About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ USDA Cold Storage: Totals-Jun 22
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)==U.S. stocks of pork bellies in freezers
totaled 36.208 million pounds, in May, 2.9% above the previous
month, and 40.0% below May 2020, the U.S. Department Agriculture
said Tuesday.
In thousand pounds.
public
May 31 Apr 30 May 31 Apr 30 warehouse
2021 2021 2020 2020 stocks/May
pork bellies 36,208 35,204 60,322 80,728
orange juice 736,289 754,911 852,684 838,528
french fries 926,582 921,247 895,399 975,074
other potatoes 201,602 196,239 204,029 217,686
chicken rstr (whole) 14,311 14,740 23,533 22,545
ham 109,525 80,389 107,550 113,328
total pork 461,138 456,921 467,927 611,222 405,795
total beef 414,047 448,854 417,356 479,456 404,563
total red meat 903,534 937,571 936,227 1,136,888 837,585
total chicken 730,327 723,131 858,236 933,498
total turkey 393,351 362,510 420,129 417,981
total poultry 1,126,206 1,088,515 1,286,588 1,357,337 1,051,534
===============================================================================

DJ Analysts’ Estimates for June USDA Cattle-On-Feed Report
The following estimates, as compiled by the Wall Street Journal for the nation’s feedyards with a capacity of 1,000 or more head, are in percentages of the year-earlier figure. High and low projections were dropped in the calculation of averages. The U.S. Department of Agriculture report is scheduled for release at 3 p.m. ET (1900 GMT) Friday.
Average Range
of estimates of estimates
On-feed June 1 100.6 99.8- 101.2
Placed in May 95.0 93.0- 99.4
Marketed in May 123.4 121.6- 126.0
Analyst On-Feed Placements Marketed
June 1 in May in May
Allegiant Commodity Group 100.6 95.0 123.5
Allendale Inc. 100.4 93.5 123.5
HedgersEdge 101.2 97.0 121.6
Livestock Mktg Info Ctr 100.6 95.3 122.7
NFC Markets 101.2 99.4 124.4
Texas A&M Extension 100.4 94.2 122.9
U.S. Commodities 99.8 93.0 126.0

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were lower yesterday as beneficial rains fell in growing areas over the weekend. Yield reports are strong, so the supply will likely be good once the harvest is complete. Minneapolis closed sharply higher on less than expected rains in growing areas over the weekend and in response to the crop condition reports released Monday afternoon by USDA. More rain is possible later this week, but Spring Wheat areas could get shortchanged again. Chart trends are sideways to down in the Winter Wheat markets but are up in Minneapolis. Its harvest time for Winter Wheat. Yield reports have generally been good. Spring Wheat areas of the US and Canada got some showers and storms, but mostly in Canada. A few more showers are in the forecast, but once again mostly for Canada. It will be cold in Canada as well. North Dakota is looking mostly dry. Showers and rains were seen in parts of Western Texas and in Oklahoma. Drier weather is preferred for harvesting.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 649, 640, and 638 July, with resistance at 673, 676, and 689 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 588, 586, and 584 July, with resistance at 616, 621, and 632 July. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 825, 840, and 875 July. Support is at 786, 775, and 755 July, and resistance is at 802, 807, and 824 July.

RICE
General Comments: Rice prices were higher again yesterday on follow through buying. Funds were said to be good buyers of futures and trends turned up on the daily charts. Mostly dry conditions and warmer temperatures are currently forecast for southern US growing areas, but Louisiana could get a tropical storm moving through this weekend. Rice areas have generally been wet and northern areas have been cool, but better conditions are appearing this week. Louisiana and parts of Texas were saturated but it is drier now and crops are rated in good condition overall. Warm temperatures are reported in Arkansas and Missouri and the crop progress is improving. However, it is still very wet in Arkansas and farmer progress has been limited for the last couple of weeks. Texas and Louisiana are almost out of Rice, but there is Rice available in the other states, especially Arkansas. Milling interest in Rice is said to be slow.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1357 July. Support is at 1281, 1258, and 1242 July, with resistance at 1326, 1333, and 1336 July.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Jun 23
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 17.12 10.95 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 16.75 11.19 0.00
Brokens 10.86 —- —-

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn was higher in July as the cash market is holding strong but lower in new crop months after some beneficial rains feel over the weekend in the Midwest and as forecasts for the Midwest called for more rains late in the week. As much as 2.00 to 4.00 inches of rain is possible, mostly in central ane eastern areas but also somewhat in the west The northern areas could see cooler temperatures and some rains in the next week after rains fell mostly in central and southern areas over the weekend. Canadian Oats areas look to be dry in the near term. Some rains were reported in Oats areas last week and these showers and storms spilled into the Dakotas and Nebraska and into western Iowa. Hot and dry conditions continue in central and northern Brazil. Longer range forecasts released by NWS call for warmer and drier weather for many important US growing areas this Summer.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 647, 630, and 603 July, and resistance is at 668, 678, and 688 July. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 352 and 338 July. Support is at 356, 354, and 351 July, and resistance is at 370, 379, and 387 July.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed lower yesterday on forecasts for more rains in the Midwet. Rains of from 2.00 to 4.00 inches are possible mostly east of the Mississippi River, but also west in eastern and southern Iowa. Rains were reported in the Midwest, but mostly in central and southern areas. Northern areas got a little rain. Forecasts call for cooler weather this week in the Midwest and northern Great Plains. China has started with new US Soybeans purchases for Fall delivery. The longer range forecasts from NWS call for warmer and drier than normal conditions for most Soybeans areas of the US.
Overnight News: China bought 330,000 tons of US new crop Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1375, 1370, and 1355 July, and resistance is at 1423, 1448, and 1460 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 363.00, 360.00, and 357.00 July, and resistance is at 378.00, 382.00, and 387.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5900, 5550, and 5450 July, with resistance at 6220, 6310, and 6430 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were higher today on Chicago price action and despite word that the Indonesian government was considering reducing its export taxes. Part of the weakness was on ideas of weaker demand and potentially stronger production. Demand has been mixed so far this month and the market fears the loss of Indian demand due to the big Coronavirus outbreak in India that could cut demand. However, prices are very high in India and imports are needed. Canola closed lower again. Some showers, but a lot of dry weather, is in the forecast for the Prairies this week and it remains generally dry. Demand has backed off with the collapse in world vegetable oils prices.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with no objectives. Support is at 719.00, 685.00, and 677.00 July, with resistance at 759.00, 773.00, and 816.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3250, 3230, and 3200 September, with resistance at 3550, 3590, and 3750 September.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry north and west, showers and storms south and east. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June July May May May
July July July July
August July July July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jun 21
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 799.00 35.90 July 2021 up 37.60
Basis: Thunder Bay 770.20 70.00 Nov. 2021 up 6.20
Basis: Vancouver 790.20 90.00 Nov. 2021 up 6.20
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – June 23
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 962.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Aug 917.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Sept 867.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 862.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 965.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Aug 920.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Sept 870.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 865.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 930.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 890.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 3,700.00 +50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 287.00 +02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.164)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jun 23
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 138,787 lots, or 7.98 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-21 5,687 5,740 5,687 5,723 5,691 5,720 29 102 2,072
Sep-21 5,723 5,769 5,718 5,758 5,707 5,745 38 116,193 99,523
Nov-21 5,715 5,797 5,715 5,788 5,741 5,774 33 15,463 28,879
Jan-22 5,765 5,816 5,765 5,808 5,754 5,794 40 3,371 13,731
Mar-22 5,785 5,823 5,775 5,810 5,767 5,798 31 3,418 9,650
May-22 5,796 5,850 5,796 5,842 5,814 5,838 24 240 705
Corn
Turnover: 581,619 lots, or 15.05 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-21 2,652 2,658 2,635 2,644 2,654 2,647 -7 2,501 9,193
Sep-21 2,580 2,603 2,569 2,597 2,591 2,588 -3 420,323 596,105
Nov-21 2,565 2,590 2,559 2,585 2,572 2,575 3 52,950 225,937
Jan-22 2,574 2,603 2,570 2,598 2,584 2,587 3 71,144 197,534
Mar-22 2,574 2,602 2,571 2,596 2,584 2,586 2 30,991 36,873
May-22 2,571 2,601 2,568 2,597 2,582 2,586 4 3,710 9,366
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,415,288 lots, or 47.98 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-21 3,358 3,370 3,336 3,336 3,366 3,353 -13 1,905 12,376
Aug-21 3,404 3,430 3,373 3,375 3,416 3,412 -4 34,580 16,903
Sep-21 3,398 3,415 3,377 3,384 3,400 3,393 -7 983,472 1,196,867
Nov-21 3,408 3,433 3,399 3,404 3,418 3,412 -6 67,892 46,729
Dec-21 3,408 3,432 3,402 3,405 3,422 3,414 -8 19,227 20,271
Jan-22 3,405 3,419 3,385 3,393 3,408 3,398 -10 255,867 495,841
Mar-22 3,254 3,281 3,251 3,260 3,263 3,261 -2 42,450 227,421
May-22 3,211 3,234 3,205 3,210 3,217 3,215 -2 9,895 34,174
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,054,158 lots, or 73.35 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-21 7,802 7,802 7,802 7,802 7,684 7,802 118 1 88
Aug-21 7,188 7,254 7,188 7,254 7,086 7,210 124 3 108
Sep-21 6,902 7,116 6,872 6,984 6,884 6,978 94 928,508 402,286
Oct-21 6,856 7,052 6,810 6,918 6,804 6,918 114 23,167 23,595
Nov-21 6,780 6,970 6,744 6,854 6,742 6,838 96 6,653 33,186
Dec-21 6,738 6,946 6,680 6,806 6,676 6,782 106 4,708 42,191
Jan-22 6,648 6,886 6,648 6,782 6,652 6,770 118 82,753 100,844
Feb-22 6,698 6,860 6,670 6,860 6,658 6,758 100 2,387 5,194
Mar-22 6,708 6,866 6,670 6,762 6,654 6,764 110 2,841 2,352
Apr-22 6,690 6,868 6,672 6,768 6,658 6,776 118 1,052 1,766
May-22 6,668 6,878 6,668 6,784 6,660 6,780 120 2,080 4,078
Jun-22 6,608 6,762 6,608 6,762 6,644 6,706 62 5 9
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,085,004 lots, or 87.91 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-21 8,448 8,670 8,402 8,670 8,408 8,518 110 97 777
Aug-21 8,234 8,312 8,234 8,312 8,130 8,284 154 6 163
Sep-21 8,026 8,232 8,010 8,166 8,008 8,120 112 959,796 437,359
Nov-21 7,912 8,128 7,912 8,068 7,912 8,024 112 34,487 35,791
Dec-21 7,906 8,084 7,876 8,016 7,810 7,958 148 8,030 71,318
Jan-22 7,850 8,048 7,838 7,986 7,830 7,942 112 78,684 127,226
Mar-22 7,774 7,936 7,752 7,906 7,760 7,838 78 1,824 12,510
May-22 7,688 7,812 7,686 7,726 7,666 7,750 84 2,080 3,821
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322