Mexican growing areas but there is some potential for some rains soon.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers and above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 115.00, 113.00, and 112.00 July, with resistance at 120.00, 122.00, and 126.00 July.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York closed a little lower as the new Brazil crop is making its way to the market, but London was higher as Robusta supplies are light and the market wants a little Coffee. Trends on the daily charts are still sideways in New York but are turning up in London. It looks like demand is moderate for Robusta these days, and the offers are starting to increase as the Arabica harvest is expanding in Brazil. Drier conditions are in the forecast for Brazil Coffee areas this week. Good conditions are reported in northern South America and good conditions reported in Central America. Colombia is having trouble exporting Coffee right now due to protests inside the country. Conditions are reported to be generally good in Asia and Africa.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 2.176 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 138.20 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE said that 230 contracts were posted for delivery today against NY July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 331 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 149.00, 146.00, and 142.00 September, and resistance is at 155.00, 158.00 and 159.00 September. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1680 and 1730 September. Support is at 1620, 1600, and 1580 September, and resistance is at 1690, 1720, and 1750 September.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London were higher and prices are trying to break out higher. There is talk in the market that the recent lows will hold for now. London has been the leader to the downside on ample supplies of White Sugar available to the market and forecasts for improved growing conditions in Brazil. There is plenty of White Sugar available in India for the market and monsoon rains are promoting good conditions for the next crop. Southern growing areas of Brazil are getting some beneficial showers, with Parana and parts of Sao Paulo getting the best rains. Thailand is expecting improved production. Sugar demand is said to be weak. Ethanol demand is returning to the market as more world economies open up after the pandemic.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 1750 and 1830 October. Support is at 1690, 1670, and 1640 October, and resistance is at 1760, 1790, and 1810 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 416.00, 413.00, and 410.00 August, and resistance is at 428.00, 435.00, and 440.00 August.

DJ Brazil Sugar Crush Down 14% in 1H June as Rains in Some Areas Slowed Harvesting
By Jeffrey T. Lewis
SAO PAULO–Brazilian sugar mills in the country’s center-south region crushed less cane in the first half of June compared with a year earlier, as rain in some parts of the region slowed harvesting work in the fields, according to industry group Unica.
Center-south mills crushed 36 million metric tons of cane in the period, a decrease of 14% from the same period a year earlier. They produced 2.2 million tons of sugar, down 14.4%, and made 1.7 billion liters of ethanol, a decline of 8.7%.
The production mix for the first half of June was 46.25% sugar to 53.75% ethanol, compared with 47.1% sugar and 52.9% ethanol in the same period a year ago.
The rain in parts of Sao Paulo, Mato Grosso do Sul and Parana states had an impact on the harvest, according to Unica’s technical director, Antonio de Padua Rodrigues.
Even as that precipitation is affecting cane harvesting, unusually dry weather in parts of Brazil in recent months have hit agricultural production, reducing output of coffee, corn and other crops.
In the season from April 1 through June 15, mills in the region crushed 165.6 million tons of cane, down 11.6% from the same period a year earlier. Sugar production fell 11.9% to 9.3 million tons, and ethanol output fell 6.9% to 7.5 billion liters.
The production mix for the season through June 15 was 45.4% sugar to 54.6% ethanol, compared with 46.1% sugar and 53.9% ethanol in the same period a year ago.
Write to Jeffrey T. Lewis at jeffrey.lewis@wsj.com

COCOA
General Comments: New York closed mixed to lower and London closed lower. The daily charts show down trends in both markets. The harvests are over in West Africa and ports there have been filled with Cocoa. The weather has had above average rains in West Africa. European demand has been slow and demand ideas in general are weak. The supplies are there for any increased demand.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.767 million bags. ICE said that 2 contracts were posted for July delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 231 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2280 September. Support is at 2320, 2300, and 2280 September, with resistance at 2370, 2410, and 2450 September. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1580 and 1550 September. Support is at 1600, 1590, and 1570 September, with resistance at 1620, 1640, and 1650 September.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322