About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. Corn, Soybean Production Estimates — Survey
NEW YORK–The following are analysts’ estimates for 2021 U.S. corn and soybean production in millions of bushels, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates at noon on Thursday.
U.S. 2021 Production (million bushels, bushels per acre)
Average Range USDA May USDA 2020
Corn Production 15,018 14,990-15,218 14,990 14,182
Corn Yield 179.5 177.0-182.0 179.5 172.0
Soybean Production 4,414 4,405-4,498 4,405 4,135
Soybean Yield 50.8 50.5-51.0 50.8 50.2
Corn Soybean
Production Yield Production Yield
AgriSource 14,990 179.5 4,405 50.8
Allendale 14,990 179.5 4,405 50.8
DC Analysis 14,990 179.5 4,405 50.8
Doane 14,990 179.5 4,405 50.8
EDF Man 14,990 179.5 4,405 50.8
Futures Intl 15,218 182.0 4,423 51.0
Grain Cycles 14,990 179.5 4,405 50.8
Linn 15,075 177.0 4,449 50.5
Sid Love Consulting 14,990 179.5 4,405 50.8
Midland Research 14,990 179.5 4,405 50.8
Midwest Market Solutions 15,155 179.5 4,498 50.8
North Star 14,990 179.5 4,405 50.8
StoneX 14,990 179.5 4,405 50.8
US Commodities 14,990 179.5 4,405 50.8
Vantage RM 14,990 179.5 4,405 50.8
Western Milling 14,990 179.5 4,405 50.8
Zaner Ag Hedge 14,990 179.5 4,405 50.8

DJ U.S. June Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
NEW YORK–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for U.S. ending stockpiles for 2020-21 and 2021-22, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Thursday at noon ET.
U.S. Stockpiles (millions)
2020-21
Average Range USDA May
Corn 1,205 1,132-1,301 1,257
Soybeans 122 105-144 120
Wheat 868 847-902 872
2021-22
Average Range USDA May
Corn 1,414 1,282-1,516 1,507
Soybeans 139 117-170 140
Wheat 777 661-840 774
Corn Soybeans Wheat Corn Soybeans Wheat
AgriSource 1,157 115 872 1,307 135 774
Allendale 1,207 140 861 1,407 160 793
DC Analysis 1,132 120 872 1,282 140 800
Doane 1,140 120 856 1,450 140 763
EDF Man 1,206 120 866 1,406 140 798
Futures Intl 1,301 105 850 1,419 128 661
Grain Cycles 1,250 120 880 1,457 140 790
Linn 1,277 144 902 1,400 122 804
Sid Love Consulting 1,232 120 872 1,482 140 799
Midland Research 1,207 120 865 1,457 140 799
Midwest Market Solutions 1,186 114 857 1,371 117 809
Northstar 1,175 120 872 1,407 170 775
RJ O’Brien 1,161 132 862 1,516 136 803
StoneX 1,176 118 857 1,381 118 738
US Commodities 1,157 120 847 1,332 145 714
Vantage RM 1,232 120 872 1,482 140 774
Western Milling 1,232 120 896 1,482 140 840
Zaner Ag Hedge 1,257 125 868 1,407 155 754

DJ June World Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
NEW YORK–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for world grain and soybean ending stockpiles for 2020-21 and 2021-22, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Thursday at noon ET.
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2020-21
Average Range USDA May
Corn 280.1 276.0-283.0 283.5
Soybeans 86.7 85.8-87.6 86.6
Wheat 294.6 293.3-296.0 294.7
2021-22
Average Range USDA May
Corn 288.9 280.9-293.8 292.3
Soybeans 91.6 90.0-94.1 91.1
Wheat 295.2 288.1-300.0 295.0
2020-21 2021-22
Corn Soybeans Wheat Corn Soybeans Wheat
Allendale 281.2 86.9 295.2 289.2 91.7 294.5
EDF Man 282.0 87.0 295.0 290.0 91.0 296.0
Futures Intl 277.0 85.8 294.0 293.8 94.0 299.7
Grain Cycles 276.0 87.0 295.0 290.0 90.0 300.0
Linn 279.5 87.6 294.7 287.3 92.0 295.0
Midwest Market Solutions 283.0 86.1 294.5 292.1 91.1 294.3
Northstar 280.0 87.0 295.0 290.0 91.0 293.0
StoneX 279.8 86.3 293.4 280.9 90.3 288.1
US Commodities 281.5 86.5 294.0 285.3 91.5 294.0
Western Milling 279.5 86.5 296.0 290.0 91.0 300.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 281.9 87.2 293.3 289.7 94.1 292.8

DJ June Brazil, Argentina Corn, Soybean Production Estimates – Survey
NEW YORK–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for Brazil and Argentina corn and soybean production for 2020-21, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates on Thursday at noon ET.
Brazil Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA May
Corn 97.0 89.7-103.0 102.0
Soybeans 136.2 135.7-137.0 136.0
Corn Soybeans
Allendale 98.0 136.0
DC Analysis 95.0 136.0
Doane 95.0 136.0
EDF Man 98.0 136.0
Futures Intl 103.0 136.0
Linn 94.0 136.0
Midland Research 95.0 136.0
Midwest Market Solutions 100.0 136.5
North Star 97.0 136.5
StoneX 89.7 135.7
US Commodities 99.0 137.0
Western Milling 97.0 137.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 100.5 136.0
Argentina Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA May
Corn 47.1 46.0-48.0 47.0
Soybeans 46.5 45.0-47.5 47.0
Corn Soybeans
Allendale 47.0 45.0
DC Analysis 46.5 46.0
Doane 47.0 46.0
EDF Man 47.0 47.0
Futures Intl 47.0 47.5
Linn 48.0 46.0
Midland Research 46.0 47.0
Midwest Market Solutions 47.0 47.0
North Star 47.5 47.5
StoneX 47.5 45.0
US Commodities 47.0 46.0
Western Milling 47.0 47.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 47.5 47.0

DJ U.S. Wheat Production Estimates — Survey
NEW YORK–The following are analysts’ estimates for 2021-22 U.S. wheat production, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated production forecasts at noon on Thursday.
2021-22 WHEAT PRODUCTION
Average Range USDA May USDA 2020-21
All Wheat 1,890 1,850-1,919 1,872 1,826
Winter Wheat 1,306 1,278-1,333 1,283 1,171
Hard Red Winter 757 731-786 731 659
Soft Red Winter 336 316-350 332 266
White Winter 213 195-246 220 246
All Wheat Winter Wheat Hard-Red Soft-Red White
Allendale 1,917 1,333 762 325 246
DC Analysis 1,899 1,310 775 340 195
Doane 1,900 1,311 766 340 205
EDF Man 1,892 1,300 750 345 205
Futures Intl 1,919 1,294 749 316 229
Grain Cycles 1,850 1,280 740 325 215
Linn 1,870 1,290 735 335 220
Sid Love Consulting 1,897 1,322 770 332 220
Midland Research 1,904 1,315 770 334 211
Midwest Market Solutions 1,863 1,285 740 335 210
North Star 1,890 1,330 780 350 200
RJ O’Brien 1,888 1,319 786 337 196
StoneX 1,891 1,331 771 345 215
US Commodities 1,875 1,278 731 332 215
Vantage RM 1,872 1,283 731 332 220
Western Milling 1,914 1,325 775 350 200
Zaner Ag 1887 1298 741 335 222

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were mixed, with Winter Wheat markets mostly a little higher and Minneapolis Spring markets lower as the weather forecasts turned wetter for Canada and remained too wet in the central and southern Great Plains. Spring Wheat areas of the US and Canada should get some showers, but mostly in Canada. Showers and rains were seen in parts of Western Texas and in Oklahoma. More showers are in the forecast in western Texas. Some rains would be very beneficial for planting and initial growth of the Spring Wheat while the drier but still wet weather would help Winter Wheat crops. Demand remains disappointing but the production might not be there for better demand in the coming year. Corn prices are high so demand for feed wheat could increase.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 679, 669, and 667 July, with resistance at 702, 704, and 707 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 618, 606, and 588 July, with resistance at 654, 675, and 683 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 760, 738, and 730 July, and resistance is at 807, 824, and 830 July.

RICE
General Comments: Rice prices were lower in moderate volume trading on demand concerns. It looked like speculators were the best sellers. Moderate precipitation and warmer temperatures are forecast for US growing areas. Rice areas have generally been wet and northern areas have been cool. Louisiana and parts of Texas are saturated but crops are rated in good condition overall. Warm temperatures are reported in Arkansas and Missouri and the crop progress is improving. Texas and Louisiana are almost out of Rice, but there is Rice available in the other states, especially Arkansas. Milling interest in Rice is said to be slow.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1291 and 1273 July. Support is at 1311, 1309, and 1302 July, with resistance at 1325, 1333, and 1328 July.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Jun 9
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 17.40 11.13 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 17.02 11.37 0.00
Brokens 11.04 —- —-

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed higher as forecasts for the Midwest remained hot and dry for northern areas, but rainy to the southern Midwest. Hot and dry weather is forecast for parts of the Great Plains and Midwest this week and hot and dry conditions continue in central and northern Brazil. Some showers are now in the forecast for the Midwest in the second week. Longer range forecasts released by NWS call for warmer and drier weather for many important US growing areas this Summer. There are problems with the production potential for the Safrinha crop in Brazil as growing areas have been warm and dry and look to stay that way longer term. Reports indicate that crops are being stressed due to the lack of rain. It is drier in central and parts of northern Brazil, but southern Safrinha areas got some timely and somewhat beneficial precipitation last week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 666, 653, and 637 July, and resistance is at 697, 703, and 718 July. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 402, 416, and 448 July. Support is at 399, 387, and 378 July, and resistance is at 414, 417, and 423 July.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher in range trading as weather and demand concerns returned to the forefront. Forecasts call for warm and dry weather this week in the northern Midwest and northern Great Plains but showers are in the forecast for much of this week in central and southern areas. China should start with new US Soybeans purchases soon for Fall delivery and reports indicate they are now asking for offers. The longer range forecasts from NWS call for warmer and drier than normal conditions for most Soybeans areas of the US. There is still crush demand and a little export demand even though the demand is less now than before. The US does not have a lot of Soybeans in the country anymore as most producers have already sold. Buyers are scrambling for what is left. Brazil is rapidly exporting Soybeans.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1542, 1538, and 1525 July, and resistance is at 1597, 1610, and 1640 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 386.00, 378.00, and 372.00 July, and resistance is at 396.00, 404.00, and 407.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 7030, 6870, and 6720 July, with resistance at 7280, 7340, and 7370 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower today on ideas of increasing production and stocks levels. MPOB should be out tomorrow with its latest monthly data. There were reports that Indonesia was about to cut its Palm Oil export duty. There are fears of global shortages of vegetable oils now. Demand has been less so far this month and the market fears the loss of Indian demand due to the big Coronavirus outbreak in India that could cut demand. However, prices are very high in India and imports are needed. Ideas of tight supplies are still around but supplies are expected to increase in the short term. Canola closed mixed, with nearby months lower and deferred months higher. Canola was mostly higher on price action in Chicago and despite forecasts for wetter weather in growing areas. July was lower. Weakening demand ideas were negative for prices as were ideas that the Canadian Dollar is ready to move much higher. Demand is thought to be OK with crush margins favoring a lot of production of vegetable oils to feed the demand but less exports. The demand for bio fuels is about to increase and is one reason to see much stronger Soybean Oil and Canola prices.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 852.00 and 813.00 July. Support is at 848.00, 837.00, and 828.00 July, with resistance at 890.00, 918.00, and 920.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3910, 3830, and 3780 August, with resistance at 4110, 4200, and 4320 August.

Midwest Weather Forecast: mostly dry. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May +97 July +160 May +95 May +74 May
June +88 July +60 July +85 July
July +63 July +65 July +71 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jun 8
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 921.60 39.20 July 2021 up 8.00
Basis: Thunder Bay 864.20 90.00 Nov. 2021 up 2.60
Basis: Vancouver 879.20 105.00 Nov. 2021 up 2.60
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – June 9
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 1072.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jul 1047.50 — Unquoted – –
Aug/Sep 1017.50 — Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 957.50 -25.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 1075.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jul 1050.00 — Unquoted – –
Aug/Sep 1020.00 — Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 960.00 -25.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 1055.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 965.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 4,200.00 -50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 322.00 -01. 00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.117)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jun 09
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 165,377 lots, or 9.62 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-21 5,780 5,812 5,729 5,729 5,791 5,774 -17 30 2,288
Sep-21 5,828 5,866 5,770 5,783 5,840 5,812 -28 142,075 106,186
Nov-21 5,799 5,890 5,791 5,800 5,858 5,839 -19 15,338 25,502
Jan-22 5,879 5,915 5,823 5,838 5,889 5,865 -24 5,939 13,027
Mar-22 5,894 5,939 5,852 5,865 5,912 5,897 -15 1,936 8,214
May-22 5,936 5,955 5,889 5,901 5,945 5,922 -23 59 371
Corn
Turnover: 561,815 lots, or 15.09 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-21 2,715 2,742 2,715 2,739 2,715 2,726 11 6,179 36,040
Sep-21 2,689 2,712 2,679 2,707 2,688 2,691 3 415,042 549,904
Nov-21 2,657 2,669 2,648 2,664 2,656 2,656 0 65,563 210,409
Jan-22 2,673 2,682 2,663 2,676 2,670 2,670 0 53,430 141,859
Mar-22 2,676 2,695 2,668 2,680 2,674 2,675 1 20,356 39,525
May-22 2,669 2,682 2,665 2,677 2,671 2,671 0 1,245 5,298
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,562,227 lots, or 56.59 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-21 3,517 3,553 3,497 3,519 3,521 3,520 -1 18,354 62,316
Aug-21 3,605 3,654 3,597 3,614 3,610 3,627 17 8,859 17,658
Sep-21 3,615 3,658 3,600 3,619 3,614 3,629 15 1,130,676 1,250,252
Nov-21 3,618 3,665 3,610 3,628 3,620 3,640 20 51,394 26,288
Dec-21 3,624 3,669 3,616 3,623 3,627 3,641 14 5,037 12,612
Jan-22 3,620 3,661 3,601 3,610 3,621 3,629 8 286,010 409,565
Mar-22 3,473 3,516 3,446 3,449 3,473 3,480 7 49,517 217,230
May-22 3,414 3,459 3,400 3,401 3,415 3,427 12 12,380 20,635
Palm Oil
Turnover: 904,021 lots, or 69.90 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jun-21 – – – 9,280 9,280 9,280 0 0 0
Jul-21 8,390 8,390 8,382 8,382 8,428 8,384 -44 3 260
Aug-21 – – – 8,192 8,192 8,192 0 0 108
Sep-21 7,692 7,842 7,642 7,664 7,822 7,754 -68 821,400 376,234
Oct-21 7,708 7,788 7,594 7,622 7,774 7,702 -72 15,155 23,970
Nov-21 7,698 7,736 7,546 7,572 7,730 7,664 -66 3,687 27,552
Dec-21 7,588 7,648 7,464 7,468 7,652 7,576 -76 3,276 35,917
Jan-22 7,430 7,540 7,352 7,380 7,538 7,452 -86 53,338 71,557
Feb-22 7,370 7,474 7,294 7,318 7,480 7,396 -84 4,289 4,818
Mar-22 7,392 7,474 7,282 7,282 7,416 7,392 -24 1,473 2,074
Apr-22 7,394 7,470 7,298 7,304 7,440 7,390 -50 666 1,575
May-22 7,356 7,468 7,300 7,324 7,448 7,384 -64 734 2,339
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 938,526 lots, or 82.35 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-21 9,250 9,282 9,150 9,150 9,254 9,182 -72 90 1,008
Aug-21 8,806 9,030 8,806 8,902 9,076 8,952 -124 22 310
Sep-21 8,766 8,864 8,694 8,722 8,884 8,792 -92 853,930 490,537
Nov-21 8,680 8,748 8,586 8,598 8,770 8,672 -98 16,302 37,988
Dec-21 8,644 8,692 8,538 8,540 8,744 8,614 -130 2,819 59,709
Jan-22 8,562 8,638 8,478 8,506 8,668 8,572 -96 62,066 94,580
Mar-22 8,426 8,514 8,360 8,368 8,520 8,456 -64 2,504 9,905
May-22 8,348 8,428 8,286 8,292 8,392 8,352 -40 793 2,222
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322