About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

Crop Progress
Date 2-May 25-Apr 2020 Avg
Cotton Planted 16 12 17 16
Corn Planted 46 17 48 36
Corn Emerged 8 3 7 9
Soybeans Planted 24 8 21 11
Sorghum Planted 20 19 22 24
Rice Planted 54 47 48 60
Rice Emerged 38 26 31 43
Peanuts Planted 11 5 13 15
Sugarbeets Planterd 81 44 47 51
Oats Planted 72 59 65 62
Oats Emerged 47 37 42 43
Winter Wheat Headed 27 17 30 34
Spring Wheat Planted 49 28 27 32
Spring Wheat Emerged 14 7 6 10
Barley Planted 53 35 39 41
Barley Emerged 17 10 11 16

Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Winter Wheat This Week 6 13 33 42 6
Winter Wheat Last Week 6 13 32 43 6
Winter Wheat Last Year 4 10 31 48 7

Pasture and Range This Week 22 25 31 29 2
Pasture and Range Last Week
Pasture and Range Last Year 6 10 35 43 6

DJ U.S. March Coffee, Cocoa Imports-May 4
In kilograms from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to pounds
by Dow Jones.
—-Mar 2021—- —-Feb 2021—-
-coffee- kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
coffee, unroasted 115,105,082 253,806,706 108,138,056 238,444,413
coffee, roasted 8,334,604 18,377,802 7,868,877 17,350,874
coffee, soluble
instant 5,061,172 11,159,884 3,818,801 8,420,456
-Cocoa-
cocoa beans 100,574,480 221,766,728 51,776,602 114,167,407
sweetened bars/block
10 lbs or over 2,867,384 6,322,582 1,548,487 3,414,414
for retail candy 0 0 0 0
cocoa butter 7,711,311 17,003,441 6,675,349 14,719,145
cocoa paste,
not defatted 7,296,529 16,088,846 3,437,135 7,578,883
cocoa paste
defatted 4,903,064 10,811,256 3,790,957 8,359,060
cocoa powder,
unsweetened 8,847,451 19,508,629 7,830,500 17,266,253
cocoa powder,
sweetened 44,538 98,206 71,550 157,768
confectioners
coating 5,790,909 12,768,954 4,238,617 9,346,150
candy containing

COTTON
General Comments: Futures were mostly higher but lower in July with support coming from dry weather in Texas and resistance from weaker demand as seen in the weekly export sales report. The demand for US Cotton in the export market was weaker last week and have been trending lower for the last few weeks. The US stock market has been generally firm to help support ideas of a better economy here and potentially increased demand for Cotton products. It is dry in western and southern Texas and the planting of Cotton is being delayed. Some showers are reported in western areas to help there, but it is still dry overall.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions except for scattered showers today and near to above normal temperatures and Southeast will get dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have scattered showers and near to below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 83.68 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 95,536 bales, from 95,536 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 67 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 8600, 8450, and 8120 July, with resistance of 8920, 9170 and 9270 July.

DJ U.S. March Cotton Exports-May 4
In kilograms and in running 480-pound bales. Source. U.S. Department
Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Mar 21 Feb 21 Jan 21 Mar 20
Upland, under 1 inch 29,075,913 14,109,703 11,141,483 25,245,674
1 to 1 1/8 inch 125,686,165 133,265,328 152,725,602 141,742,437
upland 1 1/8 and over 9,759,875 10,507,545 178,550,486 255,948,162
Amer pima, over 1 1/8 inc 191,947,541 184,273,849 9,032,022 13,279,934
All cotton 356,469,494 342,156,425 351,449,593 436,216,207
——- In Running 480-Pound Bales ——-
Mar 21 Feb 21 Jan 21 Mar 20
Upland, under 1 inch 133,545 64,805 51,172 115,952
1 to 1 1/8 inch 577,272 612,083 701,463 651,018
upland 1 1/8 and over 44,827 48,261 820,076 1,175,560
Amer pima, over 1 1/8 inc 881,608 846,363 41,484 60,994
All cotton 1,637,251 1,571,512 1,614,195 2,003,525

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed slightly lower and is testing support areas on the daily charts. The price action was bad last week and futures act as if lower prices were coming soon. Moderate temperatures are expected for Florida this week. The weather in Florida is good with a few showers or dry weather to promote good tree health and fruit formation. The hurricane season is coming and a big storm could threaten trees and fruit. That is still a couple of months away. It is dry in Brazil and crop conditions are called good even with drier than normal soils. Stress to trees could return if the dry weather continues as is in the forecast. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good. It is dry in northern and western Mexican growing areas.
Overnight News: Florida should get dry conditions this week and scattered showers this weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 18 contracts were posted for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 68 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with objectives of 108.00, 107.00, and 102.00 July. Support is at 110.00, 108.00, and 106.00 July, with resistance at 114.00, 115.00, and 116.00 July.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York closed lower and London was closed for the day. Trends are down on the daily charts and some further selling is possible. Futures were higher last week as the fears of dry weather impacting the Brazil production continued. It remains generally dry there and there are no forecasts for any significant rains in Coffee areas. Some cooperatives and the export association are calling for a significant reduction in production with a 30% loss in production potential mentioned. It was dry at flowering time as well. It is also the off year in the two year production cycle. Production conditions elsewhere in Latin America are good with good conditions reported in northern South America and improved conditions reported in Central America after devasting floods early in the growing cycle. Conditions are reported to be generally good in Asia and Africa.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 1.945 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 127.14 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers or dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE said that 0 contracts were tendered for delivery against NY May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 980 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 139.00 and 135.00 July. Support is at 138.00, 134.00, and 132.00 July, and resistance is at 143.00, 148.00 and 151.00 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1440, 1410, and 1390 July, and resistance is at 1480, 1500, and 1510 July.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York was lower and London was closed. Drought conditions continued in Brazil. The seasonal crush is off to a slow start and Sugar content of the cane is reduced in initial industry reports from the center-south of Brazil. The primary growing region has been dry in Brazil. Production has been hurt due to dry weather earlier in the year. India is exporting Sugar and is reported to have a big cane crop this year. Thailand is expecting improved production after drought induced yield losses last year. Exports are expected by USDA to be higher in the coming year. The EU had big production problems last year but is expecting much better production this year.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1650, 1610, and 1580 July, and resistance is at 1710, 1730, and 1780 July. Trends in London are down with objectives of 434.00 and 407.00 August. Support is at 442.00, 439.00, and 436.00 August, and resistance is at 454.00, 461.00, and 467.00 August.

COCOA
General Comments: New York was a little lower and London was closed. Trends started to turn down in both markets late last week. The main crop harvest is over in West Africa and the mid crop harvest is active. Ports in West Africa have been filled with Cocoa. European demand has been slow as the quarterly grind data showed a 3% decrease from a year ago in grindings. This has been caused by less demand created by the pandemic. Asian demand improved. North American data showed improved demand.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.883 million bags. ICE said that 132 notices were posted for delivery against May contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,596 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2350 and 2270 July. Support is at 2320, 2290, and 2260 July, with resistance at 2420, 2470, and 2500 July. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1580 and 1530 July. Support is at 1610, 1590, and 1570 July, with resistance at 1650, 1670, and 1690 July.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322