About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Futures were higher Friday and for the week. Trends are still up on the daily charts. Cotton growing conditions have improved with rains reported in West Texas and the Delta. The forecasts for the Panhandle region of Texas are now turning dry again and it could turn hot. It is drier in the Southeast production areas, but some rains are in the forecast for the coming week. Delta crop conditions are called good. Ideas are that Cotton demand can hold strong after a positive export sales report on Friday.
Overnight News: The Delta will get scattered showers and near to below normal temperatures and Southeast will get isolated showers and near normal temperatures. Texas will have isolated showers and below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 81.62 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 160,287 bales, from 150,153 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 8570, 8850, and 10010 July. Support is at 8360, 8280, and 8160 July, with resistance of 8650, 8870 and 9000 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 01, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 292,507
: Positions :
: 54,305 10,063 67,149 63,514 195,040 90,057 11,146 275,026 283,397: 17,482 9,110
: Changes from: May 25, 2021 (Change in open interest: 10,031) :
: 2,232 84 4,098 3,380 5,909 -1,474 84 8,236 10,175: 1,796 -144
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 18.6 3.4 23.0 21.7 66.7 30.8 3.8 94.0 96.9: 6.0 3.1
: Total Traders: 266 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 109 43 89 53 59 40 21 234 186:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher once again last week and chart trends are still up. The weather in Florida is good with isolated showers. The hurricane season is coming and a big storm could threaten trees and fruit. An active season is anticipated but that does not mean a big and damaging storm is coming. It does mean that the market will be on alert if one does show up. It is dry in Brazil and crop conditions are called good even with drier than normal soils. Stress to trees could return if the dry weather continues as is in the forecast. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production. It is dry in northern and western Mexican growing areas.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 126.00 and 140.00 July. Support is at 118.00, 117.00, and 115.00 July, with resistance at 122.00, 126.00, and 128.00 July.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of June 1, 2021
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 15,160 :
: Positions :
: 4,827 8,339 2,038 85 0 1,374 2,635 279 1,482 624 1,761 :
: Changes from: May 25, 2021 :
: -930 317 -24 0 0 48 -481 105 58 62 -27 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 31.8 55.0 13.4 0.6 0.0 9.1 17.4 1.8 9.8 4.1 11.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 64 :
: 15 13 6 . 0 7 11 4 15 5 6 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: New York closed a little lower and London was higher for the week after trading both sides of unchanged as the growing conditions around the world were mixed. The return of dry and hot weather to some of the Brazil growing area was the reason for the buying, but reports of beneficial rains in parts of southern Minas Gerais in the last week were noted. More showers are in the forecast for these areas this week, but development has been delayed and the initial harvest progress has been slowed. London was lower as Vietnam got rains and Brazil Robusta areas stayed dry. The daily and weekly charts show mixed trends now in both markets but both markets have cleared some important resistance areas on the weekly charts and remain above these areas. Most Brazil Coffee areas should stay dry for at least the next week although a few showers are possible in southern Minas Gerais again. It will be cool but not cold with most of the colder air coming in the second half of the week. It is also the second year of the production cycle so production will be less, anyway. Production conditions elsewhere in Latin America are mixed with good conditions reported in northern South America and improved conditions reported in Central America. Colombia is having trouble exporting Coffee right now due to protests inside the country. Conditions are reported to be generally good in Asia and Africa. Its turning a little dry in Southeast Asia including Vietnam, but a storm brought some beneficial precipitation in recent days.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 2.096 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 144.56 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers with above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 155.00, 153.00, and 150.00 July, and resistance is at 162.00, 166.00 and 169.00 July. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1660 July. Support is at 1560, 1530, and 1520 July, and resistance is at 1630, 1660, and 1690 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 01, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 376,834
: Positions :
: 60,859 18,703 114,643 93,646 217,611 92,788 16,640 361,937 367,597: 14,898 9,237
: Changes from: May 25, 2021 (Change in open interest: 15,101) :
: 2,938 -3,808 12,070 107 3,917 -631 1,907 14,484 14,086: 618 1,015
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 16.2 5.0 30.4 24.9 57.7 24.6 4.4 96.0 97.5: 4.0 2.5
: Total Traders: 469 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 200 60 149 121 129 44 22 426 316:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 06/01/2021
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
151,630 42,507 87,616 11,561 13,874 4,342
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 28.0% 57.8% 7.6% 9.2% 2.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
159 50 46 9 7 9
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
39,251 4,475 13,343 10,695 1,852 22,887
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
25.9% 3.0% 8.8% 7.1% 1.2% 15.1%
Number of Traders in Each Category
48 7 22 19 11 19
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
7,044 3,241
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.6% 2.1%

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London spent most of tbe week in a trading range on forecasts for better rains in southern Brazil production areas and a stronger US Dollar against overall dry conditions in Brazil and ideas of increasing demand for Sugarcane. Demand for ethanol should be increasing and could divert the cane processing to production of the ethanol and away from Sugar. There is plenty of White Sugar available in India for the market. Southern growing areas of Brazil are getting some beneficial rains, with Parana and parts of Sao Paulo getting the best rains. Production has been hurt due to dry weather earlier in the year. The seasonal crush is off to a slow start and Sugar content of the cane is reduced in initial industry reports from the center-south of Brazil. India is exporting Sugar and is reported to have a big cane crop this year. Thailand is expecting improved production after drought induced yield losses last year. Ethanol demand is returning to the market as more world economies open up after the pandemic.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1730, 1710, and 1670 October, and resistance is at 1790, 1820, and 1850 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 450.00, 447.00, and 444.00 August, and resistance is at 465.00, 470.00, and 482.00 August.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 01, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,227,921
: Positions :
: 216,589 30,533 255,712 357,152 815,788 296,517 81,983 1,125,970 1,184,016: 101,951 43,905
: Changes from: May 25, 2021 (Change in open interest: 21,912) :
: 19,431 -3,892 5,306 -1,838 15,066 -6,621 3,635 16,278 20,115: 5,633 1,797
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 17.6 2.5 20.8 29.1 66.4 24.1 6.7 91.7 96.4: 8.3 3.6
: Total Traders: 250 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 89 23 66 81 79 39 18 233 168:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 06/01/2021
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
82,772 35,246 68,137 11,186 2,716 2,246
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 42.6% 82.3% 13.5% 3.3% 2.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
107 33 38 10 4 6
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
22,169 2,575 3,922 1,291 0 1,046
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
26.8% 3.1% 4.7% 1.6% 0.0% 1.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
24 9 8 8 0 7
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,666 2,130
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
6.8% 2.6%

COCOA
General Comments: New York closed lower on follow through selling while London closed a little higher on currency considerations. The daily charts show sideways or down trends in both markets. The harvests are over in West Africa and ports there have been filled with Cocoa. The weather has been a little too dry for best production prospects for the next crop. European demand has been slow as the quarterly grind data showed a 3% decrease from a year ago in grindings. This has been caused by less demand created by the pandemic. Asian demand improved. North American data showed improved demand. The supplies are there for any increased demand.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.510 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2390, 360, and 2280 July, with resistance at 2440, 2460, and 2470 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1600, 1580, and 1560 July, with resistance at 1640, 1670, and 1690 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 01, 2021
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 235,652
: Positions :
: 23,122 28,095 61,638 88,271 125,437 50,622 13,723 223,653 228,893: 11,999 6,759
: Changes from: May 25, 2021 (Change in open interest: 3,152) :
: 4,558 193 -1,590 847 7,722 -1,120 -2,611 2,695 3,714: 457 -562
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.8 11.9 26.2 37.5 53.2 21.5 5.8 94.9 97.1: 5.1 2.9
: Total Traders: 205 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 62 52 69 45 39 33 18 179 147:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 06/01/2021
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
257,182 153,423 168,098 32,560 17,917 9,005
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 59.7% 65.4% 12.7% 7.0% 3.5%
Number of Traders in Each Category
125 47 38 12 5 11
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
10,205 13,291 18,253 3,821 286 27,071
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.0% 5.2% 7.1% 1.5% 0.1% 10.5%
Number of Traders in Each Category
18 16 11 12 6 18
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
2,844 3,261
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.1% 1.3%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322