About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were lower in all three markets as the weather forecasts turned wetter. Spring Wheat areas pf the US and Canada should be hot and dry for the next several days, but then some showers are possible in the region. Showers and rains were seen in parts of Western Texas and in Oklahoma. More showers are in the forecast in western Texas. These rains should be very beneficial for planting and initial growth of the Spring Wheat while the drier but still wet weather should help Winter Wheat crops. Demand remains disappointing but the production might not be there for better demand in the coming year. Corn prices are high so demand for feed wheat could increase.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 719 and 759 July. Support is at 667, 659, and 658 July, with resistance at 702, 707, and 718 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 618, 606, and 588 July, with resistance at 647, 653, and 677 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 761, 744, and 738 July, and resistance is at 802, 807, and 810 July.

RICE
General Comments: Rice prices were mixed and little chjanged in slow trading yesterday. Moderate precipitation and warmer temperatures are forecast for US growing areas. Rice areas have generally been wet and northern areas have been cool. Louisiana and parts of Texas are saturated. Warm temperatures are finally spreading north into Arkansas and Missouri and the crop progress is improving. Texas and Louisiana are almost out of Rice, but there is Rice available in the other states, especially Arkansas. Milling interest in Rice is said to be slow.

Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1320, 1311, and 1309 July, with resistance at 1338, 1344, and 1347 July.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed lower as forecasts for the Midwest changed. July Corn was the weakest on ideas that Chinese demand is satisfied for now. Hot and dry weather is forecast for the Great Plains and Midwest this week and hot and dry conditions continue in central and northern Brazil. Some showers are now in the forecast for the Midwest in the second week. Longer range forecasts released by NWS call for warmer and drier weather for many important US growing areas this Summer. There are problems with the production potential for the Safrinha crop in Brazil as growing areas have been warm and dry and look to stay that way longer term. Reports indicate that crops are being stressed due to the lack of rain. It is drier in central and parts of northern Brazil, but southern Safrinha areas got some timely and somewhat beneficial precipitation last week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 653, 637, and 633 July, and resistance is at 697, 703, and 718 July. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 368, 364, and 358 July, and resistance is at 388, 400, and 406 July.

DJ U.S. Ethanol Inventories Climb, Defying Analysts’ Expectations
By Kirk Maltais
U.S. ethanol inventories have built up from the previous week, defying analyst forecasts that inventories would continue to decline.
In the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s latest report, ethanol inventories for the week ended May 28 rose 608,000 barrels to 19.59 million barrels. This is well above the forecasts of analysts surveyed by Dow Jones this week, who had predicted stocks to fall to as low as 18.5 million barrels for the week.
Last week, the decline seen in ethanol stockpiles brought overall inventories down to a low unseen since late 2016.
Meanwhile, weekly production through May 28 rose 23,000 barrels to 1.03 million barrels per day. This is slightly more than forecast by analysts, who had expected production to grow to between 1.01 million barrels and 1.02 million barrels for the week.
Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower. Forecasts for hot and dry weather this week in the Midwest and Great Plains but rains are in the forecast for next week. China should start with new US Soybeans purchases soon for Fall delivery and reports indicate they are now asking for offers. The Dakotas and much of the Great Plains as well as much of the Midwest got beneficial rains last week. The longer range forecasts from NWS call for warmer and drier than normal conditions for most Soybeans areas of the US. There is still crush demand and a little export demand even though the demand is less now than before. The US does not have a lot of Soybeans in the country anymore as most producers have already sold. Buyers are scrambling for what is left. Brazil is rapidly exporting Soybeans.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 1620, 1685, and 1720 July. Support is at 1538, 1525, and 1480 July, and resistance is at 1578, 1584, and 1615 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 386.00, 378.00, and 372.00 July, and resistance is at 386.00, 404.00, and 407.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 6950 and 7160 July. Support is at 6720, 6620, and 6520 July, with resistance at 7050, 7100, and 7160 July.

DJ Argentina Soybean Harvest in Final Stages Amid Uneven Weather — Market Talk
08:34 ET – Argentina’s soybean farmers are close to finishing their harvesting for the 2020-2021 growing season, with 96.6% of the work on the estimated planted area finished, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says. Productivity is below levels of the past five years in most provinces, and very dry weather in some areas has led to crop losses in some regions, the Exchange says. Other areas are experiencing too much rain, impeding work in the fields and leading to some crop losses as well, according to the Exchange. The USDA has forecast Argentine production of 47,000 metric tons of soybeans for the 2020-2021 season, and the BA Grain Exchange estimated farmers have so far harvested 42,400 tons. (jeffrey.lewis@wsj.com)

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher in sympathy with Soybean Oil. There are fears of global shortages of vegetable oils now. Demand has been less so far this month and the market fears the loss of Indian demand due to the big Coronavirus outbreak in India that could cut demand. However, prices are very high in India and imports are needed. Ideas of tight supplies are still around but supplies are expected to increase in the short term. Canola was lower along with price action in Chicago and on forecasts for wetter weather in growing areas. July was sharply lower on weakening demand ideas. Demand is thought to be OK with crush margins favoring a lot of production of vegetable oils to feed the demand but less exports. The demand for bio fuels is about to increase and is one reason to see much stronger Soybean Oil and Canola prices.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 848.00, 837.00, and 828.00 July, with resistance at 920.00, 962.00, and 966.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 4390 and 5620 July. Support is at 4110, 3970, and 3850 August, with resistance at 4200, 4320, and 4420 August.

Midwest Weather Forecast: mostly dry. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May +97 July +160 May +95 May +74 May
June +88 July +60 July +85 July
July +63 July +65 July +71 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jun 3
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 900.00 -8.20 Jul 2021 up 11.20
Basis: Thunder Bay 833.70 90.00 Nov 2021 dn 6.30
Basis: Vancouver 848.70 105.00 Nov 2021 dn 6.30
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell
204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – June 4
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 1097.50 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1057.50 -30.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 997.50 -25.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 1100.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1060.00 -30.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1000.00 -25.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 1090.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 990.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 4,250.00 -50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 328.00 -06. 00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.126)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jun 04
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 212,410 lots, or 12.44 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-21 5,846 5,866 5,701 5,850 5,848 5,801 -47 331 2,355
Sep-21 5,882 5,913 5,755 5,879 5,890 5,851 -39 186,823 96,342
Nov-21 5,903 5,939 5,790 5,916 5,923 5,873 -50 15,155 24,663
Jan-22 5,918 5,960 5,811 5,930 5,943 5,905 -38 7,709 12,738
Mar-22 5,964 5,985 5,836 5,950 5,973 5,919 -54 2,238 7,852
May-22 6,015 6,015 5,910 5,980 6,015 5,970 -45 154 398
Corn
Turnover: 667,928 lots, or 18.09 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-21 2,775 2,775 2,715 2,737 2,761 2,740 -21 14,859 51,820
Sep-21 2,731 2,734 2,697 2,713 2,728 2,716 -12 503,205 543,467
Nov-21 2,683 2,686 2,654 2,671 2,682 2,671 -11 77,464 214,222
Jan-22 2,696 2,700 2,668 2,685 2,696 2,685 -11 48,902 136,207
Mar-22 2,702 2,706 2,675 2,685 2,702 2,690 -12 21,649 37,598
May-22 2,699 2,700 2,672 2,685 2,695 2,684 -11 1,849 4,939
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,435,415 lots, or 50.90 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-21 3,493 3,498 3,427 3,445 3,467 3,451 -16 28,808 80,821
Aug-21 3,597 3,599 3,518 3,535 3,565 3,550 -15 21,260 16,435
Sep-21 3,589 3,602 3,521 3,535 3,570 3,550 -20 1,093,693 1,275,995
Nov-21 3,599 3,608 3,532 3,548 3,578 3,558 -20 34,414 22,028
Dec-21 3,611 3,615 3,546 3,559 3,582 3,559 -23 3,485 10,090
Jan-22 3,612 3,612 3,533 3,546 3,581 3,560 -21 210,975 393,504
Mar-22 3,467 3,476 3,403 3,415 3,453 3,427 -26 36,323 193,511
May-22 3,406 3,409 3,346 3,358 3,384 3,366 -18 6,457 17,883
Palm Oil
Turnover: 912,384 lots, or 72.79 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jun-21 – – – 9,280 9,280 9,280 0 0 0
Jul-21 8,606 8,670 8,538 8,538 8,722 8,602 -120 22 263
Aug-21 8,180 8,278 8,180 8,278 8,258 8,228 -30 2 108
Sep-21 8,100 8,128 7,920 7,942 8,028 8,006 -22 824,400 392,987
Oct-21 7,968 8,034 7,842 7,874 7,952 7,928 -24 13,927 23,053
Nov-21 7,904 7,968 7,788 7,822 7,894 7,862 -32 3,191 26,369
Dec-21 7,804 7,894 7,712 7,762 7,804 7,780 -24 4,548 35,573
Jan-22 7,740 7,776 7,594 7,658 7,676 7,664 -12 60,824 71,795
Feb-22 7,694 7,694 7,510 7,562 7,634 7,580 -54 3,379 4,409
Mar-22 7,624 7,652 7,462 7,550 7,612 7,550 -62 1,448 1,910
Apr-22 7,594 7,594 7,456 7,532 7,590 7,520 -70 192 1,264
May-22 7,558 7,592 7,432 7,490 7,516 7,496 -20 451 1,023
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 981,054 lots, or 87.91 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-21 9,450 9,534 9,340 9,424 9,450 9,472 22 182 1,037
Aug-21 9,152 9,152 9,004 9,004 9,104 9,094 -10 8 340
Sep-21 9,110 9,122 8,902 8,932 9,024 8,986 -38 885,456 512,291
Nov-21 8,904 8,944 8,744 8,774 8,852 8,810 -42 19,611 36,868
Dec-21 8,834 8,874 8,678 8,716 8,768 8,756 -12 3,891 59,020
Jan-22 8,708 8,808 8,614 8,642 8,696 8,686 -10 70,267 87,353
Mar-22 8,594 8,600 8,434 8,460 8,548 8,478 -70 1,040 7,041
May-22 8,336 8,390 8,230 8,278 8,286 8,288 2 599 1,484
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322