About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT
General Comments: Winter Wheat markets were lower in Chicago, but higher in Minneapolis on forecasts from NWS calling for a warmer and drier than normal Summer growing season. Spring Wheat areas pf the US and Canada should be hot and dry for the next several days. Showers and rains were seen in parts of Western Texas and in Oklahoma. More showers are in the forecast in western Texas. These rains should be very beneficial for planting and initial growth. Demand remains disappointing but the production might not be there for better demand in the coming year. Corn prices are high so demand for feed wheat could increase.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 719 and 759 July. Support is at 680, 667, and 658 July, with resistance at 702, 707, and 718 July. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 670, 711, and 772 July. Support is at 619, 606, and 588 July, with resistance at 653, 675, and 683 July. Trends in Minneapolis are up with no objectives. Support is at 772, 762, and 744 July, and resistance is at 807, 810, and 816 July.

RICE
General Comments: Rice prices were a little higher in slow trading yesterday. Moderate precipitation and warmer temperatures are forecast for US growing areas. Rice areas have generally been wet and northern areas have been cool. Louisiana and parts of Texas are saturated. Warm temperatures are finally spreading north into Arkansas and Missouri and the crop progress is improving. Texas and Louisiana are almost out of Rice, but there is Rice available in the other states, especially Arkansas. Milling interest in Rice is said to be slow.

Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1320, 1311, and 1309 July, with resistance at 1338, 1344, and 1347 July.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed lower in correction trading. July Corn was weakest on ideas that Chinese demand is satisfied for now. Hot and dry weather is forecast for the Great Plains and Midwest this week and hot and dry conditions continue in central and northern Brazil. Longer range forecasts released by NWS call for warmer and drier weather for many important US growing areas this Summer. There are problems with the production potential for the Safrinha crop in Brazil as growing areas have been warm and dry and look to stay that way longer term. Reports indicate that crops are being stressed due to the lack of rain. It is drier in central and parts of northern Brazil, but southern Safrinha areas got some timely and somewhat beneficial precipitation last week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 743 and 813 July. Support is at 658, 637, and 633 July, and resistance is at 697, 703, and 718 July. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 389 and 448 July. Support is at 380, 368, and 364 July, and resistance is at 400, 406, and 423 July.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil were higher, but Soybean Meal was lower. Forecasts for hot and dry weather this week in the Midwest and Great Plains supported the buying. China should start with new US Soybeans purchases soon for Fall delivery. The Dakotas and much of the Great Plains as well as much of the Midwest got beneficial rains last week. The longer range forecasts from NWS call for warmer and drier than normal conditions for most Soybeans areas of the US. There is still crush demand and a little export demand even though the demand is less now than before. The US does not have a lot of Soybeans in the country anymore as most producers have already sold. Buyers are scrambling for what is left. Brazil is rapidly exporting Soybeans.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 1620, 1685, and 1720 July. Support is at 1538, 1525, and 1480 July, and resistance is at 1578, 1615, and 1640 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 390.00, 386.00, and 378.00 July, and resistance is at 404.00, 407.00, and 411.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 6950 and 7160 July. Support is at 6720, 6620, and 6520 July, with resistance at 7050, 7100, and 7160 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher in sympathy with Soybean Oil. There are fears of global shortages of vegetable oils now. Demand has been less so far this month and the market fears the loss of Indian demand due to the big Coronavirus outbreak in India that could cut demand. However, prices are very high in India and imports are needed. Ideas of tight supplies are still around but supplies are expected to increase in the short term. Canola was higher along with price action in Chicago and on forecasts for hot and dry weather in growing areas. July was a little higher. Demand is thought to be OK with crush margins favoring a lot of production of vegetable oils to feed the demand but less exports. The demand for bio fuels is about to increase and is one reason to see much stronger Soybean Oil and Canola prices.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 848.00, 837.00, and 828.00 July, with resistance at 920.00, 962.00, and 966.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 4180, 4390, and 5620 July. Support is at 3970, 3850, and 3780 August, with resistance at 4200, 4320, and 4420 August.

Midwest Weather Forecast: mostly dry. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May +97 July +160 May +95 May +74 May
June +88 July +60 July +85 July
July +63 July +65 July +71 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jun 2
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 888.80 -7.90 Jul 2021 up 13.60
Basis: Thunder Bay 840.00 90.00 Nov 2021 up 11.20
Basis: Vancouver 855.00 105.00 Nov 2021 up 11.20
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell
204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – June 3
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 1117.50 +35.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1087.50 +40.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1022.50 +30.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 1120.00 +35.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1090.00 +40.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1025.00 +30.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 1110.00 +35.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 990.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 4,300.00 +100.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 334.00 +04. 00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.121)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jun 03
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 195,965 lots, or 1.16 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-21 5,840 5,889 5,813 5,847 5,792 5,848 56 262 2,395
Sep-21 5,850 5,940 5,847 5,882 5,839 5,890 51 166,675 101,463
Nov-21 5,905 5,971 5,875 5,903 5,874 5,923 49 16,861 24,496
Jan-22 5,910 5,991 5,902 5,932 5,895 5,943 48 9,868 14,232
Mar-22 5,937 6,013 5,932 5,958 5,896 5,973 77 2,140 7,764
May-22 5,951 6,049 5,951 6,010 5,945 6,015 70 159 389
Corn
Turnover: 563,205 lots, or 15.33 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-21 2,756 2,774 2,743 2,769 2,745 2,761 16 10,301 55,570
Sep-21 2,715 2,740 2,707 2,733 2,707 2,728 21 439,278 547,029
Nov-21 2,670 2,692 2,667 2,686 2,668 2,682 14 60,766 212,959
Jan-22 2,688 2,706 2,681 2,699 2,681 2,696 15 36,304 134,022
Mar-22 2,695 2,711 2,687 2,702 2,686 2,702 16 15,195 36,660
May-22 2,678 2,707 2,678 2,703 2,682 2,695 13 1,361 4,575
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,573,254 lots, or 56.11 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-21 3,446 3,500 3,433 3,495 3,470 3,467 -3 32,270 91,317
Aug-21 3,559 3,603 3,538 3,601 3,582 3,565 -17 30,834 16,281
Sep-21 3,569 3,604 3,539 3,604 3,572 3,570 -2 1,184,488 1,275,413
Nov-21 3,572 3,611 3,548 3,611 3,580 3,578 -2 29,621 21,164
Dec-21 3,588 3,617 3,560 3,617 3,584 3,582 -2 9,837 9,496
Jan-22 3,574 3,609 3,553 3,605 3,574 3,581 7 238,743 389,235
Mar-22 3,438 3,479 3,424 3,475 3,442 3,453 11 41,872 196,097
May-22 3,375 3,410 3,353 3,406 3,371 3,384 13 5,589 17,559
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,031,446 lots, or 82.51 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jun-21 9,280 9,280 9,280 9,280 8,888 9,280 392 86 0
Jul-21 8,650 8,828 8,610 8,820 8,414 8,722 308 13 258
Aug-21 8,070 8,358 8,070 8,340 7,824 8,258 434 5 108
Sep-21 7,860 8,176 7,860 8,134 7,680 8,028 348 924,391 402,721
Oct-21 7,822 8,086 7,776 8,050 7,594 7,952 358 20,363 22,717
Nov-21 7,776 8,030 7,736 7,978 7,550 7,894 344 5,837 26,511
Dec-21 7,716 7,948 7,674 7,912 7,468 7,804 336 5,303 35,741
Jan-22 7,566 7,826 7,542 7,790 7,380 7,676 296 67,232 66,908
Feb-22 7,466 7,742 7,466 7,674 7,324 7,634 310 5,184 4,267
Mar-22 7,510 7,710 7,470 7,662 7,302 7,612 310 1,725 1,896
Apr-22 7,490 7,678 7,448 7,632 7,286 7,590 304 597 1,178
May-22 7,376 7,656 7,376 7,618 7,254 7,516 262 710 893
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,079,093 lots, or 97.10 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-21 9,350 9,562 9,348 9,546 9,188 9,450 262 167 1,093
Aug-21 9,040 9,226 8,992 9,226 8,812 9,104 292 36 347
Sep-21 8,888 9,160 8,864 9,112 8,726 9,024 298 981,868 532,275
Nov-21 8,760 8,966 8,704 8,936 8,560 8,852 292 19,088 35,989
Dec-21 8,688 8,888 8,644 8,864 8,502 8,768 266 5,863 59,157
Jan-22 8,596 8,828 8,558 8,794 8,438 8,696 258 69,800 86,475
Mar-22 8,386 8,620 8,386 8,592 8,280 8,548 268 1,532 6,582
May-22 8,168 8,400 8,168 8,388 8,110 8,286 176 739 1,407
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322