About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher on talk that China bought 1.0 million tons of US Corn and on forecasts from NWS calling for a warmer and drier than normal Summer growing season. Showers and rains were seen in parts of Western Texas and in Oklahoma and also in the northern Great Plains. Kansas and the Canadian Prairies got some beneficial rain. Scattered showers are in the forecast in western Texas and rains are possible into Kansas. These rains should be very beneficial for planting and initial growth, and more is in the forecast. Wheat remains a weather market, but the demand side has been weak. Demand remains disappointing but the production might not be there for better demand in the coming year. Corn prices are high so demand for feed wheat could increase.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will be near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 667, 658, and 639 July, with resistance at 693, 707, and 718 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 616, 606, and 588 July, with resistance at 643, 650, and 675 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 726 and 765 July. Support is at 695, 687, and 669 July, and resistance is at 736, 748, and 758 July.

RICE
General Comments: Rice prices were little changed in slow trading, but old crop to new crop spreads were firm. Increased precipitation and warmer temperatures for US growing areas have kept the market under pressure in recent days. Rice areas have generally been wet. Louisiana and parts of Texas are saturated. Warm temperatures are finally spreading north into Arkansas and Missouri and the crop progress is improving. Texas and Louisiana are almost out of Rice, but there is Rice available in the other states, especially Arkansas. Milling interest in Rice is said to be slow.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1311, 1309, and 1307 July, with resistance at 1333, 1338, and 1347 July.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed sharply higher to limit up as talk persisted that China would take the vast majority of its Corn purchases for the old crop year. There was talk that Chinese state companies had purchased another 1.0 million tons of US old Crop Corn and that the companies remained active in buying new crop Corn as well. No additional business was confirmed by USDA yesterday. There had been rumors that China was going to cancel a large chunk of the old crop purchases, but Bloomberg said that the amount in question was less than 1.0 million tons and had been bought by the private industry for delivery to free trade ports. Improved weather forecasts and reports and higher acreage estimates have been the bearish factors in the market. Planting and emergence has been above average in all areas. Temperatures are expected to stay generally warm this week. There will be precipitation that will benefit crops. Overall planting and initial growth conditions should be fairly good over the next week. Longer range forecasts released by NWS call for warmer and drier weather for many important US growing areas this Summer. There are problems with the production potential for the Safrinha crop in Brazil as growing areas have been warm and dry and look to stay that way longer term. Reports indicate that crops are being stressed due to the lack of rain. It is drier in central and parts of northern Brazil, but southern Safrinha areas got some timely and somewhat beneficial precipitation over the weekend.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 657, 637, and 633 July, and resistance is at 671, 674, and 684 July. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 372, 389, and 448 July. Support is at 364, 358, and 354 July, and resistance is at 380, 383, and 400 July.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher in sympathy with Corn and the Corn demand ideas. There was more talk that China had bought 1.0 million tons of US old crop Corn this week on the move lower. China should start with new US Soybeans purchases soon for Fall delivery. Some of the selling was in response to the improved Midwest and Great Plains weather that showed precipitation in many areas with more coming. The Dakotas and much of the Great Plains as well as much of the Midwest got beneficial rains. The longer range forecasts from NWS call for warmer and drier than normal conditions for most Soybeans areas of the US. There is still crush demand and a little export demand even though the demand is less now than before. The US does not have a lot of Soybeans in the country anymore as most producers have already sold. Buyers are scrambling for what is left. Brazil is rapidly exporting Soybeans.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1489, 1470, and 1440 July, and resistance is at 1538, 1557, and 1563 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 368.00 and 356.00 July. Support is at 378.00, 372.00, and 369.00 July, and resistance is at 396.00, 400.00, and 408.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 6420, 6300, and 5970 July, with resistance at 6740, 6790, and 7050 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher along with the price action in competing vegetable oils. There is new talk of supply disruptions due to the Coronavirus outbreak. The private sources showed that export demand is mixed from last month, but the market fears the loss of Indian demand due to the big Coronavirus outbreak in India that could cut demand. However, prices are very high in India and imports are needed. Ideas of tight supplies are still around but supplies are expected to increase in the short term. Canola was higher along with price action in Chicago and despite improved growing and planting conditions. Some showers were seen in all areas late last week and there is the potential for more rains this week. Demand is thought to be OK with crush margins favoring a lot of production of vegetable oils to feed the demand but less exports. The demand for bio fuels is about to increase and is one reason to see much stronger Soybean Oil and Canola prices.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 857.00, 837.00, and 828.00 July, with resistance at 907.00, 914.00, and 920.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3700 and 3300 August. Support is at 3870, 3780, and 3700 August, with resistance at 4010, 4080, and 4200 August.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Scattered showers in almost all areas. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May +97 July +160 May +95 May +74 May
June +88 July +60 July +85 July
July +63 July +65 July +71 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – May 27
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures for May 27, 2021.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 878.10 15.80 Jul 21 dn 15.70
Basis: Thunder Bay 806.60 90.00 Nov 21 up 25.30
Basis: Vancouver 821.60 105.00 Nov 21 up 25.30
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – May 28
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 1122.50 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1027.50 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 947.50 +25.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 1125.00 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1030.00 +25.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 950.00 +25.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 1080.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 975.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 4,360.00 +60.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 334.00 +02. 00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.131)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – May 28
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 187,031 lots, or 10.72 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-21 5,648 5,760 5,639 5,676 5,675 5,703 28 16,522 4,019
Sep-21 5,673 5,795 5,660 5,701 5,707 5,730 23 157,775 120,546
Nov-21 5,743 5,823 5,699 5,730 5,743 5,765 22 3,618 22,588
Jan-22 5,756 5,850 5,721 5,758 5,762 5,780 18 7,907 17,276
Mar-22 5,776 5,884 5,751 5,792 5,794 5,816 22 1,063 6,385
May-22 5,803 5,933 5,801 5,850 5,817 5,871 54 146 259
Corn
Turnover: 773,705 lots, or 20.75 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-21 2,741 2,780 2,722 2,733 2,734 2,742 8 32,055 68,575
Sep-21 2,669 2,722 2,662 2,682 2,671 2,686 15 581,869 589,064
Nov-21 2,644 2,680 2,628 2,644 2,644 2,647 3 73,046 198,161
Jan-22 2,659 2,689 2,640 2,654 2,654 2,660 6 61,372 132,532
Mar-22 2,652 2,717 2,642 2,664 2,656 2,665 9 24,567 32,977
May-22 2,652 2,686 2,643 2,664 2,656 2,665 9 796 2,633
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,292,821 lots, or 4.55 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-21 3,407 3,493 3,407 3,453 3,403 3,444 41 62,293 101,164
Aug-21 3,505 3,596 3,504 3,546 3,495 3,540 45 8,992 6,317
Sep-21 3,482 3,576 3,482 3,532 3,484 3,527 43 1,002,544 1,272,668
Nov-21 3,490 3,592 3,474 3,535 3,488 3,525 37 13,160 12,605
Dec-21 3,515 3,565 3,515 3,541 3,484 3,544 60 7 264
Jan-22 3,478 3,556 3,473 3,520 3,471 3,513 42 164,930 366,834
Mar-22 3,329 3,408 3,329 3,380 3,330 3,366 36 33,990 205,050
May-22 3,271 3,333 3,270 3,307 3,269 3,306 37 6,905 16,340
Palm Oil
Turnover: 927,604 lots, or 70.51 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jun-21 8,888 8,888 8,888 8,888 8,748 8,888 140 1 181
Jul-21 – – – 8,538 8,538 8,538 0 0 255
Aug-21 – – – 7,922 7,922 7,922 0 0 108
Sep-21 7,500 7,748 7,490 7,634 7,572 7,638 66 836,979 353,271
Oct-21 7,320 7,576 7,320 7,488 7,406 7,482 76 21,398 20,719
Nov-21 7,202 7,476 7,202 7,420 7,300 7,374 74 4,731 26,054
Dec-21 7,138 7,362 7,126 7,314 7,194 7,234 40 5,438 34,995
Jan-22 6,984 7,270 6,984 7,230 7,086 7,186 100 46,854 55,494
Feb-22 6,988 7,210 6,956 7,176 7,024 7,112 88 11,012 3,747
Mar-22 6,968 7,168 6,968 7,144 7,010 7,082 72 490 1,501
Apr-22 7,154 7,154 7,154 7,154 6,988 7,154 166 2 246
May-22 6,952 7,148 6,952 7,092 6,982 7,082 100 699 708
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,063,228 lots, or 91.02 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-21 8,898 9,122 8,858 9,074 8,934 8,956 22 1,428 1,957
Aug-21 8,598 8,776 8,598 8,670 8,584 8,690 106 27 392
Sep-21 8,450 8,696 8,450 8,606 8,518 8,594 76 946,734 483,874
Nov-21 8,266 8,486 8,260 8,436 8,318 8,400 82 20,674 36,556
Dec-21 8,182 8,398 8,182 8,350 8,246 8,270 24 6,998 58,189
Jan-22 8,100 8,324 8,098 8,292 8,150 8,242 92 85,719 78,455
Mar-22 7,978 8,156 7,966 8,144 8,006 8,102 96 1,130 2,770
May-22 7,888 8,030 7,848 7,972 7,900 7,968 68 518 1,308
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322