About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were sharply lower as forecasts for beneficial precipitation in the Great Plains and Canadian Prairies were seen. Mostly dry conditions are in the forecast for this week in western Texas. Dry conditions remain in the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies although some western fringe areas did get some rains. Precipitation is expected to continue in western areas but eastern areas should stay dry. Kansas also got some beneficial precipitation over the weekend. Wheat remains a weather market, but the demand side has been weak. Demand remains disappointing but the production might not be there for better demand in the coming year. Corn prices are high so demand for feed wheat could increase.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will be near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 720, 702, and 701 July, with resistance at 745, 753, and 763 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 693, 667, and 661 July, with resistance at 722, 741, and 748 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 746, 724, and 710 July, and resistance is at 774, 784, and 787 July.

RICE
General Comments: Rice prices were lower on speculative selling seen in the other grains markets due to forecasts for increased precipitation and warmer temperatures for US growing areas. Rice areas have generally been wet although some parts of Texas could use a little rain. Temperatures have been cold, especially in Arkansas but the crop has been getting planted and is emerging, anyway. The cash market is working through PL-480 tenders for milled Rice. Texas and Louisiana are almost out of Rice, but there is Rice available in the other states, especially Arkansas. Asian and Mercosur markets were steady to lower last week. New crop months were a little higher but July was the real mover. New crop Rice is almost completely planted in Texas and in Louisiana. Mississippi and Arkansas are actively planting around the rains.
Overnight News: The Delta should get some big rains. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1413, 1408, and 1395 July, with resistance at 1455, 1462, and 1472 July.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed lower as better than expected rains hit the Midwest. The market remains concerned about the Safrinha crop production in Brazil. The rains fell from west to east in central Midwest areas and were very beneficial where they fell. Temperatures were cool. Western sections of the Midwest got crops planted with speed, but eastern areas were slower. Emergence has been about average in all areas. Emergence has been slow due to cold temperatures. Temperatures will be cooler this week and there will be precipitation to keep farmers from the fields. Overall planting conditions should be fairly good over the next week. There are also concerns about the production potential for the Safrinha crop in Brazil as growing areas have been warm and dry and look to stay that way longer term. Reports indicate that crops are being stressed due to the lack of rain. It is drier in central and parts of northern Brazil, and farmers have finally harvested the Soybeans area and planted the Winter Corn. The Winter Corn crop progress is well behind normal and it has been dry in major growing areas. There are worries that US Corn is priced out of the world market as US Corn is the highest price of any offering nation, but the lack of production of the second crop in Brazil should mean stronger demand for US Corn. Demand for US Corn has been coming at a stronger pace than estimated by USDA and it looks like US ending stocks can be significantly less than current projections by the end of the year.
Overnight News: China bought 680,000 tons of new crop US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 781 July. Support is at 698, 684, and 674 July, and resistance is at 736, 740, and 746 July. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 408, 406, and 400 July, and resistance is at 416, 423, and 426 July.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil were lower while Soybean Meal closed a little higher. The selling came after reports of beneficial rains for much of the Midwest over the weekend. The rally has been led by demand amid a very tight stocks situation here in the US. There is still crush demand and export demand even though the demand is less now than before and the market thinks the US is going to run out of Soybeans unless demand can be rationed with high prices. Some of that rationing is going on as US prices are much above offers from South America. The US does not have a lot of Soybeans in the country anymore as most producers have already sold. Buyers are scrambling for what is left. Brazil is rapidly exporting Soybeans. Harvest activities are done now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 1649 and 1728 July. Support is at 1575, 1563, and 1554 July, and resistance is at 1600, 1612, and 1624 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 446.00 and 462.00 July. Support is at 436.00, 430.00, and 423.00 July, and resistance is at 449.00, 452.00, and 458.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 6790 July. Support is at 6300, 6200, and 5920 July, with resistance at 6500, 6560, and 6600 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher for the week on good demand and worries about supplies inside Malaysia. Prices were lower yest4erday on increased stocks for April as shown by MPOB. Supplies in Indonesia are likely to increase this year according to the government there. The private sources showed that export demand is running ahead of last month so far this month, but the market fears the loss of Indian demand due to the big Coronavirus outbreak there. Ideas of tight supplies are still around but MPOB did show higher than expected ending stocks in its March data. Canola was sharply lower on improved growing and planting conditions. There was some rain and snow in western growing areas to improve the situation. Worries about South American production are supporting both markets as is cold and dry weather in the Prairies. Demand is thought to be great with crush margins favoring a lot of production of vegetable oils to feed the demand. The demand for bio fuels is about to increase and is one reason to see much stronger Soybean Oil and Canola prices.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with no objectives. Support is at 965.00, 931.00, and 896.00 July, with resistance at 1008.00, 1014.00, and 1020.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 4590 July. Support is at 4280, 4230, and 4090 July, with resistance at 4430, 4460, and 4520 July.

DJ Malaysia Palm Oil Exports Rose 32% in May 1-10, SGS Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the May 1-10 period are estimated to have risen about 32% on month to 455,285 metric tons, cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. said Tuesday.
The following are the major items in the SGS estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
May 1-10 April 1-10
RBD Palm Olein 149,525 77,367
RBD Palm Oil 45,205 23,547
RBD Palm Stearin 35,500 23,280
Crude Palm Oil 125,235 51,740
Total* 455,285 344,039
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included
SGS Malaysia is a division of the Switzerland-based Societe Generale de Surveillance Group. This content was automatically published based on data and/or text from the original source. For feedback, write to singaporeeditors@dowjones.com.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Scattered showers. Temperatures should average below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May +97 July +160 May +95 May +71 May
June +92 July +65 July +85 July
July +63 July +65 July +70 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – May 10
By MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 1018.50 12.60 July 2021 up 15.00
Basis: Thunder Bay 1060.90 85.00 July 2021 dn 30.00
Basis: Vancouver 1075.90 100.00 July 2021 dn 30.00
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – May 11
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 1217.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 1157.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1047.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 965.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 1220.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 1160.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1050.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 967.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 1175.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 1065.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 4,820.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 348.00 -02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.117)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – May 11
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 153,382 lots, or 9.41 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-21 6,111 6,111 6,086 6,100 6,065 6,098 33 111 4,956
Jul-21 6,063 6,156 6,050 6,131 6,108 6,103 -5 10,801 9,234
Sep-21 6,120 6,195 6,076 6,163 6,138 6,138 0 135,449 92,760
Nov-21 6,127 6,199 6,094 6,152 6,159 6,151 -8 3,565 20,056
Jan-22 6,119 6,198 6,094 6,173 6,145 6,152 7 2,157 8,511
Mar-22 6,086 6,188 6,086 6,160 6,134 6,142 8 1,299 4,446
Corn
Turnover: 646,944 lots, or 18.25 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-21 2,799 2,810 2,798 2,800 2,810 2,802 -8 400 4,873
Jul-21 2,833 2,838 2,810 2,830 2,829 2,824 -5 87,763 101,812
Sep-21 2,832 2,840 2,811 2,831 2,833 2,826 -7 431,048 613,324
Nov-21 2,799 2,806 2,780 2,793 2,797 2,792 -5 68,896 166,636
Jan-22 2,808 2,818 2,790 2,800 2,806 2,803 -3 33,342 74,426
Mar-22 2,805 2,810 2,784 2,795 2,797 2,799 2 25,495 25,241
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,476,368 lots, or 54.07 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-21 3,550 3,556 3,545 3,545 3,563 3,548 -15 190 6,361
Jul-21 3,592 3,621 3,551 3,588 3,566 3,584 18 103,270 126,753
Aug-21 3,702 3,714 3,652 3,681 3,683 3,681 -2 19,175 4,412
Sep-21 3,695 3,702 3,642 3,674 3,684 3,672 -12 1,086,497 1,486,066
Nov-21 3,704 3,708 3,622 3,674 3,689 3,673 -16 14,472 8,359
Dec-21 3,680 3,682 3,650 3,650 3,687 3,663 -24 39 280
Jan-22 3,702 3,702 3,632 3,659 3,693 3,663 -30 224,299 287,743
Mar-22 3,574 3,576 3,512 3,528 3,563 3,547 -16 28,426 187,624
Palm Oil
Turnover: 743,418 lots, or 59.04 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-21 – – – 9,004 9,008 9,004 -4 0 926
Jun-21 9,082 9,246 9,018 9,208 9,136 9,164 28 51 418
Jul-21 8,628 8,880 8,628 8,876 8,706 8,788 82 19 791
Aug-21 8,228 8,296 8,118 8,296 8,258 8,216 -42 12 171
Sep-21 7,966 8,054 7,836 7,998 8,012 7,966 -46 685,019 402,032
Oct-21 7,852 7,886 7,680 7,828 7,854 7,804 -50 14,225 19,456
Nov-21 7,770 7,804 7,598 7,728 7,778 7,732 -46 6,581 29,332
Dec-21 7,718 7,738 7,558 7,672 7,724 7,670 -54 1,811 24,796
Jan-22 7,602 7,666 7,466 7,616 7,642 7,582 -60 29,641 37,762
Feb-22 7,530 7,630 7,442 7,586 7,596 7,544 -52 5,709 3,964
Mar-22 7,450 7,616 7,374 7,572 7,588 7,542 -46 345 884
Apr-22 7,510 7,566 7,510 7,566 7,548 7,538 -10 5 13
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 827,301 lots, or 72.76 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-21 9,050 9,390 9,050 9,390 9,472 9,272 -200 77 1,067
Jul-21 9,108 9,108 8,898 9,088 9,108 9,010 -98 1,913 4,516
Aug-21 8,908 8,908 8,908 8,908 9,028 8,908 -120 3 645
Sep-21 8,900 8,914 8,712 8,850 8,928 8,806 -122 752,483 526,189
Nov-21 8,818 8,824 8,634 8,766 8,824 8,726 -98 25,976 32,518
Dec-21 8,774 8,774 8,578 8,722 8,802 8,686 -116 5,954 47,593
Jan-22 8,732 8,736 8,542 8,678 8,732 8,642 -90 40,379 55,167
Mar-22 8,574 8,590 8,476 8,550 8,608 8,560 -48 516 2,267
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322