Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Wheat markets were sharply higher yesterday as Wheat remains a weather market. The weather remains too dry in the northern Great Plains and in the Canadian Prairies and farmers have planted into dry soils. It has been very cold and some Winterkill was possible in the central and southern Great Plains as well as the Midwest. The most damage from the freezing temperatures was expected to be in Oklahoma. There will be some precipitation with the colder air which should be mostly light but beneficial for the short term. Demand remains disappointing but the production might not be there for better demand in the coming year. Corn prices are high so demand for feed wheat could increase. The chart trends are up on the daily charts and on the weekly charts.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with no objectives. Support is at 712, 697 and 688 May, with resistance at 750, 756, and 762 May. Trends in Kansas City are up with no objectives. Support is at 674, 664, and 650 May, with resistance at 714, 720, and 726 May. Trends in Minneapolis are up with no objectives. Support is at 720, 704, and 679 May, and resistance is at 752, 758, and 764 May.
General Comments: Rice was lower in old crop months but higher in new crop months. Ideas of weakening demand hurt the nearby months. The export demand has been primarily for paddy Rice and not for milled Rice. The cash market has not felt any increased demand lately and mill operations are reported to be on the slow side. Texas is about out of Rice, but there is Rice available in the other states, especially Arkansas. Asian and Mercosur markets were steady to lower last week. New crop months were a little lower. New crop Rice is getting planted in Texas and planting is more than three quarters done in Louisiana. Mississippi and Arkansas are starting planting.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions today, then some big rains. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with no objectives. Support is at 1320, 1310, and 1307 May, with resistance at 1330, 1345, and 1553 May.
CORN AND OATS:
General Comments: Corn closed sharply higher to limit up on what appeared to be additional speculative and commercial buying based on ideas of strong demand and long term weather outlooks for warm and dry weather west of the Mississippi River. Temperatures will be warmer this week but there will be precipitation to keep farmers from the fields after a cold week last week. There are also concerns about the production potential for the Safrinha crop in Brazil as growing areas have been warm and dry and look to stay that way longer term. Oats were higher. There is talk of new Chinese interest in buying US Corn. Chinese demand had been strong until recently and it looks like they need the Corn. Prices inside China for Corn remain extremely high. It is drier in central and parts of northern Brazil, and farmers have finally harvested the Soybeans area and planted the Winter Corn. The Winter Corn crop progress is well behind normal and it has been dry in major growing areas. Demand for US Corn has been coming at a stronger pace than estimated by USDA and it looks like US ending stocks can be significantly less than current projections by the end of the year.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with no objectives. Support is at 660, 640, and 624 May, and resistance is at 682, 688, and 694 May. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 427 May. Support is at 399, 393, and 390 May, and resistance is at 411, 418, and 424 May.
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were sharply higher. There is still crush demand and export demand even though the demand is less now than before and the market thinks the US is going to run out of Soybeans unless demand can be rationed with high prices. The US does not have a lot of Soybeans in the country anymore as most producers have already sold. Buyers are scrambling for what is left. Brazil is rapidly exporting Soybeans. The Brazil harvest had been delayed due to late planting dates early due to dry weather and now too much rain that has caused harvest delays and some quality problems in the north as well. Harvest activities are done now. China has been buying for next year here but now is buying mostly in South America. US internal demand has been strong. Soybean Meal is under pressure due to the big buying seen in Soybean Oil although both were higher yesterday. Production of DDG can increase in the near future as ethanol demand improves and more people start driving again.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 1560 and 1630 May. Support is at 1525, 1500, and 1460 May, and resistance is at 1550, 1556, and 1568 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with no objectives. Support is at 424.00, 415.00, and 413.00 May, and resistance is at 436.00, 442.00, and 452.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with no objectives. Support is at 6260, 6020, and 5820 May, with resistance at 6540, 6600, and 6660 May.
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower on demand concerns about India and its worsening Covid situation. The private sources showed that export demand is running well ahead of last month so far this month. Ideas of tight supplies are still around but MPOB did show higher than expected ending stocks in its March data released last week. An analyst said on Friday that supplies available to the market would increase over the next several months. The production of Palm Oil is down in both Malaysia and Indonesia. Canola was higher on ideas of tight supplies combined with a drought in the Canadian Prairies. Canada has bought a couple of cargoes of Rapeseed from Ukraine and might buy more due to price spreads between the two producing countries. Worries about South American production are supporting both markets as is cold and dry weather in the Prairies. Demand is thought to be great with crush margins favoring a lot of production of vegetable oils to feed the demand. The demand for bio fuels is about to increase and is one reason to see much stronger Soybean Oi and Canola prices.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with no objectives. Support is at 885.00, 855.00, and 844.00 May, with resistance at 902.00, 908.00, and 916.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3850, 3810, and 3760 July, with resistance at 4010, 4280, and 4340 July.
Midwest Weather Forecast: Rain tomorrow, then drier. Temperatures should average above normal early this week, then near normal.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322