About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Futures were higher on Friday and for the week with support coming from dry weather in Texas and resistance from weaker demand as seen in the weekly export sales report. The demand for US Cotton in the export market was weaker last week, but has been strong even with the Coronavirus causing disruptions at the retail level around the world. The US stock market has been generally firm to help support ideas of a better economy here and potentially increased demand for Cotton products. It is dry in western and southern Texas and the planting of Cotton is being delayed. Some showers are reported in western areas to help there, but it is still dry overall.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions except for scattered showers tomorrow and Saturday and near to above normal temperatures and Southeast will get dry conditions except for scattered showers tomorrow and Saturday and below normal temperatures. Texas will have dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures. Temperatures will average near to above normal this weekend. The USDA average price is now 83.90 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 95,536 bales, from 95,536 bales yesterday. ICE said that 1 notice was posted for delivery against May contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 67 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 8600, 8450, and 8120 July, with resistance of 8870, 9170 and 9270 July.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed slightly lower in range trading. The price action was bad last week and futures act as if lower prices were coming soon. The demand for FCOJ is said to be weaker. The weather has turned warmer so less flu is around and the increased vaccination pace means that the coronavirus is less. Moderate temperatures are expected for Florida this week. The weather in Florida is good with a few showers or dry weather to promote good tree health and fruit formation. The hurricane season is coming and a big storm could threaten trees and fruit. That is still a couple of months away. It is dry in Brazil and crop conditions are called good even with drier than normal soils. Stress to trees could return if the dry weather continues as is in the forecast. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production. It is dry in northern and western Mexican growing areas.
Overnight News: Florida should get dry conditions this week and scattered showers this weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 50 contracts were posted for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 50 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with objectives of 108.00, 107.00, and 102.00 July. Support is at 110.00, 108.00, and 106.00 July, with resistance at 114.00, 115.00, and 116.00 July.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed lower on Friday as what appeared to be speculative profit taking hit the pit. Futures were higher last week as the fears of dry weather impacting the Brazil production continued. It remains generally dry there and there are no forecasts for any significant rains in Coffee areas. Some cooperatives and the export association are calling for a significant reduction in production with a 30% loss in production potential mentioned. It was dry at flowering time as well. It is also the off year in the two year production cycle. Production conditions elsewhere in Latin America are mixed with good conditions reported in northern South America and improved conditions reported in Central America after devasting floods early in the growing cycle. Conditions are reported to be generally good in Asia and Africa.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 1.918 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 128.73 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers or dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE said that 0 contracts were tendered for delivery against NY May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 980 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 138.00, 134.00, and 132.00 July, and resistance is at 143.00, 148.00 and 151.00 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1440, 1410, and 1390 July, and resistance is at 1480, 1500, and 1510 July.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York was higher last week as the drought conditions continued in Brazil. London closed lower on reports of selling from India. Fears of dry Brazilian weather continued. The seasonal crush is off to a slow start and Sugar content of the cane is reduced in initial industry reports from the center-south of Brazil. Ideas of stronger Ethanol demand helped support Sugar prices last week as the competition is back for crushing and refining use. Current Sugar demand is called average. The primary growing region has been dry in Brazil. Production has been hurt due to dry weather earlier in the year. India is exporting Sugar and is reported to have a big cane crop this year. Thailand is expecting improved production after drought induced yield losses last year. Exports are expected by USDA to be higher in the coming year. The EU had big production problems last year but is expecting much better production this year.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1650, 1610, and 1580 July, and resistance is at 1710, 1780, and 1820 July. Trends in London are down with objectives of 434.00 and 407.00 August. Support is at 442.00, 439.00, and 436.00 August, and resistance is at 454.00, 461.00, and 467.00 August.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed lower with much of the selling seen on Friday. Trends started to turn down in both markets late last week. The main crop harvest is over in West Africa and the mid crop harvest is active. Ports in West Africa have been filled with Cocoa. European demand has been slow as the quarterly grind data showed a 3% decrease from a year ago in grindings. This has been caused by less demand created by the pandemic. Asian demand improved. North American data showed improved demand.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.812 million bags. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,464 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2350 and 2270 July. Support is at 2360, 2320, and 2290 July, with resistance at 2420, 2470, and 2500 July. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1580 and 1530 July. Support is at 1610, 1590, and 1570 July, with resistance at 1650, 1670, and 1690 July.

 

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322