Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Futures were lower yesterday and gave back the gains of the previous day. Dry weather continues to threaten Cotton everywhere in the Great Plains although a few showers are in the forecast. It remains very dry in much of Texas right now and that is the most important sate for US production. There are doubts that the export sales report will be strong this week due to the higher prices. The demand for US Cotton in the export market has been strong even with the Coronavirus causing disruptions at the retail level around the world. The US stock market has been generally firm to help support ideas of a better economy here and potentially increased demand for Cotton products. It is dry in western and southern Texas and the planting of Cotton is being delayed. Some showers are expected in western areas in the next couple of days to help there, but it is still dry overall.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions except for scattered showers tomorrow and Saturday and near to above normal temperatures and Southeast will get dry conditions except for scattered showers tomorrow and Saturday and below normal temperatures. Texas will have dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures. Temperatures will average near to above normal this weekend. The USDA average price is now 85.34 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 95,536 bales, from 95,536 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 66 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 9000 July. Support is at 8600, 8450, and 8120 July, with resistance of 9160, 9270 and 9420 July.
General Comments: FCOJ closed slightly lower in range trading. The price action has been bad this week and futures act as if lower prices were coming soon. The demand for FCOJ is said to be weaker. The weather has turned warmer so less flu is around and the increased vaccination pace means that the coronavirus is less. Moderate temperatures are expected for Florida this week. The weather in Florida is good with a few showers or dry weather to promote good tree health and fruit formation. The hurricane season is coming and a big storm could threaten trees and fruit. That is still a couple of months away. It is dry in Brazil and crop conditions are called good even with drier than normal soils. Stress to trees could return if the dry weather continues as is in the forecast. Mexican crop conditions in central and southern areas are called good with rains, but earlier dry weather might have hurt production. It is dry in northern and western Mexican growing areas.
Overnight News: Florida should get dry conditions this week and scattered showers this weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 110.00, 108.00, and 106.00 May, with resistance at 114.00, 115.00, and 116.00 May.
General Comments: New York closed little changed and London closed higher again yesterday as the fears of dry weather impacting the Brazil production continued. It remains generally dry there and there are no forecasts for any significant rains in Coffee areas. Some cooperatives and the export association are calling for a significant reduction in production with a 30% loss in production potential mentioned. It was dry at flowering time as well. It is also the off year in the two year production cycle. Production conditions elsewhere in Latin America are mixed with good conditions reported in northern South America and improved conditions reported in Central America after devasting floods early in the growing cycle. Conditions are reported to be generally good in Asia and Africa.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 1.918 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 130.87 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get scattered showers or dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE said that 21 contracts were tendered for delivery against NY May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 876 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 142.00, 138.00, and 134.00 July, and resistance is at 148.00, 151.00 and 153.00 July. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1450 July. Support is at 1440, 1410, and 1390 July, and resistance is at 1470, 1500, and 1510 July.
General Comments: New York and London closed lower and gave back the gains of the previous day on reports of selling from India. Fears of dry Brazilian weather continued. The seasonal crush is off to a slow start and Sugar content of the cane is reduced in initial industry reports from the center-south of Brazil. Ideas of stronger Ethanol demand helped support Sugar prices last week as the competition is back for crushing and refining use. Current Sugar demand is called average. The primary growing region has been dry in Brazil. Production has been hurt due to dry weather earlier in the year. India is exporting Sugar and is reported to have a big cane crop this year. Thailand is expecting improved production after drought induced yield losses last year. Exports are expected by USDA to be higher in the coming year. The EU had big production problems last year.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 1700, 1680, and 1660 July, and resistance is at 1780, 1820, and 1850 July. Trends in London are up with objectives of 484.00 August. Support is at 459.00, 450.00, and 442.00 August, and resistance is at 481.00, 488.00, and 494.00 August.
General Comments: New York and London closed mixed to lower in range trading. The main crop harvest is over in West Africa and the mid crop harvest is active. Ports in West Africa have been filled with Cocoa. That is changing a bit as the governments of Ivory Coast and Ghana have given up on their fair wage scheme to try to tax exporters and buyers. European demand has been slow as the quarterly grind data showed a 3% decrease from a year ago in grindings. This has been caused by less demand created by the pandemic. Asian demand improved. North American data showed improved demand.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.816 million bags. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,464 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2450, 2430, and 2420 July, with resistance at 2500, 2520, and 2570 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1610, 1590, and 1570 July, with resistance at 1670, 1690, and 1720 July.