About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Futures were a little higher yesterday on stronger sales in the weekly export sales report. The reports have shown improved sales for the last couple of weeks. Trends are mixed on the daily charts. Cotton growing conditions have improved with rains reported in West Texas and the Delta. The forecasts for the Panhandle region of Texas are improved with rains seen over last week and with more coming. It is drier in the Southeast production areas. The Southeast needs to be watched as conditions there could turn too hot and dry. Delta crop conditions are called good.
Overnight News: The Delta will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. Texas will have isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 78.43 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 146,886 bales, from 146,731 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 8150, 8120, and 8090 July, with resistance of 8430, 8460 and 8610 July.

DJ On-Call Cotton – May 27
As of May 21. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or
purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts
of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.
Source: CFTC
*-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from
last week.
Call Previous Change Call Previous Change
Sales Purchases
May 21 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jul 21 19,504 26,619 -7,115 4,772 5,471 -699
Oct 21 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 21 39,496 35,360 4,136 25,642 24,848 794
Mar 22 15,675 15,143 532 3,620 3,643 -23
May 22 7,275 6,985 290 824 824 0
Jul 22 18,206 16,465 1,741 1,872 1,867 5
Dec 22 7,151 6,383 768 9,418 9,308 110
Mar 23 1,216 1,216 0 176 176 0
May 23 18 18 0 0 0 0
Jul 23 18 18 0 0 0 0
Dec 23 0 0 0 558 558 0
Jul 24 0 0 0 220 220 0
Dec 24 0 0 0 220 220 0
Total 108,559 108,207 352 47,322 47,135 187
Open Open Change
Int Int
May 21 0 0 0
Jul 21 79,484 92,229 -12,745
Oct 21 89 89 0
Dec 21 105,373 95,297 10,076
Mar 22 17,558 17,411 147
May 22 2,806 2,896 -90
Jul 22 6,565 6,368 197
Dec 22 9,690 8,713 977
Mar 23 120 50 70
May 23 2 2 0
Jul 23 3 3 0
Dec 23 3 3 0
Jul 24 0 0 0
Dec 24 0 0 0
Total 221,693 223,061 -1,368

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed a little higher and trends started to turn up as the US harvest is about over. The weather in Florida is good with mostly dry weather. The hurricane season is coming and a big storm could threaten trees and fruit. An active season is anticipated. It is dry in Brazil and crop conditions are called good even with drier than normal soils. Stress to trees could return if the dry weather continues as is in the forecast. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production. It is dry in northern and western Mexican growing areas.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 121.00, 126.00, and 140.00 July. Support is at 117.00, 115.00, and 113.00 July, with resistance at 120.00, 122.00, and 126.00 July.

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement and Pack – May 28
Florida FCOJ Movement And Pack
In mm ps, (million pounds solid). Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)
WEEK ENDING:
5/22/2021 Corresponding
Current Week Last
Week Season
5/22/2021 5/16/2020 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 282.31 324.64 -13.0%
Retail/Institutional 4.99 6.04 -17.3%
Total 287.30 330.68 -13.1%
Pack
Bulk 0.63 4.98 -87.4%
Retail/Institutional 0.95 0.86 10.0%
Total Pack 1.58 5.85 -73.1%
Reprocessed -1.23 -3.21 -61.5%
Pack from Fruit 0.34 2.64 -87.0%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -0.01 0.05 -86.9%
Imports – Foreign 1.99 3.98 -49.9%
Domestic Receipts 0.37 0.48 -22.8%
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 0.00 0.00 NC
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 0.00 0.46 -100.0%
Reprocessed FCTJ 0.01 0.16 -91.7%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 284.07 331.55 -14.3%
Retail/Institutional 5.94 6.90 -13.9%
Total 290.01 338.45 -14.3%
MOVEMENT
Bulk
Domestic 2.95 4.44 -33.6%
Exports 0.32 0.16 109.2%
Total (Bulk) 3.27 4.60 -28.8%
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 0.90 0.77 17.5%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 0.90 0.77 17.5%
Total Movement 4.18 5.37 -22.2%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 280.80 326.95 -14.1%
Retail/Institutional 5.04 6.13 -17.8%
Ending Inventory 285.84 333.08 -14.2%
Total Same
Total Season Period Last
To Date Season
22-May-21 16-May-20 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 254.09 311.95 -18.5%
Retail/Institutional 5.56 5.82 -4.5%
Total 259.65 317.77 -18.3%
Pack
Bulk 69.24 131.96 -47.5%
Retail/Institutional 33.86 36.17 -6.4%
Total Pack 103.10 168.13 -38.7%
Reprocessed -72.87 -86.68 -15.9%
Pack from Fruit 30.23 81.45 -62.9%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -0.79 -2.08 -62.3%
Imports – Foreign 157.13 104.75 50.0%
Domestic Receipts 8.86 10.97 -19.3%
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 1.18 0.26 357.5%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 6.58 16.43 -59.9%
Reprocessed FCTJ 1.35 1.31 2.9%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 424.77 488.86 -13.1%
Retail/Institutional 39.42 42.00 -6.1%
Total 464.19 530.86 -12.6%
MOVEMENT
Bulk 130.79 158.09 -17.3%
Domestic 13.19 9.79 34.7%
Exports 143.97 167.88 -14.2%
Total (Bulk)
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 34.38 35.86 -4.1%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 34.38 35.86 -4.1%
Total Movement 178.35 203.74 -12.5%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 280.80 326.95 -14.1%
Retail/Institutional 5.04 6.13 -17.8%
Ending Inventory 285.84 333.08 -14.2%

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London both closed higher on the return of dry and hot weather to some of the Brazil growing area. London was higher as Vietnam stayed dry. The daily charts show mixed trends in London and up trends now in New York. Most Brazil Coffee areas should stay dry for at least the next week although a few showers are possible in southern Minas Gerais again. Fears of dry weather impacting the Brazil production continued to support prices overall. It will be cool, but not cold. It is also the second year of the production cycle so production will be less, anyway. Production conditions elsewhere in Latin America are mixed with good conditions reported in northern South America and improved conditions reported in Central America. Conditions are reported to be generally good in Asia and Africa. Its turning a little dry in Southeast Asia including Vietnam, but a storm brought some beneficial precipitation in recent days.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are slightly lower today at 2.066 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 138.97 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers with above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 158.00, 159.00, and 159.00 July. Support is at 153.00, 150.00, and 146.00 July, and resistance is at 157.00, 159.00 and 163.00 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1490, 1470, and 1450 July, and resistance is at 1520, 1540, and 1560 July.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London were both higher in range trading. Demand ideas for Cane are starting to improve. Demand for ethanol should be increasing and could divert the cane processing to production of the ethanol and away from Sugar. There is plenty of White Sugar available in India for the market. Fears of dry Brazilian weather continued, but southern growing areas are getting some beneficial rains, with Parana and parts of Sao Paulo getting the best rains. Production has been hurt due to dry weather earlier in the year. The seasonal crush is off to a slow start and Sugar content of the cane is reduced in initial industry reports from the center-south of Brazil. India is exporting Sugar and is reported to have a big cane crop this year. Thailand is expecting improved production after drought induced yield losses last year. Ethanol demand is returning to the market as more world economies open up after the pandemic.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1650, 1610, and 1580 July, and resistance is at 1730, 1740, and 1780 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 450.00, 447.00, and 444.00 August, and resistance is at 461.00, 466.00, and 470.00 August.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed lower and London made new lows for the move. The daily charts show sideways or down trends in both markets. The harvests are over in West Africa and ports there have been filled with Cocoa. The weather has been a little too dry for best production prospects for the next crop. European demand has been slow as the quarterly grind data showed a 3% decrease from a year ago in grindings. This has been caused by less demand created by the pandemic. Asian demand improved. North American data showed improved demand. But, the supplies are there for any increased demand.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.535 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2270 and 2210 July. Support is at 2390, 2360, and 2280 July, with resistance at 2470, 2490, and 2500 July. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1600 and 1580 July. Support is at 1580, 1560, and 1540 July, with resistance at 1640, 1670, and 1690 July.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322