Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We start off the day with Durable Goods Orders MoM (APR), Export Sales, Corporate Profits QoQ Prel Q1, Durable Goods Ex Transportation MoM (APR), GDP Price Index QoQ 2nd Est Q1, GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est. Q1, Jobless Claims (22/MAY), Jobless Claims 4-Week Average (22/MAY), Durable Goods Orders ex Defense MoM (APR), Core PCE Prices QoQ 2nd Est Q1, PCE Prices QoQ 2nd Est Q1, and Continuing Jobless Claims (15/May) at 7:30 A.M., Pending Home Sales MoM & YoY at 9:00 A.M., EIA Natural Gas Stocks at 9:30 A.M., Kansas city Fed Manufacturing Index May at 10:00 A.M., 4-Week and 8-Week Bill Auction at 10;30 A.M., and 7-Year Note auction at 12:00 P.M.
On the Corn Front part of the Corn Belt has had a reprieve on lack of rain in the South and Midwest. There is still a lot of dryness in the soil in the Corn Belt that is thirsting for rain that did appear. The recent huge selloff has been due to predictions of acreage planted and China buying has slowed and those believe the top of the market is in. No yields to my knowledge have ever been accurately predicted before Memorial Day or even the 4th of July, we are still at the infancy of the growing year and a lot can and most likely will happen whether it is good or bad for the crop. In the big selloff the funds were huge sellers which had a piling on effect. In yesterday’s action the July corn settled 4 ¼ cents higher, the September 6 cents higher and the December 5 cents higher. I hope and think reality has set in this market that is way oversold. In the overnight electronic session, the July corn is currently trading at 625 ½ which is 1 cent higher. The trading range has been 627 ¾ to 621 ¼.
On the Ethanol Front ethanol production and stocks recede. The EIA reported that production averaged 1.011 million barrels per day, down 21,000 on the week, but up 287,000 on the year. There are still concerns about reduced travel, so facilities limited production or closed. Stocks of 18.98 million barrels were 453,000 barrels lower than the previous week and 4.196 million less than last year, for the tightest domestic supply since late 2016. There were no trades posted in the overnight electronic session. The June contract settled at 2.350 and is currently showing no market with Open interest at 21 contracts.
On the Crude oil Front the market has been struggling to surge through $66 a barrel. It just seems it cannot get to $67 a barrel. Even with bullish inventories and rising threats rolling across the Middle East that were non-existent five months ago. If we can get a close above $67 a barrel with the long weekend, we still could test $70 a barrel by tomorrows close. In the overnight electronic session, the July crude oil is currently trading at 6567 which is 54 points lower. The trading range has been 6618 to 6551.
On the natural Gas Front, the market is coming in a little easier with temperatures expected to drop to the 50’s and 60’s over the weekend The July natural gas is currently trading at 3.015 which is .012 lower. The trading range has been 3.024 to 3.006. We also have the weekly EIA Gas storage number and the Thomson Reuters poll with 17 analysts polled estimate injections ranging from 96bcf to 110bcf with the median build of 106 bcf. This compares to the one-year injection of 103bcf and the five-year average of 92ncf.
Tune in at 7:30 A.M. to Rural Radio as I discuss Export Sales and Energy Prices on Channel 147 Sirius XM.
Have A Great Trading Day!
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Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374