About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower in all three markets as the weather forecasts turned wetter for Canada and remained too wet in the central and southern Great Plains. Spring Wheat areas of the US and Canada should get some showers, but mostly in Canada. Showers and rains were seen in parts of Western Texas and in Oklahoma. More showers are in the forecast in western Texas but it will be drier overall. Some rains would be very beneficial for planting and initial growth of the Spring Wheat while the drier but still wet weather would help Winter Wheat crops. Demand remains disappointing but the production might not be there for better demand in the coming year. Corn prices are high so demand for feed wheat could increase.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see isolateds. Temperatures will be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 669, 667, and 658 July, with resistance at 702, 704, and 707 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 618, 606, and 588 July, with resistance at 647, 653, and 675 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 778, 761, and 738 July, and resistance is at 807, 824, and 830 July.

RICE
General Comments: Rice prices were a little lower in slow trading. It looked like speculators were the best sellers. Moderate precipitation and warmer temperatures are forecast for US growing areas. Rice areas have generally been wet and northern areas have been cool. Louisiana and parts of Texas are saturated. Warm temperatures are finally spreading north into Arkansas and Missouri and the crop progress is improving. Texas and Louisiana are almost out of Rice, but there is Rice available in the other states, especially Arkansas. Milling interest in Rice is said to be slow.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1320, 1311, and 1309 July, with resistance at 1333, 1338, and 1344 July.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed mixed to higher and Oats closed higher as forecasts for the Midwest remained hot and dry for northern areas, but rainy to the southern Midwest. Hot and dry weather is forecast for parts of the Great Plains and Midwest this week and hot and dry conditions continue in central and northern Brazil. Some showers are now in the forecast for the Midwest in the second week. Longer range forecasts released by NWS call for warmer and drier weather for many important US growing areas this Summer. There are problems with the production potential for the Safrinha crop in Brazil as growing areas have been warm and dry and look to stay that way longer term. Reports indicate that crops are being stressed due to the lack of rain. It is drier in central and parts of northern Brazil, but southern Safrinha areas got some timely and somewhat beneficial precipitation last week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 666, 653, and 637 July, and resistance is at 697, 703, and 718 July. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 402, 416, and 448 July. Support is at 387, 378, and 375 July, and resistance is at 408, 423, and 426 July.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were mixed with nearby months of Soybeans and all months of Soybean Meal lower and new crop months and Soybean Oil higher. Forecasts call for warm and dry weather this week in the northern Midwest and northern Great Plains but showers are in the forecast for much of this week in central and southern areas. China should start with new US Soybeans purchases soon for Fall delivery and reports indicate they are now asking for offers. The longer range forecasts from NWS call for warmer and drier than normal conditions for most Soybeans areas of the US. There is still crush demand and a little export demand even though the demand is less now than before. The US does not have a lot of Soybeans in the country anymore as most producers have already sold. Buyers are scrambling for what is left. Brazil is rapidly exporting Soybeans.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1542, 1538, and 1525 July, and resistance is at 1589, 1610, and 1640 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 389.00, 386.00, and 378.00 July, and resistance is at 396.00, 404.00, and 407.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 7050, 6870, and 6720 July, with resistance at 7210, 7280, and 7340 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower today on ideas of increasing production and stocks levels. There are fears of global shortages of vegetable oils now. Demand has been less so far this month and the market fears the loss of Indian demand due to the big Coronavirus outbreak in India that could cut demand. However, prices are very high in India and imports are needed. Ideas of tight supplies are still around but supplies are expected to increase in the short term. Canola closed mixed, with nearby months lower and deferred months higher. Canola was in a trading range on forecasts for wetter weather in growing areas against some showers reported in growing areas last week. Weakening demand ideas were negative for prices as were ideas that the Canadian Dollar is ready to move much higher. Demand is thought to be OK with crush margins favoring a lot of production of vegetable oils to feed the demand but less exports. The demand for bio fuels is about to increase and is one reason to see much stronger Soybean Oil and Canola prices.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 848.00, 837.00, and 828.00 July, with resistance at 920.00, 962.00, and 966.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 4390 and 5620 July. Support is at 4110, 3970, and 3850 August, with resistance at 4200, 4320, and 4420 August.

Midwest Weather Forecast: mostly dry. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May +97 July +160 May +95 May +74 May
June +88 July +60 July +85 July
July +63 July +65 July +71 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jun 7
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 913.60 9.20 July 2021 up 19.90
Basis: Thunder Bay 861.60 90.00 Nov. 2021 up 8.00
Basis: Vancouver 876.60 105.00 Nov. 2021 up 8.00
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-9084

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – June 8
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 1082.50 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1052.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 982.50 -15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 1085.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1055.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 985.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 1075.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 985.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 4,250.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 323.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.118)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jun 08
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 211,428 lots, or 12.36 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-21 5,787 5,835 5,760 5,780 5,866 5,791 -75 70 2,296
Sep-21 5,910 5,927 5,781 5,828 5,901 5,840 -61 176,645 98,693
Nov-21 5,927 5,960 5,809 5,838 5,927 5,858 -69 24,466 25,605
Jan-22 5,966 5,974 5,836 5,876 5,947 5,889 -58 7,270 12,948
Mar-22 5,969 5,969 5,867 5,904 5,973 5,912 -61 2,910 8,280
May-22 5,960 5,994 5,910 5,929 6,002 5,945 -57 67 363
Corn
Turnover: 702,716 lots, or 18.85 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-21 2,741 2,741 2,701 2,720 2,737 2,715 -22 7,616 38,629
Sep-21 2,705 2,708 2,670 2,689 2,714 2,688 -26 525,170 555,877
Nov-21 2,671 2,671 2,643 2,657 2,673 2,656 -17 76,158 213,924
Jan-22 2,690 2,690 2,658 2,673 2,687 2,670 -17 52,261 137,807
Mar-22 2,689 2,691 2,663 2,681 2,692 2,674 -18 39,872 38,990
May-22 2,681 2,691 2,662 2,672 2,687 2,671 -16 1,639 5,168
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,550,292 lots, or 55.96 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-21 3,540 3,550 3,495 3,521 3,508 3,521 13 29,846 61,920
Aug-21 3,637 3,653 3,582 3,613 3,595 3,610 15 9,908 17,439
Sep-21 3,643 3,647 3,584 3,615 3,599 3,614 15 1,175,397 1,220,341
Nov-21 3,647 3,655 3,576 3,624 3,611 3,620 9 32,567 24,765
Dec-21 3,656 3,660 3,583 3,631 3,617 3,627 10 4,409 11,867
Jan-22 3,635 3,645 3,593 3,620 3,608 3,621 13 252,492 406,026
Mar-22 3,482 3,502 3,446 3,473 3,452 3,473 21 35,661 207,722
May-22 3,432 3,438 3,390 3,417 3,401 3,415 14 10,012 18,460
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,004,272 lots, or 78.37 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jun-21 – – – 9,280 9,280 9,280 0 0 0
Jul-21 8,500 8,552 8,340 8,348 8,604 8,428 -176 16 261
Aug-21 – – – 8,192 8,192 8,192 0 0 108
Sep-21 7,964 8,006 7,642 7,656 8,020 7,822 -198 924,718 387,904
Oct-21 7,926 7,954 7,598 7,598 7,962 7,774 -188 12,386 23,459
Nov-21 7,880 7,912 7,556 7,588 7,912 7,730 -182 4,714 27,066
Dec-21 7,844 7,844 7,476 7,476 7,844 7,652 -192 2,891 35,621
Jan-22 7,694 7,726 7,368 7,376 7,746 7,538 -208 51,200 70,036
Feb-22 7,634 7,684 7,310 7,310 7,666 7,480 -186 5,155 4,686
Mar-22 7,658 7,658 7,308 7,314 7,654 7,416 -238 1,118 1,991
Apr-22 7,546 7,578 7,300 7,358 7,654 7,440 -214 733 1,493
May-22 7,648 7,648 7,308 7,316 7,710 7,448 -262 1,341 2,291
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,125,636 lots, or 99.75 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-21 9,368 9,428 9,142 9,142 9,532 9,254 -278 157 1,025
Aug-21 9,158 9,158 8,984 8,984 9,270 9,076 -194 12 321
Sep-21 9,006 9,056 8,712 8,736 9,048 8,884 -164 994,908 500,207
Nov-21 8,918 8,934 8,602 8,626 8,930 8,770 -160 24,109 38,474
Dec-21 8,844 8,878 8,550 8,556 8,844 8,744 -100 3,965 59,210
Jan-22 8,782 8,824 8,496 8,522 8,804 8,668 -136 99,421 93,209
Mar-22 8,678 8,688 8,378 8,384 8,654 8,520 -134 2,043 9,118
May-22 8,568 8,568 8,288 8,306 8,478 8,392 -86 1,021 1,997
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
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