Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Futures were higher yesterday in range trading. Trends are still up on the daily charts. Cotton growing conditions have improved with rains reported in West Texas and the Delta. The forecasts for the Panhandle region of Texas are now turning dry again and it could turn hot. It is drier in the Southeast production areas, but some rains are in the forecast for the coming week. Delta crop conditions are called good. Ideas are that Cotton demand can hold strong.
Overnight News: The Delta will get scattered showers and near to below normal temperatures and Southeast will get isolated showers and near normal temperatures. Texas will have isolated showers and below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 80.03 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 150,153 bales, from 146,886 bales yesterday. USDA said that net Upland Cotton weekly export sales were 180,800 bales this year and 98,800 bales next year. Net Pima sales were 7,300 bales this year and 0 bales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 8570, 8850, and 10010 July. Support is at 8280, 8160, and 8120 July, with resistance of 8480, 8610 and 8650 July.
General Comments: FCOJ closed a little higher once again and chart trends are still up. The weather in Florida is good with isolated showers. The hurricane season is coming and a big storm could threaten trees and fruit. An active season is anticipated but that does not mean a big and damaging storm is coming. It does mean that the market will be on alert if one does show up. It is dry in Brazil and crop conditions are called good even with drier than normal soils. Stress to trees could return if the dry weather continues as is in the forecast. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production. It is dry in northern and western Mexican growing areas.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 126.00 and 140.00 July. Support is at 118.00, 117.00, and 115.00 July, with resistance at 122.00, 126.00, and 128.00 July.
General Comments: New York and London closed lower as the growing conditions around the world were forecast to improve. The return of dry and hot weather to some of the Brazil growing area was the reason for the buying, but reports of beneficial rains in parts of southern Minas Gerais in the last week were noted. More showers are in the forecast for these areas. London was lower as Vietnam got rains and Brazil Robusta areas stayed dry. The daily and weekly charts show mixed trends now in both markets but both markets have cleared some important resistance areas on the weekly charts and remain abve these areas. Most Brazil Coffee areas should stay dry for at least the next week although a few showers are possible in southern Minas Gerais again. It will be cool but not cold. It is also the second year of the production cycle so production will be less, anyway. Production conditions elsewhere in Latin America are mixed with good conditions reported in northern South America and improved conditions reported in Central America. Colombia is having trouble exporting Coffee right now due to protests inside the country. Conditions are reported to be generally good in Asia and Africa. Its turning a little dry in Southeast Asia including Vietnam, but a storm brought some beneficial precipitation in recent days.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 2.079 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 141.59 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers with above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 155.00, 153.00, and 150.00 July, and resistance is at 161.00, 166.00 and 169.00 July. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1660 July. Support is at 1560, 1530, and 1520 July, and resistance is at 1630, 1660, and 1690 July.
DJ Brazil Coffee Harvest At 20% Amid Delays by Arabica Growers — Market Talk
08:50 ET – Brazil coffee growers finished harvesting in 20% of the area planted as of June 1, according to agricultural consultancy Safras & Mercado. That’s a bit behind the 23% five-year average for the date, partly because some arabica growers are delaying harvesting as the coffee develops further, Safras says. Arabica harvesting reached 13% of the area planted with that variety, behind the 18% five-year average, while the robusta harvest reached 31%, behind the 38% average for that variety. Brazil is the world’s biggest producer of arabica coffee, and the second biggest grower of robusta, after Vietnam. Brazilian crop agency Conab last week forecast a total coffee crop of 48.8M 132-pound bags for the 2021 season. (email@example.com)
General Comments: New York and London were both lower on forecasts for better rains in southern Brazil production areas and a stronger US Dollar. Demand for ethanol should be increasing and could divert the cane processing to production of the ethanol and away from Sugar. There is plenty of White Sugar available in India for the market. Southern growing areas of Brazil are getting some beneficial rains, with Parana and parts of Sao Paulo getting the best rains. Production has been hurt due to dry weather earlier in the year. The seasonal crush is off to a slow start and Sugar content of the cane is reduced in initial industry reports from the center-south of Brazil. India is exporting Sugar and is reported to have a big cane crop this year. Thailand is expecting improved production after drought induced yield losses last year. Ethanol demand is returning to the market as more world economies open up after the pandemic.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1710, 1690, and 1680 July, and resistance is at 1790, 1820, and 1830 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 450.00, 447.00, and 444.00 August, and resistance is at 465.00, 470.00, and 482.00 August.
General Comments: New York closed lower on follow through selling while London closed a little higher on currency considerations. The daily charts show sideways or down trends in both markets. The harvests are over in West Africa and ports there have been filled with Cocoa. The weather has been a little too dry for best production prospects for the next crop. European demand has been slow as the quarterly grind data showed a 3% decrease from a year ago in grindings. This has been caused by less demand created by the pandemic. Asian demand improved. North American data showed improved demand. The supplies are there for any increased demand.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.447 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2390, 360, and 2280 July, with resistance at 2460, 2470, and 2490 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1600, 1580, and 1560 July, with resistance at 1640, 1670, and 1690 July.