Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We start off the day with Durable Goods Orders MoM (May), Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation MoM (May), Export Sales, GDP Price Index QoQ Final Q1, GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q1, Goods Trade Balance Adv (May), Initial Jobless Claims (19/Jun), Jobless Claims 4-Week Average (Jun/19), Wholesale Inventories MoM Adv (May), Corporate Profits QoQ Final Q1, Core PCE Prices QoQ Final Q1, PCE Prices QoQ Final Q1, Continuing Jobless Claims (12/Jun), Durable Goods Orders ex Defense MoM (May), at 7:30 A.M., EIA Natural Gas Stocks and NY Fed Treasury Purchases 22.5 to 30 yrs. At 9:30 A.M., Fed Williams Speech and Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index (Jun) at 10:00 A.M., 4-Week and 8-Week Bill Auction at 10;#0 A.M., 7-Year Note Auction at 12:00 P.M., Hogs & Pigs at 2:00 P.M. and Fed Bank Stress test Results at 3:30 P.M.
On the Corn Front the market is still nervous about weather and acreage. The North and Western Corn Belt is dry as a bone while the eastern Corn Belt is getting a fair amount of rain and the market is fixed on acreage numbers with more plantings expected to show up and better yields expected from the Eastern Corn Belt. Even with Soybean Oil options reaching all-time open interest highs driven by the global biodiesel situation driving implied volatility above 50%. Traders hope the weekly Export Sales numbers will improve this morning and will be watching the weather like a hawk as we await next Wednesday’s USDA Grain stocks and Planted acreage data. In the overnight electronic session, the July corn is currently trading at 658 ¾ which is 5 ½ cents lower. The trading range has been 664 to 657 ¼.
On the Ethanol Front the EIA showed production averaged 1.048 million barrels a day, up 23,000 barrels on the week and 155,000 on the year. Stocks hit a thirteen-week high at 21.12 million barrels, an increase of 518,000 barrels from last week and 96,000 from a year ago. The next corn for ethanol use will be July 12th. There were no trades posted in the overnight electronic session. The July contract settled at 2.480 and is currently showing no market with Open Interest dropping to zero contracts. We will move onto the August contract tomorrow.
On the Crude oil Front the market is gaining ground to reach $80 a barrel on demand and draws in product. No question $80 a barrel is sustainable by the end of summer with some analysts predicting $100 a barrel. That will make consumers go ouch at the pump. German demand is also picking up as countries are starting to open back up again. In the overnight electronic session, the August crude oil is currently trading at 7300 which is 8 tics lower. The trading range has been 7361 to 7280.
On the natural Gas Front the market continues to move higher on demand and traders focusing on the glut may be all but over. This morning we have the EIA Gas storage data and the Thomson Reuters poll with 17 analysts participating estimate builds ranging from 56bcf to 79bcf with the median injection of 68bcf. This compares to the one-year build of 73bcf and the five-year average injection of 65bcf. In the overnight electronic session, the July natural gas is currently trading at 3.329 which is .004 lower. The trading range has been 3.348 to 3.305.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Call me with any questions at 1-888-264-5665 or 312-264-4374 cell 312-213-7678 email email@example.comQuestions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374