Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Futures were lower for the week on some speculative selling before the WASDE reports due on Wednesday morning. Support is still coming from dry weather in Texas although the forecasts for the region are improved and resistance from weaker demand as seen in the weekly export sales report. The demand for US Cotton in the export market was weaker last week, but has been strong even with the Coronavirus causing disruptions at the retail level around the world. The US stock market has been generally firm to help support ideas of a better economy here and potentially increased demand for Cotton products. It is dry in western and southern Texas. Some showers are reported in western areas to help there, but it is still dry overall.
Overnight News: The Delta will get scattered showers today and tomorrow, then mostly dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures and Southeast will get scattered showers and near to below normal temperatures. Texas will have scattered showers today and tomorrow, then mostly dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 84.29 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 95,536 bales, from 95,536 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 70 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 8650, 8400, and 8220 July, with resistance of 9000, 9100 and 9160 July.
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher again. Trends are trying to turn up on the daily charts. The price action suggests that prices might have gotten too cheap. The weather in Florida is good with a few showers or dry weather to promote good tree health and fruit formation. The hurricane season is coming and a big storm could threaten trees and fruit. That is still a couple of months away. It is dry in Brazil and crop conditions are called good even with drier than normal soils. Stress to trees could return if the dry weather continues as is in the forecast. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production. It is dry in northern and western Mexican growing areas. \
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 contracts were posted for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 118 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 114.00, 112.00, and 110.00 July, with resistance at 117.00, 120.00, and 122.00 July.
General Comments: New York and London were lower with the current and future Brazil weather in focus. Some rains fell close to Coffee areas over the weekend and some forecasts are now looking for a few showers this week in some dry regions of the Coffee belt. Fears of dry weather impacting the Brazil production continued to support prices overall. It remains generally dry there and there are still no forecasts for any significant rains in Coffee areas. It was dry at flowering time as well. It is also the off year in the two year production cycle. Production conditions elsewhere in Latin America are mixed with good conditions reported in northern South America and improved conditions reported in Central America. Conditions are reported to be generally good in Asia and Africa.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 1.999 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 133.15 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions except for scattered showers today and tomorrow with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers or dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE said that 0 contracts were tendered for delivery against NY May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 992 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 159.00 July. Support is at 147.00, 144.00, and 142.00 July, and resistance is at 155.00, 157.00 and 159.00 July. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1560 July. Support is at 1500, 1480, and 1440 July, and resistance is at 1570, 1600, and 1630 July.
General Comments: New York was lower on speculative selling despite drought conditions continuing in Brazil. London closed a little lower. Fears of dry Brazilian weather continued. The primary growing region has been dry in Brazil with little or no rain in the forecast. A few showers were reported in Parana over the weekend. Production has been hurt due to dry weather earlier in the year. The seasonal crush is off to a slow start and Sugar content of the cane is reduced in initial industry reports from the center-south of Brazil. India is exporting Sugar and is reported to have a big cane crop this year. Thailand is expecting improved production after drought induced yield losses last year. The EU had big production problems last year but is expecting much better production this year.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 1790 and 1870 July. Support is at 1720, 1710, and 1660 July, and resistance is at 1780, 1820, and 1850 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 461.00, 454.00, and 444.00 August, and resistance is at 471.00, 481.00, and 489.00 August.
General Comments: New York and London closed higher again yesterday. The harvests are over in West Africa. Ports in West Africa have been filled with Cocoa. European demand has been slow as the quarterly grind data showed a 3% decrease from a year ago in grindings. This has been caused by less demand created by the pandemic. Asian demand improved. North American data showed improved demand. But, the supplies are there for any increased demand.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.153 million bags. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,609 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2450, 2420, and 2400 July, with resistance at 2540, 2590, and 2630 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1630, 1600, and 1580 July, with resistance at 1670, 1690, and 1720 July.