About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower on reports of better weather for growing areas and on fund selling tied to weaker chart patterns. Showers and rains were seen in parts of Western Texas and in Oklahoma and also in the northern Great Plains. Kansas and the Canadian Prairies got some beneficial rain. Scattered showers are in the forecast for this week in western Texas and rains are possible into Kansas. These rains should be very beneficial for planting and initial growth, and more is in the forecast. Wheat remains a weather market, but the demand side has been weak. Demand remains disappointing but the production might not be there for better demand in the coming year. Corn prices are high so demand for feed wheat could increase.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will be near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 646 July. Support is at 646, 640, and 626 July, with resistance at 657, 672, and 693 July. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 578 and 576 July. Support is at 597, 595, and 584 July, with resistance at 620, 622, and 643 July. Trends in Minneapolis are down with no objectives. Support is at 675, 664, and 658 July, and resistance is at 690, 696, and 710 July.

RICE
General Comments: Rice prices were a little higher in recovery trading and slow trading. Increased precipitation and warmer temperatures for US growing areas have kept the market under pressure in recent days. Rice areas have generally been wet. Louisiana and parts of Texas are saturated. Warm temperatures are finally spreading north into Arkansas and Missouri and the crop progress is improving. Texas and Louisiana are almost out of Rice, but there is Rice available in the other states, especially Arkansas.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1296, 1272, and 1264 July. Support is at 1311, 1309, and 1307 July, with resistance at 1328, 1338, and 1347 July.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – May 26
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 17.59 11.25 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 17.22 11.50 0.00
Brokens 11.16 —- —-

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed sharply lower on improved Midwest weather and big fund selling. The funds started to sell as the chart trends changed to down. Improved weather forecasts and reports and higher acreage estimates have been the bearish factors in the market. Western sections of the Midwest got crops planted with speed, but eastern areas are slower. Emergence has been above average in all areas. Emergence has been slow due to cold temperatures but the Midwest has warmed up in the last week and is expected to stay generally warm this week. There will be precipitation that will benefit crops. Overall planting and initial growth conditions should be fairly good over the next week. There are problems with the production potential for the Safrinha crop in Brazil as growing areas have been warm and dry and look to stay that way longer term. Reports indicate that crops are being stressed due to the lack of rain. It is drier in central and parts of northern Brazil, but southern Safrinha areas got some timely and somewhat beneficial precipitation over the weekend.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 607 and 590 July. Support is at 598, 582, and 572 July, and resistance is at 633, 637, and 657 July. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 354, 351, and 348 July, and resistance is at 366, 375, and 380 July.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were mixed, with Soybeans and Soybean Meal lower and Soybean Oil higher. Funds were the best sellers but even the funds were more interested in selling Corn. Some of the selling was in response to the improved Midwest and Great Plains weather that showed precipitation in many areas with more coming. The Dakotas and much of the Great Plains as well as much of the Midwest got beneficial rains. There is still crush demand and a little export demand even though the demand is less now than before. The US does not have a lot of Soybeans in the country anymore as most producers have already sold. Buyers are scrambling for what is left. Brazil is rapidly exporting Soybeans.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 1481 and 1387 July. Support is at 1491, 1470, and 1440 July, and resistance is at 1538, 1557, and 1563 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 368.00 and 356.00 July. Support is at 372.00, 369.00, and 365.00 July, and resistance is at 383.00, 392.00, and 393.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 6420, 6300, and 5970 July, with resistance at 6740, 6790, and 7050 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was closed for a holiday. The private sources showed that export demand is mixed from last month, but the market fears the loss of Indian demand due to the big Coronavirus outbreak in India that could cut demand. However, prices are very high in India and imports are needed. Ideas of tight supplies are still around but supplies are expected to increase in the short term. Canola was lower along with price action in Chicago. Demand is feared to be less because of a strong Canadian Dollar and on improved growing and planting conditions. Worries about South American production are supporting both markets as is dry weather in the Prairies. Some showers were seen in all areas late last week and there is the potential for more this week. Demand is thought to be OK with crush margins favoring a lot of production of vegetable oils to feed the demand but less exports. The demand for bio fuels is about to increase and is one reason to see much stronger Soybean Oil and Canola prices.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 862.00, 857.00, and 837.00 July, with resistance at 903.00, 920.00, and 962.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3700 and 3300 August. Support is at 3870, 3780, and 3700 August, with resistance at 4080, 4200, and 4320 August.

DJ Canadian Oilseed Processors Association Monthly Crush – May 25
WINNIPEG–Crushing statistics of major oilseeds in Canada
for the month of April 2021, reported by Statistics Canada are
as follows:
Figures are in metric tons.
Year Ago 2020/21 2019/20
Canola Apr 2021 Apr 2020 To Date To Date
Seed crushed 901,911 845,459 7,942,543 7,602,541
Oil produced 391,000 370,176 3,446,254 3,320,771
Meal produced 516,474 469,844 4,521,593 4,238,087
Soybeans
Seed crushed 138,624 162,400 1,282,315 1,353,799
Oil produced 26,386 28,729 237,797 247,001
Meal produced 108,148 128,232 998,159 1,055,644
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)

Midwest Weather Forecast: Scattered showers in almost all areas. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May +97 July +160 May +95 May +74 May
June +88 July +60 July +85 July
July +63 July +65 July +71 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – May 25
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures for May 25, 2021.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 899.00 15.80 Jul 21 dn 20.00
Basis: Thunder Bay 787.30 90.00 Nov 21 dn 9.50
Basis: Vancouver 802.30 105.00 Nov 21 dn 9.50
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (Phil Franz-Warkentin,
news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-9084)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – May 26
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 217,673 lots, or 12.59 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-21 5,789 5,803 5,681 5,681 5,863 5,743 -120 13,363 6,561
Sep-21 5,831 5,848 5,707 5,715 5,903 5,784 -119 188,232 118,445
Nov-21 5,861 5,875 5,750 5,750 5,936 5,820 -116 4,487 21,910
Jan-22 5,907 5,907 5,772 5,777 5,946 5,836 -110 9,913 17,010
Mar-22 5,963 5,963 5,810 5,810 5,983 5,864 -119 1,511 6,069
May-22 5,926 5,965 5,823 5,823 5,979 5,910 -69 167 220
Corn
Turnover: 970,014 lots, or 26.12 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-21 2,772 2,772 2,727 2,731 2,772 2,742 -30 48,446 72,368
Sep-21 2,733 2,740 2,668 2,670 2,740 2,695 -45 747,357 596,053
Nov-21 2,690 2,693 2,640 2,640 2,692 2,659 -33 77,061 194,738
Jan-22 2,692 2,700 2,651 2,652 2,701 2,667 -34 71,165 128,313
Mar-22 2,695 2,695 2,653 2,658 2,700 2,670 -30 23,948 29,463
May-22 2,685 2,685 2,645 2,656 2,691 2,665 -26 2,037 2,470
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,194,049 lots, or 41.81 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-21 3,439 3,460 3,408 3,425 3,463 3,436 -27 59,006 105,503
Aug-21 3,542 3,552 3,503 3,517 3,553 3,531 -22 5,509 4,491
Sep-21 3,522 3,538 3,486 3,508 3,536 3,513 -23 906,626 1,333,543
Nov-21 3,531 3,543 3,493 3,519 3,540 3,520 -20 25,237 11,181
Dec-21 3,532 3,538 3,468 3,515 3,540 3,511 -29 20 275
Jan-22 3,506 3,515 3,466 3,491 3,511 3,492 -19 157,683 353,855
Mar-22 3,364 3,375 3,328 3,352 3,373 3,355 -18 33,024 188,039
May-22 3,306 3,312 3,279 3,297 3,314 3,297 -17 6,944 16,421
Palm Oil
Turnover: 959,937 lots, or 73.04 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jun-21 8,764 9,008 8,704 8,784 8,764 8,772 8 30 182
Jul-21 8,558 8,708 8,536 8,544 8,558 8,558 0 254 256
Aug-21 7,948 8,070 7,838 8,004 7,948 7,948 0 70 110
Sep-21 7,626 7,756 7,484 7,710 7,622 7,648 26 867,575 345,612
Oct-21 7,466 7,572 7,326 7,530 7,460 7,472 12 17,082 20,957
Nov-21 7,350 7,470 7,232 7,422 7,346 7,380 34 7,041 26,334
Dec-21 7,236 7,354 7,130 7,312 7,236 7,264 28 4,403 34,090
Jan-22 7,150 7,246 7,016 7,206 7,142 7,152 10 46,731 52,552
Feb-22 7,080 7,182 6,962 7,126 7,080 7,094 14 15,289 4,078
Mar-22 7,054 7,144 6,970 7,100 7,074 7,074 0 740 1,361
Apr-22 7,074 7,120 7,020 7,120 7,080 7,052 -28 5 245
May-22 7,052 7,116 6,934 7,078 7,064 7,064 0 717 710
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,104,843 lots, or 94.55 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-21 8,968 9,014 8,870 8,992 8,936 8,964 28 791 3,242
Aug-21 8,618 8,686 8,608 8,686 8,584 8,660 76 8 404
Sep-21 8,602 8,664 8,452 8,640 8,544 8,590 46 989,496 489,389
Nov-21 8,392 8,454 8,282 8,436 8,402 8,398 -4 15,401 35,338
Dec-21 8,322 8,368 8,212 8,354 8,328 8,328 0 5,186 53,581
Jan-22 8,250 8,300 8,140 8,268 8,274 8,250 -24 92,095 77,225
Mar-22 8,118 8,174 8,040 8,136 8,178 8,132 -46 1,305 2,543
May-22 8,038 8,060 7,922 8,034 8,076 8,012 -64 561 999
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322