Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
DJ USDA Cold Storage: Totals-May 24
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)==U.S. stocks of pork bellies in freezers
totaled 34.202 million pounds, in April, 3.4% below the previous
month, and 57.6% below April 2020, the U.S. Department Agriculture
In thousand pounds.
Apr 30 Mar 31 Apr 30 Mar 31 warehouse
2021 2021 2020 2020 stocks/Apr
pork bellies 34,202 35,398 80,728 78,157
orange juice 754,911 664,503 838,528 802,443
french fries 920,055 950,494 975,074 1,077,825
other potatoes 196,067 196,085 217,686 231,638
chicken rstr (whole) 14,973 13,103 22,545 20,186
ham 81,301 60,776 113,328 88,308
total pork 455,252 451,020 611,222 616,946 406,064
total beef 453,616 483,004 479,456 502,336 443,694
total red meat 940,631 967,924 1,136,888 1,161,976 880,337
total chicken 723,834 739,863 933,498 920,200
total turkey 362,587 350,588 417,981 387,503
total poultry 1,089,293 1,093,234 1,357,337 1,311,115 1,021,433
General Comments: Futures were a little lower yesterday after trading both sides of unchanged. Trends are mixed on the daily charts. Cotton growing conditions have improved with rains reported in West Texas and the Delta. The export sales reports in the last several weeks have been less than hoped for but were improved last week. The forecasts for the Panhandle region of Texas are improved with rains seen over last week and with more coming. It is drier in the Southeast production areas and this is beneficial for now. The Southeast needs to be watched as conditions there could turn too hot and dry. The demand for US Cotton in the export market was improved last week and has been strong even with the Coronavirus causing disruptions at the retail level around the world. The US economy is better and is starting to reopen.
Overnight News: The Delta will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. Texas will have isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 78.53 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 143,251 bales, from 136,192 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 8150, 8120, and 8090 July, with resistance of 8430, 8460 and 8610 July.
General Comments: FCOJ closed a little lower in range trading. Trends are still trying to turn up in this market. The weather in Florida is good with mostly dry weather. The hurricane season is coming and a big storm could threaten trees and fruit. That is still a month away. It is dry in Brazil and crop conditions are called good even with drier than normal soils. Stress to trees could return if the dry weather continues as is in the forecast. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production. It is dry in northern and western Mexican growing areas.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 contracts were posted for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 118 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 113.00, 112.00, and 110.00 July, with resistance at 118.00, 120.00, and 122.00 July.
General Comments: New York closed higher on less than expected production estimates for Brazil from CONAB. London was higher as Vietnam stayed dry. The daily charts show mixed trends. Some precipitation was reported in Minas Gerais over the weekend. Most Brazil Coffee areas should stay dry for at least the next week although a few showers are possible in southern Minas Gerais again. Fears of dry weather impacting the Brazil production continued to support prices overall. It is also the second year of the production cycle so production will be less, anyway. Production conditions elsewhere in Latin America are mixed with good conditions reported in northern South America and improved conditions reported in Central America. Conditions are reported to be generally good in Asia and Africa. Its turning a little dry in Southeast Asia including Vietnam, but a major storm is expected to bring generous rains to the country later this week.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 2.065 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 135.52 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 146.00, 144.00, and 142.00 July, and resistance is at 151.00, 155.00 and 157.00 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1450, 1440, and 1410 July, and resistance is at 1520, 1540, and 1560 July.
General Comments: New York and London were both higher on demand ideas. Demand for ethanol should be increasing and could divert the cane processing to production of the ethanol and away from Sugar. There is plenty of White Sugar available in India for the market and London has been the weaker market to date. Fears of dry Brazilian weather continued, but southern growing areas are getting some beneficial rains, with Parana and Sao Paulo getting the best rains. Production has been hurt due to dry weather earlier in the year. The seasonal crush is off to a slow start and Sugar content of the cane is reduced in initial industry reports from the center-south of Brazil. India is exporting Sugar and is reported to have a big cane crop this year. Thailand is expecting improved production after drought induced yield losses last year. Ethanol demand is returning to the market as more world economies open up after the pandemic.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions or isolated showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1690, 1650, and 1610 July, and resistance is at 1740, 1780, and 1820 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 452.00, 444.00, and 439.00 August, and resistance is at 461.00, 466.00, and 470.00 August.
DJ Brazil Center-South Sugar Crush Down 3% at 41.1M Tons in 1H May, Unica Says
By Jeffrey T. Lewis
SAO PAULO–Brazilian sugar mills in the country’s center-south region crushed less cane in the first half of May compared with a year earlier, as delays to harvesting in some areas limited the amount of raw material available, according to industry group Unica.
Center-south mills crushed 41.1 million metric tons of cane in the period, a decrease of 3% from the same period a year earlier. They produced 2.4 million tons of sugar, down 4.4%, and made 1.8 billion liters of ethanol, a decline of 0.6%.
The production mix for the first half of May was 46.15% sugar to 53.85% ethanol, compared with 47% sugar and 53% ethanol in the same period a year ago.
Unusually dry weather in cane-growing parts of Brazil has had a negative impact on the development of the plants and will result in a smaller harvest, and a smaller cane crush, this year, crop agency Conab said last week.
In the season from April 1 through May 15, mills in the region crushed 86.3 million tons of cane, down 16.2% from the same period a year earlier. Sugar production fell 17.5% to 4.5 million tons, and ethanol output fell 13.2% to 3.8 billion liters.
The production mix for the season through May 15 was 44.5% sugar to 55.5% ethanol, compared with 45.2% sugar and 54.8% ethanol in the same period a year ago.
General Comments: New York and London closed lower with most of the weakness in New York. The daily charts show sideways or down trends in both markets. The harvests are over in West Africa and ports there have been filled with Cocoa. European demand has been slow as the quarterly grind data showed a 3% decrease from a year ago in grindings. This has been caused by less demand created by the pandemic. Asian demand improved. North American data showed improved demand. But, the supplies are there for any increased demand.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.443 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2270 and 2210 July. Support is at 2360, 2280, and 2170 July, with resistance at 2430, 2470, and 2490 July. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1610 July. Support is at 1620, 1580, and 1540 July, with resistance at 1670, 1690, and 1720 July.