About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – May 3
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND WEIGHED
THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT. NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS,
COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING APR 29, 2021
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 04/29/2021 04/22/2021 04/30/2020 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 499 24 0 33,143 30,548
CORN 2,139,077 1,954,012 1,349,204 43,374,708 23,775,758
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 509 520
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 0 0 0 4,290 3,343
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 235,496 182,614 198,359 5,618,016 2,647,538
SOYBEANS 143,418 284,074 381,177 55,458,814 33,778,843
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 0
WHEAT 509,932 581,087 588,193 23,128,846 23,096,816
Total 3,028,422 3,001,811 2,516,933 127,618,326 83,333,366
————————————————————————
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

Crop Progress
Date 2-May 25-Apr 2020 Avg
Cotton Planted 16 12 17 16
Corn Planted 46 17 48 36
Corn Emerged 8 3 7 9
Soybeans Planted 24 8 21 11
Sorghum Planted 20 19 22 24
Rice Planted 54 47 48 60
Rice Emerged 38 26 31 43
Peanuts Planted 11 5 13 15
Sugarbeets Planterd 81 44 47 51
Oats Planted 72 59 65 62
Oats Emerged 47 37 42 43
Winter Wheat Headed 27 17 30 34
Spring Wheat Planted 49 28 27 32
Spring Wheat Emerged 14 7 6 10
Barley Planted 53 35 39 41
Barley Emerged 17 10 11 16

Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Winter Wheat This Week 6 13 33 42 6
Winter Wheat Last Week 6 13 32 43 6
Winter Wheat Last Year 4 10 31 48 7

Pasture and Range This Week 22 25 31 29 2
Pasture and Range Last Week
Pasture and Range Last Year 6 10 35 43 6

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – May 4
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL May May 05, 2021 9 Feb 26, 2021
SOYBEAN OIL May May 05, 2021 12 Apr 29, 2021
ROUGH RICE May May 05, 2021 55 Apr 28, 2021
KC HRW WHEAT May May 05, 2021 311 Apr 29, 2021
SOYBEAN May May 05, 2021 64 Apr 22, 2021
WHEAT May May 05, 2021 36 Apr 15, 2021

DJ U.S. March Grain Exports-May 4
In kilograms (top) and in bushels (bottom), except flour in cwt and malt
in pounds. /1 denotes includes commercial and donated. Source: U.S. Department
of Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Mar 21 Feb 21 Jan 21 Mar 20
Barley 1,290,377 3,519,303 1,642,708 1,984,946
Corn /1 9,468,433,000 6,308,916,000 5,806,272,000 4,615,912,000
Sorghum 795,273,000 573,516,000 876,538,000 497,459,000
Oats 6,506,883 6,257,115 4,461,944 3,013,947
Rye 67,664 16,784 0 37,342
Wheat /1 2,147,217,704 1,826,840,832 1,977,587,812 1,826,731,079
wheat flour /1 24,765,276 17,243,737 19,165,329 24,906,677
Malt 32,634,204 24,335,619 33,135,215 35,971,083
——- In Bushels, CWT or Pounds ——-
Mar 21 Feb 21 Jan 21 Mar 20
Barley 59,266 161,639 75,448 91,167
Corn /1 372,751,916 248,368,503 228,580,486 181,718,564
Sorghum 31,308,194 22,578,096 34,507,423 19,583,895
Oats 448,284 431,076 307,400 207,642
Rye 2,664 661 0 1,470
Wheat /1 78,895,935 67,124,221 72,663,168 67,120,188
wheat flour /1 545,981 380,159 422,523 549,098
Malt 71,946,117 53,650,865 73,050,657 79,302,677
1/Includes commercial and donated.

DJ U.S. March Oilseed, Meal, Oils/Fats Exports-May 4
In kilograms (top). Oils in pounds, soybeans in bushels, meal and hulls in
short tons (bottom). Source: U.S. Department of Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Mar 21 Feb 21 Jan 21 Mar 20
soybeans 2,296,299,759 4,559,707,144 8,829,339,622 2,571,519,925
soyoil 70,690,293 116,117,407 148,714,509 145,507,537
crude 60,705,266 103,596,791 135,825,282 130,366,996
refined 150,517 53,354 49,483 283,982
other/1 9,356,016 12,081,667 12,578,100 14,397,811
hydrogenated 478,494 385,595 261,644 458,748
cottonseed oil 4,238,401 1,750,640 1,564,427 2,864,334
crude 1,693,901 572,221 41,624 542,000
refined 1,088,872 502,789 737,802 1,014,467
other/1 1,455,628 672,001 783,096 1,307,867
hydrogenated 0 3,629 1,905 0
sunseeds 370,936 331,981 365,832 9,965
sunseed oil 5,326,358 2,172,906 4,626,001 3,221,614
rapeseed 9,347,171 10,560,111 17,928,251 18,269,059
rapeseed oil 18,603,484 13,909,404 7,409,608 6,354,345
crude 9,069,627 7,855,670 2,710,450 1,413,698
refined 9,533,857 6,053,734 4,699,158 4,940,647
linseed meal 173,146 292,019 228,532 223,298
cottonseed meal 3,336,784 4,642,982 2,977,963 7,594,851
soymeal 965,665,030 865,105,211 1,041,386,767 966,833,938
soymeal/flour 206,458,329 310,647,496 271,401,571 236,117,297
soymeal hulls 6,624,000 18,989,000 9,636,000 5,297,000
lard 1,948,282 1,401,050 5,754,714 1,806,097
edible tallow 12,419,198 7,221,241 9,261,075 7,695,279
inedible tallow 22,012,764 21,327,681 19,329,964 45,309,459
ch white grease 0 7,275 14,669 11,951
——- In Bushels, Pounds or Short Tons ——-
Mar 21 Feb 21 Jan 21 Mar 20
soybeans 84,373,707 167,538,838 324,419,366 94,486,213
soyoil 155,845,446 255,995,106 327,859,427 320,789,263
crude 133,832,226 228,391,868 299,443,541 287,410,078
refined 331,833 117,625 109,091 626,073
other/1 20,626,488 26,635,521 27,729,969 31,741,745
hydrogenated 1,054,899 850,092 576,826 1,011,366
cottonseed oil 9,344,076 3,859,501 3,448,972 6,314,777
crude 3,734,413 1,261,532 91,765 1,194,906
refined 2,400,552 1,108,460 1,626,575 2,236,517
other/1 3,209,111 1,481,509 1,726,431 2,883,354
hydrogenated 0 8,001 4,200 0
sunseeds 817,774 731,893 806,522 21,969
sunseed oil 11,742,611 4,790,439 10,198,588 7,102,444
rapeseed 20,606,988 23,281,064 39,525,035 40,276,388
rapeseed oil 41,013,669 30,664,992 16,335,392 14,008,935
crude 19,995,108 17,318,791 5,975,520 3,116,671
refined 21,018,560 13,346,201 10,359,872 10,892,264
linseed meal 191 322 252 246
cottonseed meal 3,678 5,118 3,283 8,372
soymeal 1,064,453 953,605 1,147,921 1,065,741
soymeal flour/me 227,579 342,427 299,166 260,272
soymeal hulls 7,302 20,932 10,622 5,839
lard 4,295,227 3,088,787 12,686,975 3,981,763
edible tallow 27,379,650 15,920,114 20,417,179 16,965,189
inedible tallow 48,529,846 47,019,496 42,615,283 99,890,275
ch white grease 0 16,039 32,340 26,347

DJ U.S. March Grain Imports-May 4
In kilograms, from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to
pounds by Dow Jones.
—-Mar 2021—- —-Feb 2021—-
kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
durum wheat 95,882 211,420 95,040 209,563
spring wheat 8,642,512 19,056,739 10,427,054 22,991,654
winter wheat 15,000,740 33,076,632 8,958,754 19,754,053
wheat/meslin 19,932,148 43,950,386 18,056,549 39,814,691
TOTAL WHEAT 43,671,282 96,295,177 37,537,397 82,769,960
barley 2,801,213 6,176,675 4,326,395 9,539,701
oats 2,218,283 4,891,314 1,582,212 3,488,777
corn 47,774,741 105,343,304 17,487,632 38,560,229
other corn 6,655,290 14,674,914 4,374,132 9,644,961
TOTAL CORN 54,430,031 120,018,218 21,861,764 48,205,190

DJ U.S. Mar Soymeal, Vegetable Oils/Oilseed Imports-May 4
In kilograms from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to pounds
by Dow Jones.
—-Mar 2021—- —-Feb 2021—-
kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
coconut oil 32,153,315 70,898,060 19,506,361 43,011,526
palm kernel oil 23,912,891 52,727,925 31,278,210 68,968,453
palm oil 100,959,514 222,615,728 121,335,126 267,543,953
soybean 21,279,629 46,921,582 20,021,577 44,147,577
soymeal 0 0 0 0
soyoil 9,639,459 21,255,007 9,707,054 21,404,054
rapeseed oil
edible 157,202,623 346,631,784 123,481,801 272,277,371
rapeseed oil,
inedible 77,093 169,990 98,920 218,119

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower and closed near support at recent lows on the daily charts. Scattered showers were reported in west Texas over the weekend, but futures made new highs for the move before selling off in Chicago. Minneapolis held better as dry conditions remain in the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies. Wheat remains a weather market, but the sellers were worried about the demand side being very weak. The weather remains too dry in the northern Great Plains and in the Canadian Prairies and farmers have planted into dry soils. Some showers are possible in both areas over the next week. It has been mostly dry in the southern Great Plains. The Great Plains should stay mostly dry but some big rains are forecast for the southern Midwest over the next few days. Demand remains disappointing but the production might not be there for better demand in the coming year. Corn prices are high so demand for feed wheat could increase.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will be near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 712, 701, and 673 July, with resistance at 750, 769, and 776 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 683, 667, and 661 July, with resistance at 701, 719, and 741 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 746, 724, and 710 July, and resistance is at 774, 780, and 786 July.

RICE
General Comments: Rice prices drifted a little higher after trading close to unchanged for much of the day. The cash market has not felt any increased demand lately and mill operations are reported to be on the slow side. Texas is about out of Rice, but there is Rice available in the other states, especially Arkansas. Asian and Mercosur markets were steady to lower last week. New crop months were a little lower. New crop Rice is about planted in Texas and in Louisiana. Mississippi and Arkansas are actively planting.
Overnight News: The Delta should get some big rains. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1353, 133, and 1329 July, with resistance at 1376, 1384, and 1589 July.

CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed lower in most months yesterday, but July closed higher. Ideas of strong demand continued to offer support. Ideas of ra[id planting progress are hurting new crop prices. Temperatures will be cooler this week and there will be precipitation to keep farmers from the fields. Overall planting conditions should be fairly good over the next week. There are also concerns about the production potential for the Safrinha crop in Brazil as growing areas have been warm and dry and look to stay that way longer term. It is drier in central and parts of northern Brazil, and farmers have finally harvested the Soybeans area and planted the Winter Corn. The Winter Corn crop progress is well behind normal and it has been dry in major growing areas. There are worries that US Corn is priced out of the world market as US Corn is the highest price of any offering nation. Demand for US Corn has been coming at a stronger pace than estimated by USDA and it looks like US ending stocks can be significantly less than current projections by the end of the year. Demand for US Corn is expected to drop now due to price spreads between the US and South America, but so far demand has held strong.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 717 and 781 July. Support is at 671, 653, and 637 July, and resistance is at 698, 704, and 710 July. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 400, 386, and 384 July, and resistance is at 414, 417, and 420 July.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were lower and Soybean Oil was higher as Soybeans got hurt by weaker demand ideas. Export demand has been softening for Soybeans for the last few weeks, but the US does not have that many left to sell.. There is still crush demand and export demand even though the demand is less now than before and the market thinks the US is going to run out of Soybeans unless demand can be rationed with high prices. Some of that rationing is going on as US prices are much above offers from South America. The US does not have a lot of Soybeans in the country anymore as most producers have already sold. Buyers are scrambling for what is left. Brazil is rapidly exporting Soybeans. Harvest activities are done now. China has been buying for next year here but now is buying mostly in South America. US internal demand has been strong. Soybean Meal is under pressure due to the big buying seen in Soybean Oil causing more production of Meal as well.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1491, 1471, and 1448 July, and resistance is at 1563, 1575, and 1588 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 410.00, 409.00, and 396.00 July. Support is at 412.00, 407.00, and 400.00 July, and resistance is at 424.00, 430.00, and 439.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 6790 July. Support is at 6200, 5920, and 5850 July, with resistance at 6490, 6560, and 6600 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was sharply higher on strong monthly demand reports from private surveyors and price action in the other competing markets. It was higher today on the strong export data and on Chicago price action. The private sources showed that export demand is running well ahead of last month for this month, but the market fears the loss of Indian demand due to the big Coronavirus outbreak there. Ideas of tight supplies are still around but MPOB did show higher than expected ending stocks in its March data. Ideas are that production can seasonally increase. The production of Palm Oil is down in both Malaysia and Indonesia. Canola was lower after a choppy session. Ideas of tight supplies combined with a drought in the Canadian Prairies supported the market but weaker demand ideas were bad for prices. Worries about South American production are supporting both markets as is cold and dry weather in the Prairies. Demand is thought to be great with crush margins favoring a lot of production of vegetable oils to feed the demand. The demand for bio fuels is about to increase and is one reason to see much stronger Soybean Oi and Canola prices.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 895.00 and 940.00 July. Support is at 832.00, 808.00, and 780.00 July, with resistance at 883.00, 886.00, and 892.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3970, 3910, and 3870 July, with resistance at 4280, 4340, and 4400 July.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Scattered showers. Temperatures should average below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May +61 May +140 May +100 May +66 May
June +90 July +65 July +88 July
July +63 July +65 July +70 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – May 3
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 923.70 15.00 May 2021 up 15.90
Basis: Thunder Bay 949.00 85.00 Jul 2021 dn 4.70
Basis: Vancouver 964.00 100.00 Jul 2021 dn 9.70
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084, or cell
204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – May 4
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 1157.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 1102.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 992.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 917.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 1160.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 1105.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 995.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 920.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 1120.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 1012.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 4,600.00 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 347.00 -03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.122)

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322