About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. April Coffee, Cocoa Imports-June 8
In kilograms from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to pounds
by Dow Jones.
—-Apr 2021—- —-Mar 2021—-
-coffee- kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
coffee, unroasted 112,697,583 248,498,171 115,105,082 253,806,706
coffee, roasted 9,556,723 21,072,574 8,334,604 18,377,802
coffee, soluble
instant 4,707,695 10,380,467 5,061,172 11,159,884
-Cocoa-
cocoa beans 69,235,568 152,664,427 100,574,480 221,766,728
sweetened bars/block
10 lbs or over 2,654,122 5,852,339 2,867,384 6,322,582
for retail candy 0 0 0 0
cocoa butter 7,427,783 16,378,262 7,711,311 17,003,441
cocoa paste,
not defatted 5,748,624 12,675,716 7,296,529 16,088,846
cocoa paste
defatted 5,084,466 11,211,248 4,903,064 10,811,256
cocoa powder,
unsweetened 9,421,426 20,774,244 8,847,451 19,508,629
cocoa powder,
sweetened 15,007 33,090 44,538 98,206
confectioners
coating 5,761,507 12,704,123 5,790,909 12,768,954
candy containing
chocolate 9,366,727 20,653,633 9,724,497 21,442,516

COTTON
General Comments: Futures were higher on weather concerns. Trends are still up on the daily charts. Cotton growing conditions have improved with rains reported in West Texas and the Delta. Some say West Texas is now too wet. It is dry in the southeast. Production ideas are being impacted in just about all areas due to the weather extremes. Delta crop conditions are called good. Cotton demand remains solid. Ideas are that Cotton demand can hold strong after a positive export sales report on Friday.
Overnight News: The Delta will get scattered showers and near to below normal temperatures and Southeast will get isolated showers and near normal temperatures. Texas will have isolated showers and below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 80.18 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 161,017 bales, from 160,287 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 8570, 8850, and 10010 July. Support is at 8360, 8280, and 8160 July, with resistance of 8650, 8870 and 9000 July.

Crop Progress
Date 7-Jun 1-Jun 2020 Avg
Cotton Planted 71 64 76 78
Cotton Squaring 9 6 12 11
Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 1 14 39 41 5
Cotton Last Week 1 18 38 38 5
Cotton Last Year 2 11 44 36 7

DJ U.S. April Cotton Exports-Jun 8
In kilograms and in running 480-pound bales. Source. U.S. Department
Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Apr 21 Mar 21 Feb 21 Apr 20
Upland, under 1 inch 15,961,073 29,075,913 14,109,703 15,456,112
1 to 1 1/8 inch 122,558,363 125,686,165 133,265,328 86,853,480
upland 1 1/8 and over 11,375,836 9,759,875 10,507,545 164,683,845
Amer pima, over 1 1/8 inc 195,222,401 191,947,541 184,273,849 6,164,247
All cotton 345,117,673 356,469,494 342,156,425 273,157,684
——- In Running 480-Pound Bales ——-
Apr 21 Mar 21 Feb 21 Apr 20
Upland, under 1 inch 73,309 133,545 64,805 70,989
1 to 1 1/8 inch 562,906 577,272 612,083 398,915
upland 1 1/8 and over 52,249 44,827 48,261 756,387
Amer pima, over 1 1/8 inc 896,649 881,608 846,363 28,312
All cotton 1,585,113 1,637,251 1,571,512 1,254,603

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher once again and made new highs for the move. Chart trends are up. The weather in Florida is good with isolated showers. The hurricane season is coming and a big storm could threaten trees and fruit. An active season is anticipated but that does not mean a big and damaging storm is coming. It does mean that the market will be on alert if one does show up. It is dry in Brazil and crop conditions are called good even with drier than normal soils. Stress to trees could return if the dry weather continues as is in the forecast. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production. It is dry in northern and western Mexican growing areas.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 126.00 and 140.00 July. Support is at 133.00, 130.00, and 118.060 July, with resistance at 126.00, 128.00, and 130.00 July.

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement and Pack – Jun 8
In mm ps, (million pounds solid). Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)
WEEK ENDING:
5/29/2021 Corresponding
Current Week Last
Week Season
5/29/2021 5/23/2020 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 280.80 326.95 -14.1%
Retail/Institutional 5.04 6.13 -17.8%
Total 285.84 333.08 -14.2%
Pack
Bulk 0.38 0.81 -53.5%
Retail/Institutional 0.93 0.74 25.6%
Total Pack 1.30 1.55 -15.7%
Reprocessed -1.30 -0.99 31.5%
Pack from Fruit 0.00 0.56 -100.0%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss 0.04 0.13 -65.2%
Imports – Foreign 2.89 4.17 -30.9%
Domestic Receipts 0.44 0.55 -20.9%
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 0.00 0.03 -100.0%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 0.00 0.00 NC
Reprocessed FCTJ 0.06 0.16 -61.9%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 283.30 331.80 -14.6%
Retail/Institutional 5.97 6.87 -13.2%
Total 289.27 338.68 -14.6%
MOVEMENT
Bulk
Domestic 4.83 3.95 22.4%
Exports 0.56 0.12 354.1%
Total (Bulk) 5.39 4.07 32.3%
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 1.18 0.77 53.7%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 1.18 0.77 53.7%
Total Movement 6.57 4.84 35.7%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 277.91 327.73 -15.2%
Retail/Institutional 4.79 6.10 -21.6%
Ending Inventory 282.70 333.83 -15.3%
Total Same
Total Season Period Last
To Date Season
29-May-21 23-May-20 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 254.09 311.95 -18.5%
Retail/Institutional 5.56 5.82 -4.5%
Total 259.65 317.77 -18.3%
Pack
Bulk 69.62 132.77 -47.6%
Retail/Institutional 34.79 36.91 -5.8%
Total Pack 104.40 169.68 -38.5%
Reprocessed -74.18 -87.67 -15.4%
Pack from Fruit 30.23 82.01 -63.1%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -0.74 -1.95 -62.1%
Imports – Foreign 160.02 108.93 46.9%
Domestic Receipts 9.29 11.52 -19.3%
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 1.18 0.28 315.1%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 6.58 16.43 -59.9%
Reprocessed FCTJ 1.41 1.47 -4.1%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 427.27 493.72 -13.5%
Retail/Institutional 40.35 42.74 -5.6%
Total 467.62 536.45 -12.8%
MOVEMENT
Bulk 135.62 162.04 -16.3%
Domestic 13.74 9.91 38.7%
Exports 149.36 171.95 -13.1%
Total (Bulk)
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 35.56 36.63 -2.9%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 35.56 36.63 -2.9%
Total Movement 184.92 208.58 -11.3%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 277.91 327.73 -15.2%
Retail/Institutional 4.79 6.10 -21.6%
Ending Inventory 282.70 333.83 -15.3%

COFFEE
General Comments: New York closed lower and London was higher as the growing conditions around the world were mixed. The return of dry and hot weather to some of the Brazil growing area was the reason for the buying, but reports of beneficial rains in parts of southern Minas Gerais in the last week caused selling. More showers are in the forecast for these areas this week, but development has been delayed and the initial harvest progress has been slowed. London was higher as Vietnam and Brazil Robusta areas stayed dry. The daily and weekly charts show mixed trends now in both markets but both markets have cleared some important resistance areas on the weekly charts and remain above these areas. Production conditions elsewhere in Latin America are mixed with good conditions reported in northern South America and improved conditions reported in Central America. Colombia is having trouble exporting Coffee right now due to protests inside the country. Conditions are reported to be generally good in Asia and Africa. Its turning a little dry in Southeast Asia including Vietnam, but a storm brought some beneficial precipitation in recent days.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 2.106 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 143.98 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers with above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 155.00, 153.00, and 150.00 July, and resistance is at 163.00, 166.00 and 169.00 July. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1660, 1680, and 1740 July. Support is at 1610, 1560, and 1530 July, and resistance is at 1660, 1690, and 1720 July.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London were lower yesterday on forecasts for better rains in southern Brazil production areas against overall dry conditions in Brazil and ideas of increasing demand for Sugarcane. Demand for ethanol should be increasing and could divert the cane processing to production of the ethanol and away from Sugar. There is plenty of White Sugar available in India for the market. Southern growing areas of Brazil are getting some beneficial rains, with Parana and parts of Sao Paulo getting the best rains. Production has been hurt due to dry weather earlier in the year. India is exporting Sugar and is reported to have a big cane crop this year. Thailand is expecting improved production after drought induced yield losses last year. Ethanol demand is returning to the market as more world economies open up after the pandemic.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1730, 1710, and 1670 October, and resistance is at 1790, 1820, and 1850 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 457.00, 450.00, and 447.00 August, and resistance is at 470.00, 482.00, and 486.00 August.

COCOA
General Comments: Both markets closed lower on follow through selling. The daily charts show sideways or down trends in both markets. The harvests are over in West Africa and ports there have been filled with Cocoa. The weather has been a little too dry for best production prospects for the next crop. European demand has been slow as the quarterly grind data showed a 3% decrease from a year ago in grindings. This has been caused by less demand created by the pandemic. Asian demand improved. North American data showed improved demand. The supplies are there for any increased demand. Ivory Coast Cocoa arrivals are now estimated at 1.997 million tons, from 1.881 million tons last year.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.604 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2290, 2210, and 2190 July. Support is at 2320, 2280, and 2020 July, with resistance at 2420, 2440, and 2460 July. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1580 and 1570 July. Support is at 1580, 1560, and 1540 July, with resistance at 1640, 1670, and 1690 July.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322