Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Futures were higher in range trading on weather concerns. Trends are still mostly up on the daily charts. Cotton growing conditions have improved with rains reported in West Texas and the Delta. Some say West Texas is now too wet. It is dry in the southeast. Production ideas are being impacted in just about all areas due to the weather extremes. Delta crop conditions are called good. Cotton demand remains solid although weaker this week. Ideas are that Cotton demand can hold strong after a positive export sales report on Friday.
Overnight News: The Delta will get scattered showers and near normal temperatures and Southeast will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 80.96 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 163,737 bales, from 160,287 bales yesterday. USDA said that net Upland Cotton weekly export sales were 108,200 bales this year and 21,400 bales next year. Net Pima sales were 3,900 bales this year and 0 bales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 8570, 8850, and 10010 July. Support is at 8450, 8360, and 8280 July, with resistance of 8650, 8870 and 9000 July.
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher and made new highs for the move. Chart trends are up. The weather in Florida is good with isolated showers. The hurricane season is coming and a big storm could threaten trees and fruit. An active season is anticipated but that does not mean a big and damaging storm is coming. It does mean that the market will be on alert if one does show up. It is dry in Brazil and trees and fruit are stressed. Stress to trees could return if the dry weather continues as is in the forecast. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production. It is dry in northern and western Mexican growing areas. Florida Mutual said that inventories are 15% less than last year.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 140.00 July. Support is at 124.00, 122.00, and 120.00 July, with resistance at 130.00, 133.00, and 136.00 July.
General Comments: Both markets closed lower as the weather market continued. The return of dry and hot weather to some of the Brazil growing area was the reason for some buying, but reports of beneficial rains in parts of southern Minas Gerais in the last week caused selling. More showers are in the forecast for these areas this week, but development has been delayed and the initial harvest progress has been slowed. The daily and weekly charts show mixed trends now in both markets but both markets have cleared some important resistance areas on the weekly charts and remain above these areas. Good conditions are reported in northern South America and improved conditions reported in Central America. Colombia is having trouble exporting Coffee right now due to protests inside the country. Conditions are reported to be generally good in Asia and Africa.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 2.115 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 141.25 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers with above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 155.00, 153.00, and 150.00 July, and resistance is at 163.00, 166.00 and 169.00 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1560, 1530, and 1520 July, and resistance is at 1620, 1670, and 1690 July.
DJ Uganda Ramps Up Coffee Production to Reach Record High — Market Talk
1335 GMT – Uganda’s coffee output is trending higher, as newly planted coffee farmlands enter the production phase, aiding Africa’s top exporter to reach record output, says the country’s finance ministry. Coffee production jumped nearly 60% to hit 8.1 million 60-kilogram bags in the 2020-21 fiscal year from a year earlier, aided by maturing plantations and favorable weather conditions. The onset of the coronavirus pandemic last year induced job losses and closure of small businesses, forcing many people to return to agriculture. But the World Bank warns that the shift is adding more pressure on Uganda’s natural resources, already strained by rapid population growth, urbanization and a refugee influx. (Nicholas.Bariyo@wsj.com; @Nicholasbariyo)
General Comments: New York and London were a little lower yesterday but both markets are still in a trading range. There are forecasts for better rains in southern Brazil production areas against overall dry conditions in Brazil and ideas of increasing demand for Sugarcane. Demand for ethanol should be increasing and could divert the cane processing to production of the ethanol and away from Sugar. There is plenty of White Sugar available in India for the market. Southern growing areas of Brazil are getting some beneficial rains, with Parana and parts of Sao Paulo getting the best rains. Production has been hurt due to dry weather earlier in the year. India is exporting Sugar and is reported to have a big cane crop this year. Thailand is expecting improved production after drought induced yield losses last year. Ethanol demand is returning to the market as more world economies open up after the pandemic.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1730, 1710, and 1670 October, and resistance is at 1790, 1820, and 1850 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 457.00, 450.00, and 447.00 August, and resistance is at 470.00, 482.00, and 486.00 August.
General Comments: Both markets closed lower on what appeared gto be light volume speculativer selling. The daily charts show sideways or down trends in both markets. The harvests are over in West Africa and ports there have been filled with Cocoa. The weather has been a little too dry for best production prospects for the next crop. European demand has been slow as the quarterly grind data showed a 3% decrease from a year ago in grindings. This has been caused by less demand created by the pandemic. Asian demand improved. North American data showed improved demand. The supplies are there for any increased demand.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.613 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2290, 2210, and 2190 July. Support is at 2320, 2280, and 2020 July, with resistance at 2420, 2440, and 2460 July. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1580 and 1570 July. Support is at 1580, 1560, and 1540 July, with resistance at 1610, 1640, and 1670 July.