About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT
General Comments: All three Wheat markets were higher on Friday in recovery trading, but Winter Wheat lower for the week. Minneapolis Spring Wheat higher. Chart trends turned back down in the Winter Wheat markets but are more mixed in Minneapolis. Its harvest time for Winter Wheat. Yield reports have generally been good. Spring Wheat areas of the US and Canada got some showers and storms, but mostly in Canada. A few more showers are in the forecast, but once again mostly for Canada. It will be cold in Canada as well. North Dakota is looking mostly dry and model runs from last week have taken some of the precipitation for the next week out of the state. Showers and rains were seen in parts of Western Texas and in Oklahoma. Drier weather is preferred for harvesting. Some rains would be very beneficial for planting and initial growth of the Spring Wheat and these are falling in some areas.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 635 and 600 July. Support is at 657, 649, and 639 July, with resistance at 673, 676, and 689 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 575 and 550 July. Support is at 602, 588, and 584 July, with resistance at 621, 632, and 647 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 755, 739, and 730 July, and resistance is at 780, 784, and 805 July.

RICE
General Comments: Rice prices were higher on Friday but lower for the week and made new lows for the move. Mostly dry conditions and warmer temperatures are currently forecast for southern US growing areas, but Louisiana could get a tropical storm moving through this weekend. Rice areas have generally been wet and northern areas have been cool, but better conditions are appearing this week. Louisiana and parts of Texas were saturated but it is drier now and crops are rated in good condition overall. Warm temperatures are reported in Arkansas and Missouri and the crop progress is improving. However, it is still very wet in Arkansas and farmer progress has been limited for the last couple of weeks. Texas and Louisiana are almost out of Rice, but there is Rice available in the other states, especially Arkansas. Milling interest in Rice is said to be slow.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1221, 1212, and 1200 July, with resistance at 1250, 1268, and 1280 July.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn was higher on Friday but lower for the week as forecasts for the Midwest called for good rains over the next week or two. Traders were also worried about Fed actions in response to inflation. The export sales report showed demand was at the low end of trade expectations. There are also concerns about ethanol demand as the government could soon modify its waiver system and allow for a few waivers in the near term. The northern areas could see cooler temperatures and some rains in the next week. Oats were also lower last week. Canadian Oats areas look to get some very beneficial rains in the near term. Some rains were reported in Oats areas last week and these showers and storms spilled into the Dakotas and Nebraska and into western Iowa. Hot and dry conditions continue in central and northern Brazil. Longer range forecasts released by NWS call for warmer and drier weather for many important US growing areas this Summer.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 620 and 617 July. Support is at 629, 603, and 588 July, and resistance is at 647, 653, and 688 July. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 365, 358, and 356 July, and resistance is at 379, 387, and 392 July.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil were sharply lower last week with Soybean Meal lower as weather concerns returned to the forefront. Traders were also worried about Fed actions in response to inflation. The export sales report showed demand was at the low end of trade expectations. Funds were the best sellers. There are also concerns about bio fuels demand as the government could soon modify its waiver system and allow for a few waivers in the near term. Forecasts call for warm and dry weather this week in the northern Midwest and northern Great Plains but showers are in the forecast for much of this week in central and southern areas. Northern areas should get some showers and storms and cooler temperatures this weekend or next week. China should start with new US Soybeans purchases soon for Fall delivery and reports indicate they have bought about 8 cargoes on the big move lower. Soybeans futures recovered sharply on Friday in part on the news. The longer range forecasts from NWS call for warmer and drier than normal conditions for most Soybeans areas of the US.
Overnight News: China bought 336,000 tons of US new crop Soybeans and unknown destinations bought 120,000 tons of US new crop Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with no objectives. Support is at 1375, 1355, and 1324 July, and resistance is at 1423, 1448, and 1460 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 359.00 and 347.00 July. Support is at 373.00, 369.00, and 366.00 July, and resistance is at 378.00, 382.00, and 387.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with no objectives. Support is at 5450, 5350, and 5260 July, with resistance at 5920, 6010, and 6220 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were higher Friday on stronger overnight Chicago Soybean Oil futures, but down a lot for the week. Futures were lower today on word that the Indonesian government was considering reducing its export taxes. Some of the weakness on the weekly charts came with a change in the front months, but part of the weakness was on ideas of weaker demand and potentially stronger production. Demand has been less so far this month and the market fears the loss of Indian demand due to the big Coronavirus outbreak in India that could cut demand. However, prices are very high in India and imports are needed. Canola closed sharply lower on weather concerns and Chicago price action. Some showers, but a lot of dry weather, is in the forecast for the Prairies this week and it remains generally dry. Demand has backed off with the collapse in world vegetable oils prices. Soybean Oil was sharply lower in response to ideas that the current government might offer some waivers to the industry and cut demand for bio fuels. There are many who think this will not happen, but many who are worried it will.
Overnight News: SGS said that Malaysian Palm Oil exports are now 962,184 tons, up 11% from last month. AmSpec said that exports are now 937,135 tons, down about 1.8% from last month.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with no objectives. Support is at 762.00, 754.00, and 750.00 July, with resistance at 816.00, 828.00, and 836.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 3250, 3230, and 3200 September, with resistance at 3550, 3590, and 3750 September.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry north and west, showers and storms south and east. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May +97 July +160 May +95 May +74 May
June +88 July +60 July +85 July
July +63 July +65 July +71 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jun 18
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 761.40 -60.00 Jul 2021 dn 60.00
Basis: Thunder Bay 764.00 70.00 Nov 2021 up 27.60
Basis: Vancouver 784.00 90.00 Nov 2021 up 27.60
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell
204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – June 21
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 952.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Aug 897.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Sept 852.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 850.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 955.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Aug 900.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Sept 855.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 852.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 917.50 -22.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 880.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 3,620.00 -80.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
July 284.00 -04.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.144)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jun 21
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 184,163 lots, or 10.38 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-21 5,625 5,646 5,575 5,642 5,557 5,601 44 182 2,135
Sep-21 5,646 5,683 5,583 5,654 5,598 5,633 35 164,231 118,662
Nov-21 5,640 5,711 5,608 5,664 5,619 5,659 40 11,329 27,703
Jan-22 5,701 5,733 5,636 5,710 5,651 5,685 34 3,992 14,583
Mar-22 5,730 5,752 5,662 5,722 5,669 5,709 40 4,164 9,317
May-22 5,770 5,777 5,711 5,765 5,705 5,747 42 265 713
Corn
Turnover: 858,373 lots, or 22.25 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-21 2,685 2,685 2,646 2,662 2,685 2,658 -27 2,878 11,058
Sep-21 2,624 2,632 2,568 2,595 2,624 2,595 -29 611,441 606,561
Nov-21 2,600 2,600 2,551 2,579 2,590 2,570 -20 73,854 232,578
Jan-22 2,605 2,614 2,567 2,596 2,603 2,586 -17 137,153 190,566
Mar-22 2,613 2,615 2,566 2,586 2,602 2,584 -18 28,088 38,343
May-22 2,610 2,621 2,565 2,588 2,603 2,580 -23 4,959 8,963
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,437,131 lots, or 48.79 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-21 3,363 3,386 3,352 3,377 3,321 3,367 46 5,524 14,862
Aug-21 3,434 3,456 3,405 3,418 3,390 3,420 30 22,213 16,567
Sep-21 3,402 3,426 3,383 3,394 3,382 3,398 16 961,505 1,161,999
Nov-21 3,411 3,443 3,401 3,412 3,387 3,413 26 64,389 38,941
Dec-21 3,426 3,448 3,411 3,419 3,394 3,421 27 28,318 19,135
Jan-22 3,404 3,433 3,389 3,399 3,377 3,403 26 296,162 473,540
Mar-22 3,266 3,288 3,244 3,258 3,240 3,260 20 46,868 227,296
May-22 3,202 3,232 3,196 3,206 3,186 3,209 23 12,152 30,785
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,272,889 lots, or 86.42 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-21 – – – 7,436 7,436 7,436 0 0 91
Aug-21 7,072 7,074 7,038 7,038 7,032 7,060 28 3 109
Sep-21 6,816 6,942 6,734 6,816 6,742 6,804 62 1,167,513 411,464
Oct-21 6,800 6,862 6,676 6,740 6,670 6,734 64 13,418 22,979
Nov-21 6,728 6,790 6,602 6,682 6,632 6,694 62 5,445 32,695
Dec-21 6,620 6,738 6,552 6,620 6,580 6,606 26 4,201 41,753
Jan-22 6,638 6,692 6,512 6,572 6,516 6,574 58 77,047 90,824
Feb-22 6,562 6,676 6,504 6,572 6,500 6,558 58 1,731 4,923
Mar-22 6,542 6,674 6,510 6,558 6,494 6,572 78 1,134 2,189
Apr-22 6,544 6,678 6,510 6,582 6,522 6,562 40 642 1,702
May-22 6,600 6,678 6,506 6,576 6,494 6,572 78 1,749 3,716
Jun-22 6,436 6,570 6,436 6,550 6,498 6,524 26 6 7
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,293,527 lots, or 10.17 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-21 8,320 8,388 8,288 8,288 8,242 8,342 100 68 824
Aug-21 – – – 7,944 7,944 7,944 0 0 171
Sep-21 7,890 7,974 7,810 7,920 7,830 7,878 48 1,155,655 456,363
Nov-21 7,770 7,870 7,726 7,824 7,718 7,790 72 24,245 38,664
Dec-21 7,750 7,828 7,692 7,784 7,704 7,748 44 6,966 67,704
Jan-22 7,750 7,798 7,652 7,756 7,656 7,710 54 104,859 119,612
Mar-22 7,620 7,700 7,550 7,668 7,558 7,616 58 1,018 11,689
May-22 7,578 7,618 7,498 7,562 7,502 7,562 60 716 3,412
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
This content was automatically published based on data and/or text from the original source. For feedback, write to singaporeeditors@dowjones.com.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322